Stick Your Neck Out and Predict

[flyforfun]

So let me see if I understand...if the mid-terms go the Democrat's way, the Real estate market here is screwed? Ergo, if you have a vested interest in this market here you better go vote Republican next Tuesday.

Just out of curiosity, what happened to housing prices here between 1992 and 2000?

Well Rap, there was about 15 months were the market went flat, then begain to climb back up until Opal hit in 1995. Again, the market went flat for about 12 months, then began to climb. There was another small hurricane in 1998, that caused the market to go flat for about 8-12 months, and as usual the market began to grow. In my opinion, what really fueled the rapid increase prior to Katrina was low interest rates, reduction in capital gains tax to 15% and 1031's being discovered by more buyers/agents and the stock market collasp after 9/11. Personally, I still would rather have a piece of sand in my pocket, then own a piece of worthless stock any day.

 

[flyforfun]

I have friends????:roll:

Hey Bobby J, nice avitar! Never seen you look so good!

 

[Indigo Jill]

....we could be facing a repeat of what happened in 1991 that devastated the real estate market across the country. In fact, Sandestin even went bankrupt during that period!

And they were in the tank again in 2006 (recently!) when they (Intrawest - who owned Sandestin) sold it all to a company - forgot the name - for a staggering $2.1 billion dollars, $1 billion of which went to debt repayment!:shock:

 

[flyforfun]

And they were in the tank again in 2006 (recently!) when they (Intrawest - who owned Sandestin) sold it all to a company - forgot the name - for a staggering $2.1 billion dollars, $1 billion of which went to debt repayment!:shock:

Jill, that is news to me, do you have a reference or a web link? Sandestin must have a CEO from Healthsouth or Enron managing in charge of that deal.

 

[rapunzel]

Personally, I still would rather have a piece of sand in my pocket, then own a piece of worthless stock any day.

Well...I'll agree with you there. As long as it's not gulf front...Mother Nature has already taken one house away.

I just don't think one party or the other makes a whole lot of difference in the market. Everything ebbs and flows from administration to administration. After about eight years the excesses of either party begins to take it's toll. It seems to me the huge debt that is being run up right now with no sort of fiscal responsibility brings in its own set of issues for investment. I worked in a different industry, but always found that when one party was in control all protection went to employer groups and hospitals, and eventually the squeeze would be so tight on doctors and customers and the next party would come in, fix some problems and create others...then the pendulum would swing the other way.

I just don't trust a lot of the economic numbers coming out right now. And I think that as long as we pretend there is not a problem when everyone can clearly see there are problems, then nothing will get done. Capital gains are hurt as much by an extremely weak dollar as higher taxes, are they not?

 

[ecopal]

... However what people should be worrying about is this mid term election. Should the Republicans loose both the House and Senate, with huge deficit spending and a need to increase revenue via taxes, we could be facing a repeat of what happened in 1991 that devastated the real estate market across the country. In fact, Sandestin even went bankrupt during that period! I suspect modification of 1031's, a increase of capital gains tax from 15% to 30% and a reversal on other tax incentives that have made others to look more favorably to real estate as an investment. Then again, what do I know....I am friends with Bobby J

I wouldn?t worry about losing the low capital gains tax rate under the Democrats. Most Democrats voted for the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 which included lowering the capital gains tax rate.

In 1991 the first Bush was President - remember the one that broke his ?no new taxes? promise. So you can?t blame 1991 economic woes on the Democrats.

During President Clinton?s presidency we had budget surpluses. Bush and the Republican Congress have given us record braking deficits and a soaring federal debt.

The big tax breaks the Republicans gave to the wealthiest Americans has actually contributed to the higher national debt and increasing interest rates.

 

[Indigo Jill]

Jill, that is news to me, do you have a reference or a web link? Sandestin must have a CEO from Healthsouth or Enron managing in charge of that deal.

Flyforfun...I read it in the Sun I believe?? Let me see if I can find the info on that. Yes, I was astounded too.

 

[Indigo Jill]

flyforfun...here is a link ... looks like it was $2.8billion!!
http://www.mountainresortmag.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=43&Itemid=1

 

[SHELLY]

And they were in the tank again in 2006 (recently!) when they (Intrawest - who owned Sandestin) sold it all to a company - forgot the name - for a staggering $2.1 billion dollars, $1 billion of which went to debt repayment!:shock:

Were you a bondholder in Intrawest?

 

[BlueMtnBeachVagrant]

www.fishkind.com. go to the fund index to find the answears.

Oh heck. Everybody else is breaking the house rules about "minimal commentary"....

Babyblue, I saw these on the website (thanks for reference):

http://www.fishkind.com/radio/072506spot.pdf
"July 25, 2006

....Falling demand (of existing home sales) has caused prices to remain essentially unchanged over the last 6 months. These trends for Orange County are repeated all across central Florida and in Florida more generally. Over the next six months interest rates are likely to rise more and demand will continue to slow."​

Then just one month later he says:

http://www.fishkind.com/radio/090506spot.pdf
"September 5, 2006
....Here in Florida there were a number of positive economic reports. Most importantly it now appears that we have reached the bottom of the cycle for single-family housing. Over the last 90-days closing volumes for new and existing single-family homes have consolidated and are no longer falling."

So, in just one month, his forecast changed from 6 more months of demand slowdown to basically the sales volume now holding level.
:roll:
What did you or anyone else see here?