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Mike Jones

Beach Fanatic
Dec 24, 2008
355
204
The Okaloosa - Walton Housing Summit, hosted by the Okaloosa and Walton County Health Improvement Partnership Committees, was held on Monday, May 13, 2024, at the Niceville Community Center. Topics included Live Local Act updates from the legislative session, economic and health impacts of housing, and related strategies.

Walton County Health Department Director Holly Holt explained the need for the summit. “Housing is an essential component to the growth of our healthy community. A healthy community should be one where an individual or family should not have to choose between housing and health.”

Attendees included State Representative Shane Abbott, Walton District 2 Commissioner Danny Glidewell, Walton County Planning Director Mac Carpenter, Walton County Economic Development Alliance Director Uriah Matthews and numerous Okaloosa County officials.

Representative Shane Abbott said he was struck by the number of public and private agencies that participated in the summit. “Everybody who is involved in housing in some shape, form or fashion was in the room. So that was amazing. There was something said in the early session that I thought was really good, which was that your local governments can look to see where they would like growth and housing to be at - and incentivize those areas. If the county has an area they think ‘This would be a good place to have infrastructure, and we want to try to steer housing and growth here’, that’s where we’ll incentivize it.

“We’re in a unique situation with both counties,” said Rep. Abbott. “We’re back to just pure supply and demand. We are in two of the fastest-growing counties in the entire state, the entire country, and so the demand is extremely high and when demand is that high, you lose affordability. I know everybody wants to be able to have affordable housing close to work-places, but sometimes you just have to look at the growth picture and go ‘That’s not going to work. I can’t put affordable housing on 30-A where all the restaurants are.’
Rep. Abbott said affordable housing can be done, but it won’t be easy due to land values. “By the time you buy the piece of sand it’s on, ‘affordable’ went out the window. We may be able to do affordable housing, but we may have to sacrifice driving distance. Probably, if we moved over to Holmes County and Washington County, we could probably build housing significantly cheaper than we can in Walton County.”

Abbott explained that the average sale price for a home in Okaloosa County is $300,000. In Walton County, it’s over $500,000. “When you have a demand like that, you can’t make housing affordable,” he said. “Then throw in the inflation rate, it just makes it even harder. It’s back to supply and demand.”

Commissioner Danny Glidewell noted that lack of truly affordable housing is not only one of the biggest problems in Walton County, but also among the most complex. “There are no easy solutions. Everybody recognizes the problem. We have a huge influx of people because Florida is where everybody wants to live,” he said. “Meanwhile, interest rates have gone up to where mortgages are not affordable. That’s not just mortgages on single family residents, that’s mortgage rates on multi-family structures, as well. So, developers are struggling to get financing for their projects. All those factors put together, and the huge inflationary increases in building costs – hardly anybody that is on a working wage can come close to affording any house at those rates.”

Glidewell said, “One of the solutions that was presented involved having government make land available to developers at a lower or no cost. That could be challenging politically, but it might be the only way we can get large production of housing. The underlying problem is ageless and simple. It’s basic economics – supply and demand,” he said. “Right now, we’ve got no supply and high demand. That’s going to create cost increases and that’s just the laws of economics.”

Economic Development Alliance Director Uriah Matthews also noted that, “The escalating housing costs have not only placed a burden on our residents but have also significantly increased the demands on nonprofits and community services. Housing is an essential element of economic development. The current pricing trends not only reflect a high demand but also highlight the urgent need for further development to stabilize costs. A healthy housing market is crucial for the well-being of our residents and the overall economic vitality of our community,” he added.

“As a representative of WCHIP, I would like to thank all of the partners who participated in the successful Housing Summit,” said Walton Health Department Director Holly Holt. “Key speakers, panel discussions and breakout sessions were held to move the discussion forward. WCHIP and OCHIP have workgroups taking steps to address housing in our community.”
 

UpNorth

Beach Lover
Apr 18, 2024
83
65
North
Well for starters, they’ll need to encourage and build more of it, which will send folks like James Bentwood into a frenzy.

