Housing stocks back on the radar screen

[goofer]

Last August I said to buy a package of housing stocks since I thought all the bad news was in the stock prices. In six weeks I made an easy 20% ( the stocks proceded to go up an additional 20%) Now I am saying to put these stocks on the radar screen. I AM NOT SAYING TO BUY NOW !!!!
I will, at some point, sound an all clear when I am ready to pull the trigger. But in the meantime it bears watching these stocks and how they react to news regarding sub prime, alt-a, and prime mortgage loans, further cancellations, foreclosures and land sales, interest rates and earnings estimate revisions. When the stocks do not go down any further even as bad news gushes out, then you will know it is time to put on 1//4 to 1/3 of your positions. AGAIN I REITERATE DO NOT BUY NOW !!! But keep your eyes open and your powder dry. TO BE CONTINUED.

 

[RiverOtter]

But you will give us the "high sign" ........ right

 

[SHELLY]

Goofer,

Housing stocks are getting very interesting to watch. With their earnings in the ditch, cancellations outnumbering sales, mortgage malfeasance and CEOs looting the coffers, there may still be more downside to come--thus making them very attractive to the shorts. However, with the private equity guys sniffing around, and Icahn's <rejected> bid for WCI, I think that the window of opportunity to pick up some fast money will quickly slam shut for those not already holding the goods (as PE offers will set off short covering that will drive the prices up). I think opportunities in housing stocks are on a hair-trigger and with the beautiful weather just around the corner, I wouldn't want to waste it glaring at a computer screen with my finger poised over the execute button.

<Grabbing my straw hat and heading for the beach.>

 

[goofer]

Shelly

Thank you for your comments. You were also negative in August of 2006 when I told everyone on this message board what I was doing in the stock market regarding housing stocks. You were wrong then. The stocks moved up over 30% to 40% in a very short period of time. As I stated on an earlier post on this thread....DO NOT BUY THESE STOCKS NOW !!!! There will be a great opportunity later this year to make some very serious money by being LONG. When "market factors" align themselves as they did last July/August that will be the time to act. You can review those factors by re-reading my posts on the "message of the stock market thread". History always repeats itself because human nature and behavior are very predictable. This is especially true in the arena of the stock market and in speculation in general.

 

[RiverOtter]

But you will give us the 'high sign" .................. right

 

[goofer]

Riverotter

Of course I will give you my opinion when I think it is safe to buy a housing stock. I will be wearing my helmet though, to protect myself from the straw hat wearing non-believers !! ;-)

 

[Smiling JOe]

Goofer, I recall you posting some info on purchasing housing stocks. Will you please remind us of the particular stocks you were referring to?

 

[SHELLY]

Shelly

Thank you for your comments. You were also negative in August of 2006 when I told everyone on this message board what I was doing in the stock market regarding housing stocks.

Back then you first stated that you were a long term investor (2-4 years) and that you were going to build your position in the housing stocks at the stated prices with an expectation of a 50% return holding these stocks 3-4 years. (I took exception to that statement (and still do) and you never really explained your reasoning for the housing turnaround that would make that type of return a reality.)

Then you morphed from a long into a trader and grabbed your profits at 10-20% before they vaporized (which I applauded).

So now--like then--I'm still negative on going long on housing stocks... and so far no one has presented any sound arguments to make me change my mind.

 

[goofer]

SHELLY

My dear lady, I gave a full and comprehensive explanation as to why I thought housing stocks were a buy last August. I obviously was correct but I had no idea that the stocks were about to explode to the upside. The stocks moved too far and too fast to the upside, so I took my profits. I never would look a gift horse in the mouth. If the move was orderly, I would have held but it was not an orderly move. No one ever went broke taking a profit. DO YOU RESENT THE FACT THAT I MADE MONEY ??? After my call every talking head was recommending housing stocks including the " great" Jim Cramer.
You obviously did not think I was right then or now. Your prerogative. I am sorry "you took exception" to my comments I will continue to do what I do with or without your approval. I am just trying to help people on this board learn the intracacies of the stock market. You expect "them" to ring a bell at the bottom.....doesn't work that way in speculation. I have always said that speculation is an art and not a science. Let me amend one thought though. I do not now consider home builders as a long term investment. I DO CONSIDER Lowes, Home Depot, and Masco as suitable long term investments. Different businesses, different cycles and different financials. I will add to my Masco, Home Depot, and Lowes if a better opportunity presents itself.
AND ONCE MORE FOR THE RECORD, SHELLY, I AM NOT SAYING TO BUY HOUSING AND HOUSING RELATED STOCKS NOW. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY STILL AWAITS US !!!! STAY TUNED.

 

[SHELLY]

No one ever went broke taking a profit.

Agree, unless they rolled it over into 2 pre-construction condos in Miami.

DO YOU RESENT THE FACT THAT I MADE MONEY ???

What makes you think that? I congratulated you on your good fortune back then...to do otherwise would be petty.

After my call every talking head was recommending housing stocks including the " great" Jim Cramer.

I don't follow Jim Cramer's Cartoon Carnival.

I will continue to do what I do with or without your approval. I am just trying to help people on this board learn the intracacies of the stock market. You expect "them" to ring a bell at the bottom.....doesn't work that way in speculation. I have always said that speculation is an art and not a science.

Can one teach sucessful speculation?

Here's what I know: Successful Speculation is 99% luck and 1% dumb luck.


Oh, and for the record...I'm not a lady. ;-)

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