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Mango

SoWal Insider
Apr 7, 2006
9,699
1,368
New York/ Santa Rosa Beach
I've never believed the CPI (Consumer Price Index) to be a true gauge of our economy, but yet it's announcements, along with unemployment figures, among other indexes, have the ability to rally stocks, bond, and down the line, plays a role in the housing market.

I found this interesting article on CNN which goes one step further and discusses an index called the [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index"]"Misery Index", [/ame]

"Americans are feeling a lot more economic pain than the government's official statistics would lead you to believe, according to a growing number of experts.
They argue that figures on unemployment and inflation are being understated by the government. Unemployment and inflation are typically added together to come up with a so-called "Misery Index." The "Misery Index" was often cited during periods of high unemployment and inflation, such as the mid 1970s and late 1970s to early 1980s."


From [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index"]Wiki: [/ame]
The CPI has powerful political ramifications, and administrations of both parties have been tempted to change the basis for its calculation. Especially since 1980, the definition of CPI has been altered repeatedly, though economists disagree whether the index underestimates or overestimates the true rate of decline in purchasing power.[1][2]

I often wonder why we, especially during election years, do not hold our candidates and our politicians to a higher standard on what is reported? Should it be eliminated? If so, what would be proposed? Should there be a grading system of certain groups of economists that come closer to the mark? Is the Misery Index a better gauge of our economy?

Is it naive to think that, we, as a country, can enact some enforcement on what is reported?

Discussion?.....................................................
 

Andy A

Beach Fanatic
Feb 28, 2007
4,389
1,738
Blue Mountain Beach
Mango, I agree with everything you have said in your post. That having been said, IT IS AN ELECTION YEAR!!! I really hesitate to believe anything regarding the economy said by either party at this point in time. Politicians of both pursuasions will say anything they think will further their agenda or get them votes. My best suggestion is to look at your own personal situation, and evaluate the national situation from there. Mine tells me things could be a whole hellava lot worse than what we have now.
 

rapunzel

Beach Fanatic
Nov 30, 2005
2,514
980
Point Washington
I remember begging Goofer, Shelley, et al. to explain the CPI calculation reformulation to me a year or so ago. I'm not economics savvy -- but reading how it was changed from a mean number to a selected "median" item seemed very screwy to me.

When I did contracting for medical providers and insurers, we usually based our increases on CPI. Reimbursements were tied to the CPI breakout of healthcare services, and it seemed to me the new calculation method left that number open to manipulation, and invited lobbyists for both groups to enter a bidding war for the ear of the people who would pick the representative median item in a given cycle.

It beggars belief, and I suspect a very smart, very greedy lobbyist was behind it.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,763
803
The CPI is used to determine Cost of Living Adjustments for Federal employees, Social Security recipients, military retiree pay, etc. It is in the US government's best interest that they continue to using financial engineering to come up with a "positive sounding" CPI...they really don't want us to know the truth about how ugly inflation really is--ignorance is bliss.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,763
803
This really has to be true given how many people are so completely divorced from reality!

Problem is, people are now starting to 'feel' the inflation since they find they can't HELOC out of their debts anymore.

.
 

BeachSiO2

Beach Fanatic
Jun 16, 2006
3,294
737
I know I am going to feel stupid here - please remind me what HELOC is???

Home Equity Line of Credit, I believe!

Also, known as the "household ATM".

It's when homeowners were able to secure a line of credit based on the equity in their house, and then use that line of credit to make purchases. Since many properties aren't worth what their mortgage is anymore, there is no equity and thus the banks have stopped allowing withdrawls in the line of credit.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,763
803
Also, known as the "household ATM".

It's when homeowners were able to secure a line of credit based on the equity in their house, and then use that line of credit to make purchases. Since many properties aren't worth what their mortgage is anymore, there is no equity and thus the banks have stopped allowing withdrawls in the line of credit.

HELOC portfolios are sizing up to be the next BIG shoe to drop....think of the US economic situation as Imelda Marcos' closet.

.
 
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