On a higher level than Stone Age Living, unless you are going to ban people from coming here, both via tourism and migration, the only answer is more critical infrastructure, more houses, etc. Sadly, it is inevitable that we will need to go from 95% vacant land to maybe 88-91% vacant land. I’ll pour one out for my homies.
 

PJJ

Beach Lover
Oct 27, 2007
121
37
Glidewell said, “One of the solutions that was presented involved having government make land available to developers at a lower or no cost. That could be challenging politically, but it might be the only way we can get large production of housing. The underlying problem is ageless and simple. It’s basic economics – supply and demand,” he said. “Right now, we’ve got no supply and high demand. That’s going to create cost increases and that’s just the laws of economics.”

Complete and total nonsense. The apartments at Riverwalk are 60% vacant. Hammock Bay, delivered 4 years ago - 50% vacant. That's before 300 units deliver at Owl's Head.

South of the bay the apartments by Dune Lakes are 9% vacant and they've been dropping rents because the apartments don't produce enough income to service the debt. Lofts at Seacrest with deeded beach access - 17% vacant. Origins - 13% vacant. The Southern on JD Miller - 16% vacant.

Market vacancy for multifamily aka apartments is 16%. Lenders and developers underwrite to 5-10% vacancy. Rental rates are dropping because there is too much supply. Asking market rents are $1.91 per foot which is lower than 4 years ago. Also there are a ton of units to be delivered - just to name 2 - the project by Helen McCall and the project by the high school will add 516 units to a tiny market with already high vacancy.

Developers aren't delivering units because the demand is objectively not there. Developers and their lenders will incur massive losses if they attempt to build in this market right now. Glidewell couldn't be more wrong.
 

Matt J

SWGB
May 9, 2007
24,894
9,659
Glidewell said, “One of the solutions that was presented involved having government make land available to developers at a lower or no cost. That could be challenging politically, but it might be the only way we can get large production of housing. The underlying problem is ageless and simple. It’s basic economics – supply and demand,” he said. “Right now, we’ve got no supply and high demand. That’s going to create cost increases and that’s just the laws of economics.”

Complete and total nonsense. The apartments at Riverwalk are 60% vacant. Hammock Bay, delivered 4 years ago - 50% vacant. That's before 300 units deliver at Owl's Head.

South of the bay the apartments by Dune Lakes are 9% vacant and they've been dropping rents because the apartments don't produce enough income to service the debt. Lofts at Seacrest with deeded beach access - 17% vacant. Origins - 13% vacant. The Southern on JD Miller - 16% vacant.

Market vacancy for multifamily aka apartments is 16%. Lenders and developers underwrite to 5-10% vacancy. Rental rates are dropping because there is too much supply. Asking market rents are $1.91 per foot which is lower than 4 years ago. Also there are a ton of units to be delivered - just to name 2 - the project by Helen McCall and the project by the high school will add 516 units to a tiny market with already high vacancy.

Developers aren't delivering units because the demand is objectively not there. Developers and their lenders will incur massive losses if they attempt to build in this market right now. Glidewell couldn't be more wrong.

Except that you're comparing apartment complexes to affordable housing which is what Glidewell was discussing.

The developers are reluctantly building the apartments in Miramar Beach, land work started this week. I don't believe they'll be rushing the project.
 

UofL

Beach Fanatic
Jan 21, 2005
705
460
Louisville KY
We live in a walkable community in Louisville. One or both of our hispanic restaurants have rented space for their workers to live (house). One is now building a new restaurant (3 stories) and in the back, will house the workers there. Ellen
 

UpNorth

Beach Lover
Apr 18, 2024
83
65
North
How many of those places are still clinging to asking for 2021 type rent? When half the country was shut down, remote work and stimulus checks ruled the day, everyone could afford to be in nice places. Now that stuff is gone and we are left with the good ole shitty NW Florida job market of old.
 

