Hurricane Isaac

Less confidence than usual in the track. From Masters new post this morning:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2206



The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs have diverged significantly, and we can no longer be confident we know where Isaac will make landfall on the Gulf Coast. One camp of models, the UKMET and ECMWF, predict that a trough of low pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. will be strong enough to turn Isaac north to a landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The other set of models, the GFDL, GFS, and HWRF, predict the trough will bypass Isaac, and a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to a landfall over Louisiana. The official NHC forecast averages out these two extremes, calling for a landfall midway between the two solutions.

And:


The intensify forecasts from the various models are very divergent. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model keeps Isaac as a strong tropical storm until landfall in Louisiana. Isaac will undergo rapid intensification into a Category 3 hurricane as it hits New Orleans, says the latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the HWRF model. The ECMWF model has Isaac as a strong Category 2 storm with a central pressure near 950 mb as it hits near the Alabama/Florida border.

I agree with this idea. We are not really gonna know until tomorrow afternoon.

What is the definition of a low lying area??

For Beach Runner:
Models are not in agreement. Here is the Euro - it's an animation, wait for it to load. This is one of the better performing models. It still has us as the bull's eye. The uncertainty has to do with a turn up towards us.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...a!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101800!!!step/

Um, what exactly does a mandatory evacuation mean?

We've got guests in Seagrove, at Hidden Beach Villas, Cassine Station, and gulf front at Ramsgate. It's a beautiful day. All were planning on leaving Monday am.

I appreciate the Sherriff being proactive, but this seems a little premature on very short notice, especially with winds and waves not really expected to be hitting the area until Monday afternoon. Not to mention the forecast track seems to keep shifting further west today.

If our guests don't start out until tomorrow before noon, are they really at risk of getting stuck at the 331 bridge? What if they went east on 98 through Panama City instead, or West and across the mid-bay bridge. What are the closing policies on those bridges?

Forgot to say, regarding the link I posted - you can go to the site and see it, but there is some rule that prevents that model track from being reproduced elsewhere, so you won't find it on any of the spaghetti plots.

And if guests don't leave until the morning, is SO going to arrest them. Or us?

The 2pm NHC intermediate advisory is out. Winds are down to 60mph, pressure down a little to 994mb, and motion is WNW at 18mph. No tracks are updated at the 2pm advisory. The next NHC cone adjustment will be at 5pm. Storm still expected to increase intensity and model tracks are very wide for the upper Gulf coast.
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

Um, what exactly does a mandatory evacuation mean?

We've got guests in Seagrove, at Hidden Beach Villas, Cassine Station, and gulf front at Ramsgate. It's a beautiful day. All were planning on leaving Monday am.

I appreciate the Sherriff being proactive, but this seems a little premature on very short notice, especially with winds and waves not really expected to be hitting the area until Monday afternoon. Not to mention the forecast track seems to keep shifting further west today.

If our guests don't start out until tomorrow before noon, are they really at risk of getting stuck at the 331 bridge? What if they went east on 98 through Panama City instead, or West and across the mid-bay bridge. What are the closing policies on those bridges?

Note that it is voluntary at this time. There is no clear cut definition of what is a low lying area but gulf front often is. And if there is surge expected then you don't want to be near that.

Since we have relatively few visitors compared to summer season, hopefully traffic will not be too bad. But problems can arise, especially when timing is bad. For instance, if a storm intensifies and turns late in the day or during the night, folks will wake up and decide to leave, causing problems. Better to be safe than sorry.

Bridges close when sustained winds reach 40mph. We are on an island.

We were able to add tomorrow to our reservations in Alabama...the best we can do is leave in the morning. We've heard nothing from the rental company we've rented from about anything, all my information has come from SOWAL. We're spending this beautiful day on the beach!!!

Thanks Kurt. I agree they don't want to be gulf front. And better safe than sorry, sure.

I see it's currently a voluntary evacuation, but it becomes mandatory in about 90 minutes, so I'm still wondering what that means so i can tell my guests. Do they stop southbound traffic across the bridge? Do they start knocking on gulf front doors or something?

Latest EURO model still showing landfall at ~ Gulf Shores, AL.. This model is the Eastern-most of the major models right now. Most others show landfall from ~ Gulfport West to even Lake Charles.. Wish the EURO would get with the program, haha..:popcorn:

Thanks Kurt. I agree they don't want to be gulf front. And better safe than sorry, sure.

I see it's currently a voluntary evacuation, but it becomes mandatory in about 90 minutes, so I'm still wondering what that means so i can tell my guests. Do they stop southbound traffic across the bridge? Do they start knocking on gulf front doors or something?

Yes - mandatory for low lying areas at 3PM today. Your guests can call Walton County Sheriff's info line at:
850-892-8394 or 850-892-8392.

From past experiences there will be no knocking on doors or arrests.

According to Walton County, tropical storm force winds are expected as early as 5PM Monday at which point the Choctawhatchee Bay bridge would be closed.