Real Estate Supply

Definitely... go Donna, go Donna, go Donna. I'd like to know what other strategies the rich have for living with luxuries but not paying too much. We do the "put everything on the credit card and get miles and then fly for free -- but not first class" as well. The four of us went to Hawaii last year and will be going to Italy next year on that strategy.

So, what other strategies for living luxuriously and paying less have you learned. I'm a ready and willing learner! I know planning ahead pays off - I booked the Hawaii and Italy tickets the day they allowed frequent fliers to book them, usually a year in advance.

Excuse me for bucking the cynical posts, but thinking of one's home (primary or otherwise) as an investment is sound financial planning. Well located real estate has been and will continue to be one of the most successful investments one can make, if only one can come up with the initial capital. California is the nation's most expensive real estate market, yet has remained a place where well located properties continue to appreciate at a higher rate than anywhere in the nation. South Walton will reflect this trend in the long run, so long as it protects its natural resources and quality of life. The best real estate in the world is along coastlines and South Walton offers one of the world's most beautiful.

Shelly, the real estate world doesn't need another cheerleader, but you are entirely too cynical. Real estate trends are much more resilient that you seem to believe and good real estate locations (read = coastal areas) seldom experience more than a temporary lull in market conditions. You could look it up.

Thank you for this post.

Shelly, I don't hear many people on this board saying, "Buy a Gulf-front Condo in the Florida Panhandle today!" So what is your beef? I think that many people agree with your general statement that the Condo flipping market is no place to be buying currently. WE UNDERSTAND THAT SO PLEASE STOP SCREAMING IT AGAIN AND AGAIN AGAIN.

If you yell loud enough and long enough and repeatedly then eventually it will be true right?

Shelly, I don't hear many people on this board saying, "Buy a Gulf-front Condo in the Florida Panhandle today!" So what is your beef? I think that many people agree with your general statement that the Condo flipping market is no place to be buying currently. WE UNDERSTAND THAT SO PLEASE STOP SCREAMING IT AGAIN AND AGAIN AGAIN.

Thank you SJ!

I don't think shelly is paying much attention to her reading audience. Most of her posts seem geared toward people who are not regular posters on here. There may be a forum on a board elsewhere who could benefit more from shelly's diatribes. (Maybe one where more of the posters are beginning investors.)

Some good points are made, but I really dislike the relentless bashing.

The folks I'm getting to know on this board are anything but "pie in the sky" investors. They seem to know the amount of risk they are willing to take. And beyond that, as a group, they seem to be some of the most logical, clear-thinking people that I've come across.

shelly has a right to share all the input she wants, but that doesn't mean I have to like the WAY she does it.

Oh - I guess I can be counted amongst her "crazys" for not borrowing all that low interest money (with all the fees and escrows attached). :roll:

The Bulls are runnin again- I love it! ..........


Go Trojans!

So what is your beef? I think that many people agree with your general statement that the Condo flipping market is no place to be buying currently.

Being an economist at heart, I've been following the real estate boom, as I had followed the tech boom before it. Yeah, I know folks say they are not at all alike...but they do have many similarities, especially in the realm of behavioral investing.

Since I live in the area, I have a front-row, in-your-face view of the real estate boom which provides me with fodder for a thesis I'm contemplating. "Behavioral investing and the economic and environmental impact of the real estate boom"--with emphasis on pre-construction condos, speculative land deals, 1031 investment, exotic financing and the resulting economic and environmental impact.

I'd also like to give a SHOUT OUT to Kurt for allowing "another" point of view to be so openly expressed on this board! :clap_1:

Being an economist at heart, I've been following the real estate boom, as I had followed the tech boom before it. Yeah, I know folks say they are not at all alike...but they do have many similarities, especially in the realm of behavioral investing.

Since I live in the area, I have a front-row, in-your-face view of the real estate boom which provides me with fodder for a thesis I'm contemplating. "Behavioral investing and the economic and environmental impact of the real estate boom"--with emphasis on pre-construction condos, speculative land deals, 1031 investment, exotic financing and the resulting economic and environmental impact.

