NPR story on house prices

[goofer]

I may be nitpicking but I want to inject one thought. I think the most important ingredient in the economic pie is CONFIDENCE. I say nitpicking because you may equate confidence with psychology of the mkt. It is a semantic difference. CONFIDENCE, imho, is paramount to every other ingredient INCLUDING supply and demand. It is, after all, CONFIDENCE that determines demand or lack of same.
Strong confidence = strong demand. Weak confidence = large supply. When confidence returns to the real estate market, demand will pick up and diminish the supply. The big question is WHAT will bolster confidence. The economy in my opinion is doing just fine. It is the PSYCHOLOGY of the mkt that is lacking. Is it caused by the talking heads, the print media or the universal thought that we are in a bubble ? The anemic savings rate, the gimicky mortgage loans, the worries about social security and medicare, the foreign policy issues....are these the causes of low confidence ? But I do know that when confidence returns so will demand. IT works that way in EVERY market.

 

[SHELLY]

I may be nitpicking but I want to inject one thought. I think the most important ingredient in the economic pie is CONFIDENCE.

IMO, I think the most important ingredient in the economic pie is FUNDAMENTALS.

Confidence, in the absence of fundamentals, is speculation.

 

[Mango]

You're correct. You're the one that brought up "psychology" on THIS THREAD. I made a "discretionary spending is based on psychology" observation...also that the amount one receives from Social Security is not a significant factor in one's ability to afford property in South Walton. I was somewhat kidding because, yes, property values are relatively high and like you, I believe we all wonder how much social security we'll get down the road. Your comment about your $250,000 tax bill came out of left field (why can't you acknowledge that?).

I read your post in its entirety. If I chopped your post into "micro-pieces", well, perhaps it just helps me keep my thought pattern in line. If you take offense to my chopping, then by all means, this will be the last response to you that is "chopped" up. I won't even use anymore winkies since you don't appreciate them coming from me.

BTW my first reply to your post was chopped into 3 pieces to be exact:
1. Psychology (which you brought up)
2. Debt service vs. investment (which you brought up)
3. "Big bucks" into Social Security (which you brought up)

I thought each of these were distinct and deserved their own space. But what was I thinking?

You never did address your $250,000 tax bill comment and what that has to do with Social Security payments...just some cutesie comment about buying a TMX Elmo. The subject of this thread is RE peaks and troughs. Remember?;-)

Oops should have used -->

NO, I was not the first to being up psychological issues. See post # 9.
Secondly, I mentioned Social Security in a different context- see post #12.
If you need to break down sentences line by line, and not read the entire text as a whole, can't help you there.

As for the $250K tax bill, what I meant to say was I have at least paid $250K into the Social Security system in my career of 23 years in the same business. Personally I have written 6 figure checks to the govt. for taxes. Anyone worth their salt in the mortgage business for the past 7 years should have at some point or they should have gotten out.
Not arrogance, just a reality. (I wish I still writing those big checks)
To answer your question regarding fluff purchases, no, I do not make non-discretionary large purchases. like cars, or fancy items. I own 2 used cars for 10+ years, and only bought one new car in my lifetime which I was able to pay cash for.
Any "fluff" purchases I make are small and well within my budget.

You got an answer a cutsie answer from me because I did not feel at 1:30 am that I needed to justify any of my posts to you especially in light of your previous response which sounded as though you thought I thought in small terms. I never said anyone purchasing in SoWal would be relying on SS to retire there, and I am willing to bet money that all the for sale signs on gulffront older properties up and down Blue Mountain Beach Road (and they are consecutive) are being sold because they can not afford seawalls, insurance, and the increased taxes. Based on the ages of the homes, I would bet some of these people are retired already. I don't think anyone would be able to retire anywhere in SoWal and use SS in their budgeting. They will be going to other States.

Point being made here by myself, that all the above arguments have some validity, but I do not think anyone can state for any surety where the markets are going to go no matter how many so called "gurus" or economists you put in a room together sharpening their pencils. Shelly IMO knows that too, but was just looking for an intelligent argument regarding peak and troughs.

 

[30gAy]

People please,

If we are going to get into a pissing contest, let?s at least throw in some colorful insults.

Let me play Dr. Phil, if he ever decided to moderate a smack-down:

BMBV why don?t you turn to Mango and attack her ?big bucks? comment by expressing that because she is so downtrodden that she has to buy her McDonald?s milkshakes on layaway, anything seems like big bucks.

Mango, why not point out to BMBV that nit picking an argument is about as productive as trying to arrange a bag of M&Ms alphabetically.

BMBV should respond by suggesting that Mango is so clueless that she could trip over a cordless phone.

And Mango, you end by telling BMBV that he sounds old enough to have had Moses as a high school classmate.



If we can?t play nice, at least we can play in a way which entertains others. Please continue??.

 

[TripleB]

Can someone lend me $3.25 for a Happy Meal?

 

[Mango]

People please,

If we are going to get into a pissing contest, let?s at least throw in some colorful insults.

I you 30gAy.
There would not have been a pissing contest if he did not break out his winkie. ;-)

Can someone lend me $3.25 for a Happy Meal?

Sorry, I am saving for a TMX Elmo. I lied. It wasn't for my nephew.

 

[30gAy]

I you 30gAy.
There would not have been a pissing contest if he did not break out his winkie. ;-)

Ah, and therein lies the root of the problem, you all need to join my world -when the winkies come out, it's time to par-tay!

 

[kathydwells]

Ah, and therein lies the root of the problem, you all need to join my world -when the winkies come out, it's time to par-tay!

:funn:

 

[Miss Kitty]

wee willie winkie

 

[BlueMtnBeachVagrant]

Mango,

I stand corrected. It was not you who brought up "psychology". It was spinDrAtl. My bad. Sorry. Won't happen again.

Regarding your comments about social security and income tax:

You said (and I quote complete with blinking icon),
"Vagrant: Tell me when you write a check to the government for $250,000 in one year for taxes if you dont consider that big bucks. I do. "

THEN you said (and I quote),
"As for the $250K tax bill, what I meant to say was I have at least paid $250K into the Social Security system in my career of 23 years in the same business."

I bet you really earn your 6 digit salary as an advisor to John Kerry?:roll:


BTW, I'm taking my wife's diamond ring back for a refund. Me to my bride as she hits me with a baseball bat... "But Mango said psychology doesn't have that much effect on why I bought it for you dear. It has no practical value since we don't use it to cut glass. Shelly said something about FUNDAMENTALS. Dear, why can't you see things their way?"

30gAy actually made me laugh at myself. Hopefully he had the same effect on you.

Truce?

;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-) ;-)