Hurricane Isaac

Great info on SoWal! Will stay tuned in. I hope I don't have to test out this bunker of a house and the backup solar but if it comes to that I feel it won't let me down! Good luck everyone! Cross fingers it has the least intensity possible! And hi to all - long time no talk!!

Gidget

huge turn to west overnight. Its all the way to miss-ala border. If it stays there or shifts even more west in next 24hrs we could get by with only heavy rain

huge turn to west overnight. Its all the way to miss-ala border. If it stays there or shifts even more west in next 24hrs we could get by with only heavy rain

Looking better. When you are in the bullseye more than a few days out no need to panic, but it is unnerving to say the least. Paths almost always shift when landfall is that far away. Notice I said almost always. Knock on wood.

Yet there is still plenty of time for the landfall prediction to move either east or west. And of course sometimes they turn at the last hours. Our worst case is if the eye passes slightly to our west and hits Destin or FoWal like Opal did.

Even if Isaac makes landfall well to our west I fear beach erosion. Our dunes are so vulnerable! The dunes are looking good compared to 2006, but even small storms that have come ashore well to our west have pushed waves right to the toe of the dunes.

Great info on SoWal! Will stay tuned in. I hope I don't have to test out this bunker of a house and the backup solar but if it comes to that I feel it won't let me down! Good luck everyone! Cross fingers it has the least intensity possible! And hi to all - long time no talk!!

Gidget

:wave: Hi Gidget! Missed you.

I am on Magnolia in New Grayton. My elevation is not far off from the Red Bar, but I could see a little flooding if it floods the Red Bar. House is about 6 feet above ground elevation, but not the auto!

Thanks for the advice.

Your elevation is not the only issue. What happened during Opal is that the end of Garfield Street, Cottage Street, and Banfill Street where they meet the beach basically became funnels for the surge and surf so the houses on the north side of Hotz Avenue across from the Red Bar got inundated and a few pushed off their foundations.

Please don't take my word as gospel but I think Magnolia Street has always fared well because you are behind high dunes that haven't been breached. I suppose during a serious cat 4 or 5 surge could make its way to
'New Grayton" streets on the west side at the path to the gulf beside the Provow's home.

Remember that Grayton Beach and its old homes have been through massive storms in the past.

Looking better. When you are in the bullseye more than a few days out no need to panic, but it is unnerving to say the least. Paths almost always shift when landfall is that far away. Notice I said almost always. Knock on wood.

Yet there is still plenty of time for the landfall prediction to move either east or west. And of course sometimes they turn at the last hours. Our worst case is if the eye passes slightly to our west and hits Destin or FoWal like Opal did.

Even if Isaac makes landfall well to our west I fear beach erosion. Our dunes are so vulnerable! The dunes are looking good compared to 2006, but even small storms that have come ashore well to our west have pushed waves right to the toe of the dunes.

Yes, the major erosion done by Dennis was in large measure due to the angle it came in on. Issac may do a similar track. Is FoWal a word? (I guess it is now).:blink:

fowal. heh.

Remember that since we're under a state of emergency, the price-gouging laws have kicked in.

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/articles/storm-51952-home-water.html

Meanwhile, Attorney General Pam Bondi activated the state’s price-gouging hotline. People can call 1-866-9-NO-SCAM to report hikes in prices of gas, hotels, water, ice, food, and other essential items.

Be cautious on reading too much into the model shift west. Euro had been trending far west and is now trending more to the east. GFS just the opposite. Even in the NHC discussions they aren't showing great confidence with the modeling. A much better picture will materialize by Monday morning once he passes the Keys. Regardless expect a lot of rain and significant beach erosion. Probably will lose the remaining turtle nests....bummer

We are here! Just want to let you know that we really appreciate the "local" perspective and updates. Hate having to endure the drama on the weather channel. In the past we've always kept track of storms from our home in Southern Illinois...it's quite a bit different being here and needing updated and accurate information. Because we are staying in Leeward II condominium, beach level...before we left home I made a "plan B" reservation in Enterprise, Alabama for Tuesday and Wednesday night. I have the option to cancel by Monday, late afternoon. Still holding out hope that we won't have to leave. We don't fly out of Panama City until Labor DAy! Keep posting....and thanks again!!! :wub:

Post storm, Blue Mountain Beach will look like the nightmare the "I own the beach" crowd have made it.

what does this mean?

Hi All,

I had to re-register today but have been around sowal.com for quite sometime, though haven't posted in forever. My husband and I got married in Seaside in 2005 and our latest trip to the area (Seacrest beach) was in May.

