Area Foreclosures

[AAbsolute]

2007
Total Homes Sold- 672 Average Sales Price- $858,516 Median Sales Price- $537,500 Inventory- 2,584

2008
Total Homes Sold- 754 Average Sales Price- $636,225 Median Sales Price- $395,000 Inventory- 2,458

I think the big take away from these numbers is this - we had sales of 754. Total number of sales as a percentage of inventory from the previous year was 29.1%. Yet inventory dropped by only 4.8%! Obviously there's pent up inventory that is coming onto the market just as fast as sales can take it down. That implies more downside to median sell price over the next year or two or.... Once sales start to over take listings, you'll see inventory drop, and we can start talking about a bottom in prices.

I know you have to think abstractly for this but I believe it is quickly approaching the pricing bottom. Completely disregard the inventory and focus on the sales data. This is a price driven market and most everything that's selling is at it's current market bottom price. Nearly no buyers are overpaying which makes artificially inflated sales prices abherrant. There are 1,000's of local properties that have pushed back at the pricing pressure and decided not to sell. The bottom price for local real estate is not going to be $0 in this downturn, maybe in another 70 years, but not now. This downturn's price bottom should be at 1999 levels.

 

[traderx]

It will be interesting to watch the market in 2009. The economy seems to really be breaking down now plus folks have lost one-third or more of their stock investments while the value of their primary residence continues downward. Credit is still tight. It seems to me that the vacation market is the primary value driver in SoWal. If it holds up, further damage could be somewhat contained. It not, it could be ugly. BTW, travel spending was down over 8% in the third quarter of 2008. Have not seen fourth quarter numbers yet.

 

[SHELLY]

I believe it is quickly approaching the pricing bottom.

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[AAbsolute]

SHELLY, I haven't been on Sowal as long as you. Have you made a prediction yet about where you really think the prices will truly stabilize at in terms of a historical value? An example would be where I predicted we would see stabilization ( bottom ) at 1999 price levels.

 

[30ashopper]

Can you add the stats from 2006?

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Sales in 2007 equaled 28.4% of the previous years inventory. Inventory increased 179% between 2006 and 2007. Clearly inventory is on the way down right now.

Hey Josh, care to post those tables of single family home stats for Oct - Dec? It might be interesting to see where we're at.

 

[30ashopper]

SHELLY, I haven't been on Sowal as long as you. Have you made a prediction yet about where you really think the prices will truly stabilize at in terms of a historical value? An example would be where I predicted we would see stabilization ( bottom ) at 1999 price levels.

Real estate price booms tend to follow an 'L', not a 'V'. We'll get to a bottom, then tread sideways. For a good pulse on economic growth watch housing, it tends to be a leading indicator because it's tied to credit and consumer confidence.

 

[AAbsolute]

Real estate price booms tend to follow an 'L', not a 'V'. We'll get to a bottom, then tread sideways. For a good pulse on economic growth watch housing, it tends to be a leading indicator because it's tied to credit and consumer confidence.

Care to stick your neck out there and say where prices are going to bottom at expressed in a historical perspective?

 

[ClintClint]

Care to stick your neck out there and say where prices are going to bottom at expressed in a historical perspective?

Let me jump in here since I don't have a reputation at risk:funn:It looks pretty simple to me. While it may not be the absolute bottom, I feel comfortable saying that a safe buy point will be the inflation adjusted pre bubble price for homes/land. By my calculation that would be approximately $ 185 per sq. ft. based on the area wide averages that Josh publishes. I think the current number is somewhere just above $200 per sq. ft. I suggest that if there is exogenous legislation that provides huge incentives i.e. $20k TAX CREDIT for home purchases, present value calculations can be made and added on a sq. ft basis to adjust.

 

[chanster]

i think watercolor bottoms at $250-$300 a square foot on some properties. if one see's a property they like in the $200-$300 a square foot range i'd not hesitate to buy. obama knows housing is the root of all problems and i bet he tries something major like a huge tax credit to get it going. BUT THE PROBLEM IS FINANCING. ITS SO TOUGH TO GET BANKS TO LOAN NOW.but as a note said even when the bottoms in it will be more a L than a V. remember there also massive pent up demand from sellers who are waiting to dump when the mkt rebounds

 

[30ashopper]

Care to stick your neck out there and say where prices are going to bottom at expressed in a historical perspective?

Your 99-01 estimate probably isn't a bad target. The economy is the big unknown.. where that goes, what happens with inflation, there are a lot of 'what ifs'.