I like analogies. I like them because it removes emotion from the current situation and allows you to see something for what it is. As long as it's an apples-to-apples comparison.
No analogy is perfect but speaking of being in the same boat...
I say I'm pointing to a lifeboat because our collective ship is sinking and people on the Titanic are telling me there's free stuff just floating around up here. Is this the same easy money which cranked out that last RE boom? They can have it. This is the 'bigger fool theory' market game by trying to collect more sheckels than the next guy before the bottom drops out. They don't think it will drop. I'm telling you the game is finished.
Where do these 'free markets' and corporations get their valuations today? I watch and trade in the market every day like a lot of people. I keep hearing from these same people they too think it's all a joke and completely rigged yet they still play it. Why? Because it's the only game in town. I say it is not. The only way to win this game is not to play it. Nothing makes you pay attention like having a stake in the game. I have enough in the game to keep my finger on the pulse and that is all. The interesting thing I have seen is the rules of the game keep changing.
There is a fascinating disconnect between the "law and order" society ceaselessly depicted on TV and the realities of the American financial system, which is now totally dependent on lies, fraud, embezzlement and misrepresentation of risk. Remove those and the system implodes.
We have plenty of laws, we just don't heed them because they get in the way of supporting a doomed system. The market trades on Fed monetary actions and constantly revised government numbers. It does not trade anymore on fundamentals. That is a problem. It is a HUGE RED FLAG in a supposed capitalist and free market economy. The signs are everywhere and we won't be able to say we weren't fair warned.
Let me propose a question.
What would failure look like to you? What will you have to personally see, experience or witness before you say to yourself, "this is bad and I need to do something?" I can guarantee you one thing. You will never ever get notice of failure from the masters of the failing system. Baghdad Bob will tell you all is well. Maybe you'll ask me, "what will you have to see before you admit the system is ok?"
I've asked myself this question all my life. I've always worried I wouldn't recognize an emergency situation for what it was in that moment. In the movies, there is music and skillful cuts to action to clue us in something bad is about to happen. "Run you fool!", we yell at the screen. In real life, it works differently. The time to act usually reveals itself only after the moment of impact or until it's too late.
Is a scream someone playing around or a cry for help?
Is someone splashing in the ocean playing around or struggling?
Was that a gunshot or a backfire?
Was that the house settling or my back door being opened.
Was that a bomb that just shook my house or did someone run into my house with their car? ;-)
Is our financial system in real trouble or was it just some Wall Street guys who made bad bets and it's all ok now?
It's a chicken little thing. It is normalcy bias. We get used to everyday noises and events that we have a hard time recognizing true danger in that very moment. I think this is natural and why most people are reactive and not proactive. It is why there is a herd mentality. You see it in nature with stampedes, lemmings off the cliff and runs on a bank.
Let's take a look at what KC Fed President Hoening said 3 days ago.
KANSAS CITY, Missouri (Reuters) - A gold standard that forces countries to back their currency reserves with bullion is a "legitimate" monetary system, though it would not prevent financial crises, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig said on Wednesday. "The gold standard is a very legitimate monetary system," Hoenig said, adding: "We're not going to have fewer crises necessarily. You will have a longer of period of price stability or price level stability, but I don't know that you'll have lower unemployment, I don't know that you'll have fewer bank failures."
Fed's Hoenig Says Gold Standard "Legitimate" System - ABC News
This is unprecedented to hear from a Fed chief. It opens the door to legitimate discussion for backing at least a portion of the dollar with gold. The race is on friends. It has to because that is what must happen. These guys are well aware of what the endgame is. Do not be fooled. When they say don't panic, you need to look for the exit. BUT, what will be the value of gold in order to backstop, say, 40% of the dollar and it's mountain of fiat created wealth while simultaniously artificially depressing the price of gold these past 100 years?
Answer: A LOT more than it currently is.
The greatest wealth transfer of all time has been happening for the past 10 years as gold has risen 400% and the dollar has dropped. It is a slow systematic transfer. The plan is to do it slowly enough that most don't realize they are being boiled alive like the preverbial frog in a pot. Maybe there won't be an overnight collapse. I hope not. Hope is not a strategy though.
