Hurricane Gustav

[sunspotbaby]

Local weatherman reminded us last night that 5-day-out predictions have an average error of 300 miles. Wonder what the average error is for 4 days out. . . . .

I would think the room for error decreases with time. I have often noticed that many Hurricanes like to take a quick right just before landfall.

Yeah, I don't recall any predictions that included the little south/southwest jaunt it took last night! :roll:

 

[Miss Critter]

Yeah, I don't recall any predictions that included the little south/southwest jaunt it took last night! :roll:

It the sowal collective unconscious making the push. Let's keep it up, folks.

 

[Jdarg]

I wouldn't be packing my bags yet; however, early planning reservations are good.

Hey, if you evacuate will you leave Skunky, Punzy and I some Dargaritas in the fridge. :funn: Sorry, I had to do it.

Sorry- the tequila will be with me!!

 

[beachmouse]

One more suggestion if you evacuate- power surges as the grid goes down can zap a lot of home electronics. Unplug and then trip the breakers for everything except for two things- a) the refridgerator and b) the outlet nearest the phone jack. Get a cheap old school answering machine that requires the power to be on in order to give the 'Hi, this is the Funn residence' and you've got an easy way to check the status of the electrical grid when you're away from home.

 

[NotDeadYet]

OK, so I am listening to WWL this morning and the meteorologist is saying that the track changed so much overnight because the National Hurricane Center didn't have the true center of the storm correct yesterday (yet another thing we can blame on George Bush;-)). She opined that our first realistic track would be coming out later today.

That is just completely nutso. Was she suggesting that NHC faked the data from the hurricane hunter flights? Or perhaps they faked the satellite passes too?
And all the other data that not just the NHC but private services use to work up a track? Why would anyone think that?
True enough the NHC could sure use some more money and equipment, but they are still getting real time data and they have some very good mets who might be surprised to hear how they got it wrong.

 

[beachmouse]

The reason why the NHC couldn't find a center of the storm parts of yesterday is that it didn't exist. The mountains of Haiti once more ripped a tropical cyclone apart until it was barely a tropical depression.

Once that happens, and if you've still got a lot of disturbed air and nothing to prevent redevelopment, it's common to see a center of circulation reform elsewhere in the blob'o'weather, something that takes a couple hours to happen.

 

[jodiFL]

The reason why the NHC couldn't find a center of the storm parts of yesterday is that it didn't exist. The mountains of Haiti once more ripped a tropical cyclone apart until it was barely a tropical depression.

Once that happens, and if you've still got a lot of disturbed air and nothing to prevent redevelopment, it's common to see a center of circulation reform elsewhere in the blob'o'weather, something that takes a couple hours to happen.

And once it has gone back down to TD/TS status, the planes dont fly back to determine the true center again until the next day.

 

[shakennotstirred]

One more suggestion if you evacuate- power surges as the grid goes down can zap a lot of home electronics. Unplug and then trip the breakers for everything except for two things- a) the refridgerator and b) the outlet nearest the phone jack. Get a cheap old school answering machine that requires the power to be on in order to give the 'Hi, this is the Funn residence' and you've got an easy way to check the status of the electrical grid when you're away from home.

Good suggestion! We had a power surge near my house last month & 560 homes lost an average of $1,000 in appliances. Most of these appliances had power surge protection.

 

[30ashopper]

The latest models seem to be indicating a shift toward Texas, maybe Houston?

 

[Miss Kitty]

The latest models seem to be indicating a shift toward Texas, maybe Houston?

I made the decision to leave for Houston tomorrow instead of today. This will give us plenty of time to prepare and get PawPaw back to Dallas. Poor thing...Katrina hit on his Aug. 29th bday and now this IDIOT Swedish fish is trying to distrupt his 83rd!

Continue the updates....I really appreciate all your knowledge.