We've Peaked On Foreclosures ! - NOT !!!

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the PPI which is a good source of commodity price trends. Link is to page that allows you to select lumber, or whatever and then you can select a table and graph of lumber prices.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?wp

Another informative post, Thanks

It's important to note that from where I sit South Walton County has an abherrant micro-economy. A good example can be shown by builders having materials delivered, even common lumber, from companies outside the geographic area. We buy Cypress through Mobile, AL and I've seen Regal Stephens taking lumber deliveries from Alabama as well.

 

[30ashopper]

C'mon guy,,,,You know Chambers Street Builders, Inc. went into Watersound West Beach, built a model and earned a good return post haste in 2007.

I was refering to long term owners, not investors who can build a house at cost. You are a special case.

 

[30ashopper]

We built in Watersound West Beach so I think we're qualified to say that a person could buy a lot in the Cottage District from JOE. Maybe Lot 100 or 104 for + or - $290,000 with gulf and lake views. You may get approved plans for $5,000. You may get a Watersound Beach Club Membership for $5,000. You may get some Golf Priveleges for Origins, Camp Creek and Wild Heron. You may get a certificate to be used to pay your HOA dues for 2 years. You could build a beautiful pre-approved Dungan Nequette home with 4 beds, 2400 sq. ft. for $375,000. The whole process from Lot purchase to move in could take less than 4 months. Most appraisers would more than likely say the home is worth $835,000 on either of those lots.

A person could buy a lot in the Cottage District of Watersound West Beach, say 31 or 32, 43 or 44, 53 or 54, 65 or 66 for about $165,000. They may get all the same perks as above. Maybe they'd build the pre-approved Cooper Robertson plans with 4 beds, 4 baths and 2,400 square feet. That home would cost about the same and takes 4 months start to finish.

I think it's a fascinating transaction in this most strange point in the cycle.

I'm not sure I know what the Cottage District is. Watersound West Beach is that community west of Watersound Beach that lacks direct beach access correct? Where is the Cottage District? Is that the upper, easterly area of Watersound Beach?

 

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I'm not sure I know what the Cottage District is. Watersound West Beach is that community west of Watersound Beach that lacks direct beach access correct? Where is the Cottage District? Is that the upper, easterly area of Watersound Beach?

Watersound West Beach does have direct beach access. The Cottage district stretches the length of the community starting at the main entrance, continuing along the Northerly border and then bifurcates to the Pool Cottage District. Lot 100 and Lot 104 are Pool Cottage District lots that JOE has aggressively priced. They are Gulf and Lake View Lots. JOE wants your business and in this case I think they deserve it. I'll attach a picture of the pool that sits at the beginning of the beach access. I'll attach a PDF of the West Beach Community too.

This JOE community is a sleeper. I don't know any developed communities that can compete on price.

 

[Matt J]

Watersound West Beach does have direct beach access. The Cottage district stretches the length of the community starting at the main entrance, continuing along the Northerly border and then bifurcates to the Pool Cottage District. Lot 100 and Lot 104 are Pool Cottage District lots that JOE has aggressively priced. They are Gulf and Lake View Lots. JOE wants your business and in this case I think they deserve it. I'll attach a picture of the pool that sits at the beginning of the beach access. I'll attach a PDF of the West Beach Community too.

This JOE community is a sleeper. I don't know any developed communities that can compete on price.

AA, I know you've got a bucket truck have you been up in it in WSWB to see if Gulf views are actually possible? It just seems like a stretch considering the distance to the Gulf even from the closest lot.

 

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AA, I know you've got a bucket truck have you been up in it in WSWB to see if Gulf views are actually possible? It just seems like a stretch considering the distance to the Gulf even from the closest lot.

The house I built on the pool was a two story Cooper Robertson Plan. It had lake and gulf views.

 

[AAbsolute]

This is the pre-approved house plan that JOE gave us.

This is the pre-approved house plan that JOE gave us. They have some real good plans in their inventory. Lot 100 has less of a pool view, but it has a great gulf view. It has the best gulf views in Watersound West Beach and is for sale for under $300,000. Another builder could probably do real well to build a model home there for next years Parade.

 

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Walton County, Lis Pendens Statistics through December 1, 2008.

We haven't turned the corner yet as October had the highest on record. It's been a long period of steady gains in filings with a big recent spike that may be the sign of the peak.

05-Jan 20 05-Feb 48 05-Mar 19 05-Apr 23 05-May 7 05-Jun 19 05-Jul 12 05-Aug 21 05-Sep 17 05-Oct 25 05-Nov 24 05-Dec 29
06-Jan 20 06-Feb 25 06-Mar 24 06-Apr 20 06-May 19 06-Jun 22 06-Jul 30 06-Aug 37 06-Sep 38 06-Oct 37 06-Nov 40 06-Dec 41
07-Jan 47 07-Feb 61 07-Mar 57 07-Apr 63 07-May 44 07-Jun 48 07-Jul 65 07-Aug 67 07-Sep 83 07-Oct 116 07-Nov 98 07-Dec 105
08-Jan 147 08-Feb 136 08-Mar 189 08-Apr 142 08-May 176 08-Jun 158 08-Jul 177 08-Aug 156 08-Sep 183 08-Oct 189 08-Nov138

 

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AA, I know you've got a bucket truck have you been up in it in WSWB to see if Gulf views are actually possible? It just seems like a stretch considering the distance to the Gulf even from the closest lot.

I found this link for Watersound West Beach. You can see the lake and gulf through the treeline from the upstairs bedrooms in some of the pictures.

Shutterfly | Shared Picture Detail

 

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5, 11, 15, 23, 50.......

Those are the number of Walton County foreclosure filings for December 16th through the 23rd for 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 respectively.