"Be prepared." - Lord Baden Powell. I learned that earning my Eagle Scout rank. But if there isn't a collapse into hyperinflation, then you just may wake up 10 more years from now and realize somehow gold has risen another 400% and the dollar is half of it's current value.
Gresham's Law states: "Bad money drives out good if their exchange rate is set by law." Bad money is cheap and easily produced. Good money is un-reproducable and hoarded when bad money flows. Who trades good for bad? Nobody. That is why bad drives out good. Or rather, drives it into collections and holdings.
I do not buy precious metals because I think it is a good investment and that the worst will come true. I buy them because they are a historically stable currency insurance policy with no counterparty risk. The dollar is a derivative of gold.
Derivatives bad - originals good.
Prints cheap - originals expensive.
In an age of electronic accounting and virtual realities, tangible goods are becoming more and more rare and valued. Remember the Matrix or the Wizard of Oz? Most are so deep in the system they don't know they are in one.
If you watch the video I posted above about The Wizard of Oz, you will learn that L.Frank Baum originally wrote that as a metaphor for our central banking system. Dorothy's ruby slippers were silver in the original book. The yellow brick road was a gold bricked road which lead to the wizard behind the curtain. Dorothy, you always had the power to go home. You only need to click your silver heels.
Watch it.
Executive Order 11110 was issued by U.S. President John F. Kennedy on June 4, 1963. This executive order delegated to the Secretary of the Treasury the president's authority to issue silver certificates under the Thomas Amendment of the Agricultural Adjustment Act. A few months later he was dead. In March 1964, Secretary of the Treasury C. Douglas Dillon halted redemption of silver certificates for silver dollars. In the 1970s, large numbers of the remaining silver dollars in the mint vaults were sold to the collecting public for collector value. All redemption in silver ceased on June 24, 1968.
A quarter from 1964 or earlier contains 90% silver. Today it's valued nominally at $5.50 in silver, but in fiat face value terms it's still .25 cents. Who's face is on the '64-'69 half dollar containing 40% silver? Kennedy. Sick.
These are facts. Draw your own conclusions or 'conspiracies'. I'm not a conspiracy nut or a Kennedy/911/whatever theory guy. These are things I came across trying to understand what powers the larger wheel of our system. It's just one of many curiosities one runs across studying the history of currency.
Nobody is bigger than the Fed but gold and silver. They are the enemy of the Fed. If confidence is gained in PMs (precious metals) then there must be a loss of confidence in the dollar. "For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction." There is a tipping point in societies when ideas take root and go 'viral.' This must be avoided at all costs for the Fed to remain in control. They plan to keep control by downplaying gold calling it a bubble and such. Meanwhile they are hoarding all the gold.
Gold's paper derivative, the dollar, has a new derivative. ETFs like gold's GLD or silver's SLV. These instruments can create bubbles. This is the paper price. Paper price and physical availability are two different things. PM ETFs were created to divert investing enthusiasm from the physical to paper. Another derivative. Very crafty. Those ETF holders don't own gold or silver. They own a derivative of a derivative of gold and silver.
I would welcome a paper price plunge of gold and silver. BUT, good luck finding any to buy in the real world when and if that happens. I won't sell mine and any left locally will be bought up quickly or coin shop owners will merely put a sign in the window which says "out of stock." It will be a last desperate attempt to shake confidence in PMs. Do not be fooled. Just because it's cheap on paper does not mean you can actually attain it at that price physically.
Possession is 9/10ths of the law. The ETFs will merely default or pay you in Federal Reserve Notes. They won't pay in gold. You get gold price action sure, but only to be redeemed in paper. Truly mind-boggling to make the decision to invest in gold on paper because it's counter, the dollar, is debasing. THEN only collect your winnings in the very paper you were betting against. Stunning.
Bubble?
The dollar is the last great bubble. After bonds perhaps. Physcial gold is the anti-bubble.
I'm spent. It's difficult and draining for me personally to susinctly explain what I have concluded based on a myriad of reading, watching, studying. I welcome questions, but to me this isn't a debate, it is absolute. Some are equally resolute in the other camp. I understand. I just want others to know there are options and solutions beyond getting so upset and feeling they have no recourse or fair representation.
Your leverage is leveraged on a fiat currency which is backed by nothing.
Be your own central bank.
Have your own reserves.