Big price drops at alys beach

[Smiling JOe]

One lot shown as sold by Ebsco in 2008. Six homes shown as sold by Ebsco in 2008. One resale in 2008. And, one home resold by original owner back to Ebsco in 2008 (wonder what that was all about????).

One home shown as sold in 2007.

Not exactly flying off the shelves (but county records may be wrong). At the rate of one lot and six homes per year, they will be built out in about the year 2110.

Terrible assumptions in my opinion. Your build out theory is based on sales being constant with today's snail's pace market, but we all know that nothing in life is constant, and that everything moves in waves.

By the way, when I posted earlier that nine properties show as being sold in Alys Beach in 2008, I didn't include the few which appear to be sold to EBSCO.

Yes, you only count 8 because you are looking at the recorded date of the sale, not the sale date, one of which was late Dec, yet not recorded until Jan.

 

[fisher]

Terrible assumptions in my opinion. Your build out theory is based on sales being constant with today's snail's pace market, but we all know that nothing in life is constant, and that everything moves in waves. By the way, when I posted earlier that nine properties show as being sold in Alys Beach in 2008, I didn't include the few which appear to be sold to EBSCO. Yes, you only count 8 because you are looking at the recorded date of the sale, not the sale date, one of which was late Dec, yet not recorded until Jan.

you are correct. Terrible assumptions. At the sales pace in 2009 as things go further in the tank, the build out may not occur until 2210. Posted via Mobile Device

 

[fisher]

Terrible assumptions in my opinion. Your build out theory is based on sales being constant with today's snail's pace market, but we all know that nothing in life is constant, and that everything moves in waves. By the way, when I posted earlier that nine properties show as being sold in Alys Beach in 2008, I didn't include the few which appear to be sold to EBSCO. Yes, you only count 8 because you are looking at the recorded date of the sale, not the sale date, one of which was late Dec, yet not recorded until Jan.

Thanks for providing better info. As a realtor, you have better access to data. Are the county records close to being correct? Also, any idea of which lots Kurt was referring to above. Nothing is showing as being sold in courthouse records.
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[fisher]

...buyer's remorse? .

Seriously, why did ebsco pay the original owner more than the original purchase price in this market? More than meets the eye here.
Posted via Mobile Device

 

[30ashopper]

Seriously, why did ebsco pay the original owner more than the original purchase price in this market? More than meets the eye here.
Posted via Mobile Device

The owner had an intorductory teaser rate that lasted to June 2008, and an interest only period that didn't balloon till 2015. For whatever reason (preventing a foreclosure in their new upscale community?) they bought the property back and it looks like they paid the built up interest from the teaser period. If they hadn't, the buyer wouldn't have been able to sell, and probably would have gone into foreclosure. (Just a guess anyway)

 

[Kurt]

...and your connection with Alys Beach??

My connection is nothing out of the ordinary. I do not own property there, but I do have business with Alys Beach, along with many others in SoWal at one time or another. In general I am protective of all people and communities in SoWal that have earned my admiration and respect. I like what they are doing and I like the people who work there. I enjoy their events and I like being there to see the beauty of the place. I see it getting better and better, and they should be praised and encouraged for continuing to strive to build a great place.

 

[AAbsolute]

Kurt, I love Alys Beach and it is better than good for 30A and South Walton. You breezed right through the Wave construction point in 1 sentence. Your short statement about Wave was succinct and probably didn't portray the Alys/Wave relationship in an accurate light.

It may be immaterial to some, but as a business plan self performance is a big plus to people who understand these things.

 

[Kurt]

Kurt, I love Alys Beach and it is better than good for 30A and South Walton. You breezed right through the Wave construction point in 1 sentence. Your short statement about Wave was succinct and probably didn't portray the Alys/Wave relationship in an accurate light.

I only post what I know. The real question is why the relationship was brought up in the first place.

 

[AAbsolute]

Back to talking about Alys Beach...I understand that they had and continue to have control over common construction costs by having equitable interests in the labor pool and are directly involved in purchasing. This would seem to allow them to continue development far longer than SoWal communities who don't participate in self performance.

I think Alys is developing wisely.

 

[fisher]

My connection is nothing out of the ordinary. I do not own property there, but I do have business with Alys Beach, along with many others in SoWal at one time or another. In general I am protective of all people and communities in SoWal that have earned my admiration and respect. I like what they are doing and I like the people who work there. I enjoy their events and I like being there to see the beauty of the place. I see it getting better and better, and they should be praised and encouraged for continuing to strive to build a great place.

Your original post was as follows--

"They have recently closed on 1/3 of the available gulf front lots. Hey - 1 out of 3 ain't bad! "


I typically read 1/3 as meaning one-third. Then, you went on to say they sold 1 out of 3. A bit confusing don't you think. Also, you say they sold 1/3 of the available gulf front lots. Not sure what you mean by available. Does that mean currently on the market or total available in Alys. A little more clarity in your post would have helped.

Also, reread my posts. I never, ever said they owned Wave. I asked questions because I was not familiar with how Wave and Ebsco were related. Thanks for clearing that up.

No axe to grind here. If you read through my posts, I have been and continue to be very bearish on the real estate market in SoWal and elsewhere. You don't seem to mind when I question the value of real estate in Watersound, Watercolor, Rosemary or other places along 30A. Yet, you jump all over me when I question the value of Alys. I didn't see you swoop in to take up for JOE on another thread when I questioned the value of the company. Hasn't JOE been more responsible than any other entity for bringing lots of jobs and money to the area over the past 10 years??

I think people looking for RE in the area need to be very, very wary about buying. In Alys, I believe they should be especially wary. Very few sales, very high prices and only a fraction of the way toward buildout. All these things point to bad times ahead for anyone that pays anywhere near current asking prices in Alys. All I am doing is stating my opinions and maybe someone that is looking for RE in the area will read a bear's perspective before listening to the RE pitches of the bulls.

I have been right on about prices along 30A over the past few years. We'll see if I'm right about Alys too (my predictions about few sales in Alys over the last few years have also been right on the mark). So, if being accurate in predicting the market in SoWal means I have lost credibility--no worries. If you don't agree with my opinions, so be it.