PJJ

Beach Lover
Oct 27, 2007
121
37
Except that you're comparing apartment complexes to affordable housing which is what Glidewell was discussing.

The developers are reluctantly building the apartments in Miramar Beach, land work started this week. I don't believe they'll be rushing the project.
Fair. There's Affordable (subsidized) and affordable. I was reading him as the latter. For now the Affordable ship has sailed and the market will take care of itself without the need for new, subsidized housing. I'm guessing that Owl's Head will deliver and rents north of the bay will stabilize around $1 per foot. Riverwalk is 60% vacant asking $1.49/ft. I would bet all 3 larger multi projects trade hands in a distress situation at some point in the next few years. Maybe Riverwalk is ok bc of ownership and debt. HB traded in Oct 21 at nearly $300k/unit so that one's gonna be tough. I don't see a path for survival for Owl's Head.

As for south of the bay, there are just massive deliveries coming with already high vacancies. Who knows where it settles but the next 24 months will probably be pretty ugly for multifamily ownership.

All in all it's completely opposite of what Gladwell said that there is no supply.
 

Matt J

SWGB
May 9, 2007
24,894
9,659
I'm pretty sure the glut of apartments we've seen go up are eyeing the long term, possibly, when they can decide to go condo and sell of individual units.

I think Glidewell was referring to the period during COVID when we literally had no inventory of any kind. It was very much like 05/06, the difference being actual skin in the game which has delayed a crash/dip.

To be honest, this is why government usually has to build or subsidize housing, no one's doing it out of the goodness of their hearts. I think the best thing the county could do now is identify a large parcel they own or could buy reasonably and work with Habitat for Humanity which has strict guidelines for who receives the finished product.
 

Poppaj

SoWal Insider
Oct 9, 2015
8,337
20,138
I'm pretty sure the glut of apartments we've seen go up are eyeing the long term, possibly, when they can decide to go condo and sell of individual units.

I think Glidewell was referring to the period during COVID when we literally had no inventory of any kind. It was very much like 05/06, the difference being actual skin in the game which has delayed a crash/dip.

To be honest, this is why government usually has to build or subsidize housing, no one's doing it out of the goodness of their hearts. I think the best thing the county could do now is identify a large parcel they own or could buy reasonably and work with Habitat for Humanity which has strict guidelines for who receives the finished product.
Whoa slow down now. Are you actually suggesting we mix the proletariats with the bourgeoisie in Sowal?
 

Jim Tucker

Beach Fanatic
Jul 12, 2005
1,205
499
Glidewell said, “One of the solutions that was presented involved having government make land available to developers at a lower or no cost. That could be challenging politically, but it might be the only way we can get large production of housing. The underlying problem is ageless and simple. It’s basic economics – supply and demand,” he said. “Right now, we’ve got no supply and high demand. That’s going to create cost increases and that’s just the laws of economics.”

Complete and total nonsense. The apartments at Riverwalk are 60% vacant. Hammock Bay, delivered 4 years ago - 50% vacant. That's before 300 units deliver at Owl's Head.

South of the bay the apartments by Dune Lakes are 9% vacant and they've been dropping rents because the apartments don't produce enough income to service the debt. Lofts at Seacrest with deeded beach access - 17% vacant. Origins - 13% vacant. The Southern on JD Miller - 16% vacant.

Market vacancy for multifamily aka apartments is 16%. Lenders and developers underwrite to 5-10% vacancy. Rental rates are dropping because there is too much supply. Asking market rents are $1.91 per foot which is lower than 4 years ago. Also there are a ton of units to be delivered - just to name 2 - the project by Helen McCall and the project by the high school will add 516 units to a tiny market with already high vacancy.

Developers aren't delivering units because the demand is objectively not there. Developers and their lenders will incur massive losses if they attempt to build in this market right now. Glidewell couldn't be more wrong.
Please keep posting - it is great to have someone in the know, with facts and figures!

I've posted a lot of new apartment projects in the last couple of years - so many I can't remember them all.

Here are some:










A thread on affordable Housing in Walton County:

 
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