NPR story on house prices

[Uncle Timmy]

I heard this story on NPR.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6383099

Check out the graph. (Moody'sEconomy.com)

Predictions for our area:

Fort Walton Beach:

Peak to Trough %Decline -7.9%

Peak - 2nd quarter of '05

Trough - 3rd quarter of '06

 

[Ohio Girl]

Have prices really dropped in So Walton? I've been watching pretty closely and it looks to me like sellers are still in a state of denial.

 

[Here4Good]

Have prices really dropped in So Walton? I've been watching pretty closely and it looks to me like sellers are still in a state of denial.

Are you looking at the listing prices? You might want to look at the actual sale prices.

 

[fisher]

Have prices really dropped in So Walton? I've been watching pretty closely and it looks to me like sellers are still in a state of denial.

Year-to-date through July 2006 versus year-to-date through July 2005, the average price on homes in Walton County had dropped 9% (from $535k to $486k), on condos the drop was 23% (from $597k to $455k) and on lots the drop was 28% (from $226k to 163k). These figures are for all of Walton County from the real trend report which can be found on a thread from Smiling Joe in August. The drop is just as dramatic along 30A.

 

[Mango]

Interesting Timmy. Hopefully this quarter is the trough. ;-)

 

[SHELLY]

Does anyone here really believe we've hit the bottom of the housing trough in SoWal already? If so, would you care to comment on what you believe will happen next? And if it includes a "bounce back," what is the timeframe?....and given the current state of the economy, how do you see this as being economically feasible. <Use a No. 2 pencil please.>

Anyone?.... Anyone?.....Bueller?

 

[beachmouse]

There's a fairly big structural difference between the SoWal and Ft. Walton Beach real estate markets. (year round residents in FWB, many more seasonal/vacation homes in SoWal) Not much buyer overlap between the two groups save for a handful of neighborhoods in Destin and on Okaloosa Isalnd.

FWB was always going to get something of a bounce back up as long as it looked like Eglin AFB's employment outlooked positive, which it still does even if the base realignment plan isn't turning out to be quite as much of a net gain as first thought. Plus, southern and central Okaloosa actually has less developable land left than southern and central Walton does.

 

[Mango]

Does anyone here really believe we've hit the bottom of the housing trough in SoWal already? If so, would you care to comment on what you believe will happen next? And if it includes a "bounce back," what is the timeframe?....and given the current state of the economy, how do you see this as being economically feasible. <Use a No. 2 pencil please.>

Anyone?.... Anyone?.....Bueller?

Dean Rooney couldn't keep up with Bueller and wound up shoeless and riding a bus sitting next to a girl with some nasty gummie bears. ;-)

But to answer your question, predictions are just that and I really don't pay much heed to crystal balls which frankly most economists might as well be using. Have we hit a trough in SoWal? We may just well be. 2 foreclosures in my development alone. How long? Gut instinct tells me 2-3 years (think airport and money folks having better access to the area)
But there are too many factors besides jobs and airports for predictions especially with the Republicans fighting to keep their heads up in Congress.
One could sit here all night using bullcrap economists figures of employment growth, real estate trends, blah, blah.
But it's always funn to see what companies like Moody's has to say.;-)

 

[spinDrAtl]

Dean Rooney couldn't keep up with Bueller and wound up shoeless and riding a bus sitting next to a girl with some nasty gummie bears. ;-)

But to answer your question, predictions are just that and I really don't pay much heed to crystal balls which frankly most economists might as well be using. Have we hit a trough in SoWal? We may just well be. 2 foreclosures in my development alone. How long? Gut instinct tells me 2-3 years (think airport and money folks having better access to the area)
But there are too many factors besides jobs and airports for predictions especially with the Republicans fighting to keep their heads up in Congress.
One could sit here all night using bullcrap economists figures of employment growth, real estate trends, blah, blah.
But it's always funn to see what companies like Moody's has to say.;-)

That's Principal Rooney, if you don't mind.

The turn will be all psychological, IMO. When people who have the ability to buy 'feel' that its safe to do so, some will start making a move. Then when others see prices starting to rebound, those who have been sitting on the sidelines will make their move in order not to be left behind on pricing. It won't be the mad rush of the speculators, but once the 'early adopters' (for lack a better term) get off the fence, others will slowly follow.

 

[BrettMan]

The bottom line is that it's all about supply and demand. Prices may not fall much more, but they sure aren't going up until the supply starts to get tight. According to the latest inventory and sale numbers, that is several years away at the current inventory/run rates. Of course, several years can turn into a year or two since the number of sales is so low and a small absolute increase (but large percent increase) would bring that inventory/run rate number back down in a hurry.

Prognosticator BrettMan says that early 2009 will be the time to buy (and hold).

Disclaimer - I am laser focused on 30A and primarily focused on residential land (which is where my interests are). I haven't even looked at data outside of 30A, so I can't make any predictions about that - but the inventory vs run rate argument is one that I'll stick by. Also - as data changes so will my prediction - that's not being fickle, that's being real.