U.S. Census Bureau says state will become third largest by 2011

[Joe Complete]

It is hard to imagine the real estate demand slowing down with these projections....

U.S. Census Bureau says state will become third largest by 2011

http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/local/11447440.htm

"Florida will absorb another 12.7 million new residents by 2030, more than any other state in the union, according to projections the U.S. Census Bureau released today.

By 2011, Florida will surpass New York as the third largest state in the country.

Florida will grow by 80 percent by 2030, jumping from nearly 16 million in 2000 to 28.7 million in 2030. That is the third-fastest growth rate in America."

 

[beachmouse]

Which is why I don't see a housing bubble hitting the state in the same way it would a low population growth state like New York or Illinois. More and more people, and many areas are already running out of buildable land in desirable areas. Ft. Lauderdale-Broward is effectively built out. You just can't go any further into the Everglades there. Miami-Dade is getting close to build out as well. Even in inland areas, you're starting to see very little buildable land close to the cities. Seminole County near Orlando is now saying if current construction trends hold, it will effectively be built out in another 5-7 years. And there's increasing pressure for high density redevelopment in core cities already in order to keep up with population growth.

Walton County, it's not going to be too long before you have to go up to I-10 before you get large parcel developable land because there are so many huge tracts of restricted/preserved land south of that. I've got a co-worker who's got 10-15 acres in DeFuniak and he's starting to get unsolicited offers for it from people who are thinking subdivision in a couple of years.

 

[lenzoe]

Those are big numbers. And the same study projects a speeding of the demographic shift in the percentage of Floridians above age 64. In 2000 it was at 17%. In 2030 they estimate it will be at 27%.

Where are all the retirement and assisted-living communities in NW Florida?

 

[Smiling JOe]

Those are big numbers. And the same study projects a speeding of the demographic shift in the percentage of Floridians above age 64. In 2000 it was at 17%. In 2030 they estimate it will be at 27%.

Where are all the retirement and assisted-living communities in NW Florida?

They are called golf courses, and they are coming to Freeport. The question is, "Can they afford it?"

 

[beachmouse]

They're also selling preconstruction for what we joking refer to as "The Rich Geezer's Home". Full service luxury retirement living on the corner of SR 20 and White Point Road in Bluewater Bay from $400K for a one bedroom. (and you're almost six miles from the Gulf from there) They can afford it. There's a huge difference between what my parents have in their retirement years and what my grandparents have/had, and my parents were schoolteachers. Good pension, but not extrordianry.

NW Florida has been younger than the rest of the state for a while.

Percentage of residents over 65: (2000 census data set)

Charlotte County- 34.7%
Sarasota- 31.5%
Walton 15.8%
Okaloosa 12.1%

 

[SoWalSally]

The Sunshine State is the place to be, with 14 of the 100 fastest-growing counties in the U.S. and leading all states, according to the Census Bureau?s latest data. Flagler County ranked as the nation?s fastest-growing county between July 1, 2003 and July 1, 2004, experiencing a 10.1 percent population increase.
St. Johns County wasn?t far behind, coming in at the No. 9 spot with a population increase of 6.7 percent. Here?s how the remaining counties stack up: Osceola County, No. 11, 6.6 percent population increase; St. Lucie County, No. 18, 6 percent; Lake County, No. 22, 5.6 percent; Union County, No. 32, 5.2 percent; Pasco County, No. 38, 5 percent; Hernando County, No. 48, 4.8 percent.
Also, Clay County, No. 49, 4.7 percent population increase; Santa Rosa County, No. 60, 4.5 percent; Walton County, No. 61, 4.5 percent; Lee County, No. 65, 4.4 percent; Wakulla County, No. 74, 4.2 percent; Okeechobee County, No. 93, 3.9 percent.
Los Angeles County, Calif., continued to be the most populous county in the nation, with 9.9 million residents on July 1, 2004. The largest numerical gainer over the 2003-2004 period was Maricopa County (Phoenix), Ariz., which added 112,000 residents. These two counties and Harris County (Houston), Texas, were the only counties that ranked in the top 10 in both categories ? total population and numerical increase.
Other highlights:

? Of the 100 fastestgrowing counties between 2003 and 2004, 60 were located in the South, 23 in the West and 17 in the Midwest. None were in the Northeast.

? Joining Florida in having at least 10 counties among the 100 fastest growing were Georgia and Texas (12 each) and Virginia (10).

? Twenty-one states did not have any counties among the 100 fastest growing.

? California and Texas each had three counties among the top-10 numerical gainers. Only one county on this list ? Will County, Ill., near Chicago ? was located outside the South or West.

? Of the 100 most populous counties in 2004, 32 were located in the South, 27 in the Northeast, 25 in the West and 16 in the Midwest.

? California (15) had the most counties among the 100 most populous, followed by New York (nine), Texas (eight) and Florida (seven).

? Twenty states did not have any counties among the 100 most populous.
Contents of this story was provided by the Florida Association of Realtors.