Anyway, I live in Virginia and we have a local, private meteorologist here who has gained quite a following as of a couple of years ago as he predicted our snowfall far earlier and far more accurately than ANY other meteorologist (TV or internet). (Predicting snow in central VA is extremely tricky) He, Dave Tolleris, makes a living doing long range forecasts for agriculture.

That said, he has been predicting Isaac make a landfall around Mobile, AL for several days now. If you are interested I will add his information below. He tends to update his facebook account much more frequently and he is / can be very brash and direct. While he isn't always right, he is usually better than most.

I sincerely wish everyone there the best. These storms break my heart. Our 2005 wedding was actually supposed to be a 2004 wedding but hurricane Ivan had other plans.

Be safe!
Sue

http://www.facebook.com/WxRisk
http://www.wxrisk.com/

We are here! Just want to let you know that we really appreciate the "local" perspective and updates. Hate having to endure the drama on the weather channel. In the past we've always kept track of storms from our home in Southern Illinois...it's quite a bit different being here and needing updated and accurate information. Because we are staying in Leeward II condominium, beach level...before we left home I made a "plan B" reservation in Enterprise, Alabama for Tuesday and Wednesday night. I have the option to cancel by Monday, late afternoon. Still holding out hope that we won't have to leave. We don't fly out of Panama City until Labor DAy! Keep posting....and thanks again!!! :wub:

You're welcome! :wave:

Let's remind everyone about one of the top commandments for weathering (pun intended) a tropical event:
Do not watch the weather channel more than once an hour (preferably less) and only one segment at a time. Otherwise Jim Cantore will eat your brain and you will become convinced you're gonna die.

Even if you are in Albuquerque - no lie!

what does this mean?

I think Bob's comment means the beach will have lots of debris (chairs, tents), etc on it.

We are here! Just want to let you know that we really appreciate the "local" perspective and updates. Hate having to endure the drama on the weather channel. In the past we've always kept track of storms from our home in Southern Illinois...it's quite a bit different being here and needing updated and accurate information. Because we are staying in Leeward II condominium, beach level...before we left home I made a "plan B" reservation in Enterprise, Alabama for Tuesday and Wednesday night. I have the option to cancel by Monday, late afternoon. Still holding out hope that we won't have to leave. We don't fly out of Panama City until Labor DAy! Keep posting....and thanks again!!! :wub:

Beachma,
We'll be keeping our fingers crossed for you! We are coming to Leeward on the 8th. And this trip is our "research/home searching" trip as well as vacation trip, as my husband and I are planning to ditch the California rat race and move to SoWal next year. Guess we may end up getting some first-hand insight into what the area faces after a heavy storm (praying it's just that - a heavy storm - and that the models continue to take the projected landfall further west).

In any event, hope everyone in our "future hometown" stays safe and sound - we're thinking good thoughts for all of you and looking forward to meeting you soon!

Tropical Storm Isaac #3 update

For Immediate Release
August 26, 2012

The Walton County Emergency Operations Center has now moved into Level 2 activation status. As of the morning meeting, the following information was provided:

-Our area is currently under a Hurricane Watch.
-According to the track of the storm at this time, it is taking a western track.
-If the track stays on course, we will deal with 45-60 mph hour winds, with gusts of 75 mph in land. Coastal areas will have winds of approximately 80 mph.
-Rainfall and storm surge will be of much significance. Storm surge is expected to be between 2-4 ft. (with tide will be between 3-5 ft.). Rainfall totals could range between 10-12 inches. Coastal and river flooding can be expected.
-Tornadoes will be possible.
-Again, if the track stays on course, we can expect Tropical Storm force winds to arrive between 5-7 p.m. on Monday. Storm surge is expected to arrive Monday afternoon and last into Tuesday.
More information will be forthcoming, as another meeting is scheduled to take place at 10:15 a.m.

Thanks for all the informative updates! It is great to have locals here posting for all of us following the hurricane. This is our first one on the coast. We have lived in the Seagrove area for the past year and love it!!!

Less confidence than usual in the track. From Masters new post this morning:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2206



The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly, and we can no longer be confident we know where Isaac will make landfall on the Gulf Coast. One camp of models, the UKMET and ECMWF, predict that a trough of low pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. will be strong enough to turn Isaac north to a landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The other set of models, the GFDL, GFS, and HWRF, predict the trough will bypass Isaac, and a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to a landfall over Louisiana. The official NHC forecast averages out these two extremes, calling for a landfall midway between the two solutions.

And:


The intensify forecasts from the various models are very divergent. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model keeps Isaac as a strong tropical storm until landfall in Louisiana. Isaac will undergo rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane as it hits New Orleans, says the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the HWRF model. The ECMWF model has Isaac as a strong Category 2 storm with a central pressure near 950 mb as it hits near the Alabama/Florida border.