That's nice. Please see Smiling Joe's post above.

Donna ...is one well-informed, common-sense person.

AGREED! :clap_1:

Tagging on to an earlier post of mine, a few days ago, I watched party of a tv show regarding what $2Million buys you where. They did not state their source, but announced that 31% of people buying homes priced over $1Million, were cash buyers.

My God, I started this thread to find out if any REALTORS felt like commenting on their factual activity for the month of december...not to listen to "what everyone's asset allocation is", "why entry level stockbrokers or insurance peddlers are bad", "how to fly free"

Please, I would truly appreciate hearing from the licensed real estate brokers on this site r/e their current level of "closing" activity for the month of December if they would like to comment...thanks, Red

My God, I started this thread to find out if any REALTORS felt like commenting on their factual activity for the month of december...not to listen to "what everyone's asset allocation is", "why entry level stockbrokers or insurance peddlers are bad", "how to fly free"

Please, I would truly appreciate hearing from the licensed real estate brokers on this site r/e their current level of "closing" activity for the month of December if they would like to comment...thanks, Red

Sorry about that Redfisher.
I don't think I ever received the Market Trends report for Dec '05 for Walton Co. SoWalSally, will you please post it. I think I remember seeing it in The Sun.

While it is not a closing, today, I saw a first for me -- the list price on an interior lot was lowered 6.5% below the amount which they paid for it roughly one year ago. (It is Realtor owned.)

My God, I started this thread to find out if any REALTORS felt like commenting on their factual activity for the month of december...not to listen to "what everyone's asset allocation is", "why entry level stockbrokers or insurance peddlers are bad", "how to fly free"

Please, I would truly appreciate hearing from the licensed real estate brokers on this site r/e their current level of "closing" activity for the month of December if they would like to comment...thanks, Red

There was no closing activity for the month of December to speak of. It does seem to really be picking up a little to start the year off. Like a lot people on this board, I have many friends in the business and many people that I work with as well. There were a lot of hollow comments in December like "it seems to be picking up" and such that were mostly related to holiday visitors doing a little of looking around. I went from hearing most of my friends doing zero business to hearing that they are writing contracts now. It remains to be seen if it will stick or if its just a bump up from the holidays.

Thanks SJ, I've got the nov #'s from the dec. 24th sun and they weren't as good as i'd hoped...186 total new and resales of sfr's...i've got these numbers back a few years and the ave seems to be approx 270+ per month, w/the good really good months in the low to mid 300's per month...they held up pretty well thru the summer...point of fact, the nov # last year was this low @ 172...

The lots posted 497 for nov which was not bad...ave between 400-600 w/ highs @ 700-1000...that's why i asked about lot supply too see if that might actually be tightening...point of fact, the nov 04 # was 434

I'm taking mine off the market. Didn't really want to sell but when RE told me how much it was worth I couldn't resist. Coming down in a few weeks to look at house plans. No build-out time, but I'm ready to spend summers, christmas, new years, thanksgiving and any other time I can get there. Only two more years of high school for kids and I can become a full-time resident. Fortunately, we purchased in a non-rental community. Would hate to live there in the summer with the house next door being a revolving door. :clap_1:

The real estate supply continues to FAR outstrip demand and prices continue to fall because of this imbalance. If you look at sales data for the major developments along 30A (not for all of walton county) for the period August through November, you will find that sales of homes and lots are down by 20 to 60% in places like Rosemary, Watersound, Seaside, Watercolor, etc.

Prices on many lots and homes are well below the peak of late 2004 and early 2005. Asking prices for lots that sold for X a year or so ago are sitting right next door to lots on the market today that are listed for 60% of X (and they aren't selling at these drastically reduced prices). Houses that sold for $X per square foot 12 to 18 months ago are sitting next to similar houses that are listed today at prices 10 to 25% less per square foot (and these aren't selling either).

Builders are lowering prices every week and lot owners are doing the same as build out dates quickly approach. The market has a way to go before it hits a trough and starts growing again. There will be some great buying opportunities over the next few years as distressed owners and builders do anything they can to sell homes and lots in a market that is flooded with overpriced inventory.

