October real trend report

[fisher]

The October real trend report was in the Walton Sun today.

A summary of the data--

SFH sales volume down 44% (on top of the October 2005 decrease of 23%)
Condo sales volume down 24% (on top of the Oct 2005 decrease of 3%)
Lots sales volume down 41% (on top of the Oct 2005 decrease of 56%)

SFH average price actually increased 20% (although YTD Oct avg price is flat)
Condo avg price down 18%
Lot avg price down 45%

You can see the data in the Sun (but you need to pull out the calculator to compute the average price--I didn't have a calc so I did the math in my head, someone should check my numbers to make sure I didn't make an error in the avg price calcs)

Smiling J usually posts the actual report--maybe he will do so again this month.

 

[Camp Creek Kid]

With SFH prices up slightly, does this mean we've hit the trough and are on the way back up?

 

[SHELLY]

With SFH prices up slightly, does this mean we've hit the trough and are on the way back up?

With a sales volume down 44% and flat sale prices y-o-y, one or two "higher priced" sales (albeit at a 'bargain prices') can bump the month-to-month median sale price up no problem.

If a buyer who only wanted to spend $1.5M came along and managed to talk a seller down off the roof (especially if the house has been sitting on the market for a year with "dream price" of $2M), that can easily move the median prices up from the previous month when there were no "higher-end" sales.

I doubt you'll see the bottom of a trough and a turn-around during the winter months.

BTW, didn't the NAR say 2006 would be "the third best year after consecutive records in 2004 and 2005"? I don't see the chance for any repeats of 2004/2005, so what we've seen in 2006 may just be as good as it gets

 

[fisher]

With a sales volume down 44% and flat sale prices y-o-y, one or two "higher priced" sales (albeit at a 'bargain prices') can bump the month-to-month median sale price up no problem.

If a buyer who only wanted to spend $1.5M came along and managed to talk a seller down off the roof (especially if the house has been sitting on the market for a year with "dream price" of $2M), that can easily move the median prices up from the previous month when there were no "higher-end" sales.

I doubt you'll see the bottom of a trough and a turn-around during the winter months.

BTW, didn't the NAR say 2006 would be "the third best year after consecutive records in 2004 and 2005"? I don't see the chance for any repeats of 2004/2005, so what we've seen in 2006 may just be as good as it gets

Shelly is correct. With such a small sample size, one or two big dollar sales can swing the average price significantly. A better way to look at the numbers would be the median price but I don't have the data to find that number.

In October 2006, there was one home sold for $5.1 million and one sold for $4.3 million. No sales recorded in October 2005 were for more than $3 million. So, the averages are probably a bit skewed. It is difficult to make predictions off of one months data.