Asking prices for lots that sold for X a year or so ago are sitting right next door to lots on the market today that are listed for 60% of X (and they aren't selling at these drastically reduced prices).

Could you give 3 or 4 addresses where this is happening now? I am in the market for a lot within walking distance of the beach. Feel free to pm me on this.

Could you give 3 or 4 addresses where this is happening now? I am in the market for a lot within walking distance of the beach. Feel free to pm me on this.

Me too.

Me 3. Please provide at least one example where a lot "next door" is listed for 60% less in each community of "Rosemary, Watersound, Seaside, and Watercolor". And please only provide examples of lots that sold and not relative to lots that were/are listed. There were, and still are, many inflated listings IMO. I hunger for some facts and no surmising so please surprise me with some actual data. I am not doubting what you state, just looking for hard data. Bring it on...

I couldn't afford one even at 60% of what they sold for a year ago, but I have several thousand friends who would be interested. Please send or post details.

I'd also be interested in this info. We are looking for a good deal.

The real estate supply continues to FAR outstrip demand and prices continue to fall because of this imbalance. If you look at sales data for the major developments along 30A (not for all of walton county) for the period August through November, you will find that sales of homes and lots are down by 20 to 60% in places like Rosemary, Watersound, Seaside, Watercolor, etc.

Prices on many lots and homes are well below the peak of late 2004 and early 2005. Asking prices for lots that sold for X a year or so ago are sitting right next door to lots on the market today that are listed for 60% of X (and they aren't selling at these drastically reduced prices). Houses that sold for $X per square foot 12 to 18 months ago are sitting next to similar houses that are listed today at prices 10 to 25% less per square foot (and these aren't selling either).

Builders are lowering prices every week and lot owners are doing the same as build out dates quickly approach. The market has a way to go before it hits a trough and starts growing again. There will be some great buying opportunities over the next few years as distressed owners and builders do anything they can to sell homes and lots in a market that is flooded with overpriced inventory.

Real life example, this is what is going on in Las Vegas right now. I did have a home, still own a condo there for businesss ( I am there every couple of weeks), didnt by it as an investment, just was cheaper than 50 hotel nights a year and more convenient. You can still buy a decent 2br townhouse with a garage for $200K. Anyways, the market went nuts over last couple of years, mostly speculators. Market really pulled back this winter. At one point, there were over 50,000 listings (in a city with about 1.2m residents.... ), mostly investors trying to unload. Most publications expect Vegas prices to actually decrease 5-15% this year as the investors sell out and new home flippers go to closing. If you bought 4-5 year ago, you still have a nice run up in value, but now will pull back some. There is no way to tell, however I wonder how many "investors" (ie: short term flippers) there are in the SoWal market?

jellyfish...I have wondered the same....how many "investors" vs. homebuyers are there in SoWal. I was a homebuyer that just hoped my property did not decrease in value. I would be happy to "break even"....because I have enjoyed our place so much since purchasing in 2001.

I'd say quite a few, jellyfish. I personally know some. But I also know several people like us who were investors but now are in it for the long haul. Gonna take awhile for the others to shake out of the market. Rental market also needs to stabilize. Can't really raise rents (because the supply is increasing) but rents don't cover the escalating costs. I don't think these factors are going to change anytime soon. It will s-l-o-w-l-y get better. A few hurricane-free seasons would help.

Not trying to compare the 2 markets, just pointing out that real estate, although a great long term investment, does move in cycles. It's like retirement savings---yes, stocks are better than bonds/fixed income over the long term, but if you need the money in a down cycle, you're not going to be happy.

Another interesting thing that happend in Las Vegas is that there were so many investment houses for rent that rents went down about 20%. Rents are still depressed today. Supply and demand, eventually, always takes control.

Personally, I think SoWal will continue to escalate, long term, because it is such a unique and beautiful place, and no matter how bad the economy gets, people will still vacation at the beach. Short term, would appear the level of speculation (not just in SoWal but just about everywhere) will take some time to shake out, which should put downward short term pressure on
values. If you're in there long term (like I hope to be) not to worry, just looking for a superior entry point.