Real Estate Supply

Real life example, this is what is going on in Las Vegas

Interesting piece on speculation in Las Vegas

Speculate...and here's what you get, another day older and deeper in debt

Interesting piece on speculation in Las Vegas

Speculate...and here's what you get, another day older and deeper in debt

Interesting and scary read, SHELLY, but SoWal is no Las Vegas. Anyone who knows anything about the fundamentals of real estate should have thought twice before getting caught up in the craze. As a non-coastal town, it has literally twice the number of available area that a similar-sized coastal town would have. Think circle vs. half circle. Add in the beautiful vistas of SoWal and the high (and RARE) coastal elevations, and the markets look completely different from a long-term perspective. JMO.

Not a good sign...beginning of the end IMO

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2006/Jan-07-Sat-2006/business/5248008.html

Also, its a common misconception to assume there is pleny of land in LV.
Looks like open desert all around the city when you fly in, but actually 95% of the state is owned by various Fed and State agencies (DOD, DOE, NPS, etc). The BLM holds land auctions regularly, but the supply is far from plentiful due to this anomally.

Not a good sign...beginning of the end IMO

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2006/Jan-07-Sat-2006/business/5248008.html

Also, its a common misconception to assume there is pleny of land in LV.
Looks like open desert all around the city when you fly in, but actually 95% of the state is owned by various Fed and State agencies (DOD, DOE, NPS, etc). The BLM holds land auctions regularly, but the supply is far from plentiful due to this anomally.

That's very interesting about the government-owned land. I stand corrected then. Thanks for the info.

I do agree that it is the beginning of the end (for now) of condo development. Too much too fast ... in Tampa we've had a huge number of condos built lately, plus a lot of apartment conversions to condos :roll:, and it looks like several of the latest announced communities are just not gonna happen. We're relatively secure here with single family homes, but there are signs of a slowdown. Houses are moving, supply seems to be in balance in most areas, but the price has to be appropriate.

Then again, the US population just hit 300 million, or is about to (can't remember which it is) so the building booms are far from over.

That's very interesting about the government-owned land. I stand corrected then. Thanks for the info.

I do agree that it is the beginning of the end (for now) of condo development. Too much too fast ... in Tampa we've had a huge number of condos built lately, plus a lot of apartment conversions to condos :roll:, and it looks like several of the latest announced communities are just not gonna happen. We're relatively secure here with single family homes, but there are signs of a slowdown. Houses are moving, supply seems to be in balance in most areas, but the price has to be appropriate.

Then again, the US population just hit 300 million, or is about to (can't remember which it is) so the building booms are far from over.

There are 1200 new residents who move to Florida EVERY Day. 90% of them will chose to live within 10 miles of the Ocean (both coasts). Most of them obviously do not have millions to spend but there continues to be great interest in the coast and our region and Sowal has incalculable advantage of having so much land seemingly slated for preservation and I cannot imagine that changing without considerable uproar from residents.

Could you give 3 or 4 addresses where this is happening now? I am in the market for a lot within walking distance of the beach. Feel free to pm me on this.

Here are a few examples from one end of 30A to the other. Get a good realtor who will give you sales data as well as listing data and you can find a whole lot more where these came from. And, remember, these are asking prices. Some of these sellers will be getting desparate to unload (especially lots with buildout times approaching) so make a "ridiculous" offer and you are likely to get it accepted.

1> Cypress Dunes--
Lot 26 listed at $899k with georgeous ocean views. Three lots with exact same views on same street but a little smaller than #26 (#'s 44, 42, and 39) sold for $1.1 million each. Price is just under 20% less than market high water mark.

Lot 110 listed at $350k backs up to cypress pond and lot 102 does the same listed at $349k. Several lots on same street sold for from $450k to $495k. Prices on these two lots are roughly 20% to 35% under market high.

2> Preserve at Grayton--

Lots 76 and 78 are priced under $360k. Lot 77 sold for $420k and lot 75 sold for $525k. Prices are down up to 30%.


3> Watercolor--

House on lot 14 Cottage District with some view of ocean recently sold for $1.69 million (seller took an offer $260k under listing price). A smaller house with no view of the ocean three doors down sold for $1.75 million over a year ago.

Lot 10 in Cypress Cove at $435k price is 25% lower than prices paid for nearby lots. Lot 4 Pine Crest at $550k is 30% lower than lot 7 sold at $773k. Lot 24 Sand Hill at $960K down 20% from lot 5 sold at $1.2 million.

4> Watersound--

Lot 9 Passages listed for $699k after lot 5 sold for $869k price down over 20%. Lot 65 Passages at $485k down 45% from sale of lot 63 at $899k. Lot 17 Wind Rose at $475k versus sale of lot 18 for $969k down over 50%.

5>Rosemary--

49 Rosemary Avenue for sale at about 750 per square foot and 67 Dunmore for sale at about $800 per square foot. Numerous sales in 2004 and early 2005 (including 177 Rosemary, 12 Spanish Town, 46 Cartegna, etc, etc) sold for $1100 to $1250 per square foot and many current listings are well over $1000 per square foot.


This list is only a fraction of listings that are at amounts below market highs and none of these are selling. But, if you feel the market is only in a temporary lull rather than in a decreasing mode, these are outstanding buys. If however, you are like me, keep your powder dry because IMO the deals will only get better over the next year or two, especially on lots in neighborhoods with buildout deadlines that are rapidly approaching.

Here are a few examples from one end of 30A to the other. Get a good realtor who will give you sales data as well as listing data and you can find a whole lot more where these came from. And, remember, these are asking prices. Some of these sellers will be getting desparate to unload (especially lots with buildout times approaching) so make a "ridiculous" offer and you are likely to get it accepted.

1> Cypress Dunes--
Lot 26 listed at $899k with georgeous ocean views. Three lots with exact same views on same street but a little smaller than #26 (#'s 44, 42, and 39) sold for $1.1 million each. Price is just under 20% less than market high water mark.

Lot 110 listed at $350k backs up to cypress pond and lot 102 does the same listed at $349k. Several lots on same street sold for from $450k to $495k. Prices on these two lots are roughly 20% to 35% under market high.

2> Preserve at Grayton--

Lots 76 and 78 are priced under $360k. Lot 77 sold for $420k and lot 75 sold for $525k. Prices are down up to 30%.


3> Watercolor--

House on lot 14 Cottage District with some view of ocean recently sold for $1.69 million (seller took an offer $260k under listing price). A smaller house with no view of the ocean three doors down sold for $1.75 million over a year ago.

Lot 10 in Cypress Cove at $435k price is 25% lower than prices paid for nearby lots. Lot 4 Pine Crest at $550k is 30% lower than lot 7 sold at $773k. Lot 24 Sand Hill at $960K down 20% from lot 5 sold at $1.2 million.

4> Watersound--

Lot 9 Passages listed for $699k after lot 5 sold for $869k price down over 20%. Lot 65 Passages at $485k down 45% from sale of lot 63 at $899k. Lot 17 Wind Rose at $475k versus sale of lot 18 for $969k down over 50%.

5>Rosemary--

49 Rosemary Avenue for sale at about 750 per square foot and 67 Dunmore for sale at about $800 per square foot. Numerous sales in 2004 and early 2005 (including 177 Rosemary, 12 Spanish Town, 46 Cartegna, etc, etc) sold for $1100 to $1250 per square foot and many current listings are well over $1000 per square foot.


This list is only a fraction of listings that are at amounts below market highs and none of these are selling. But, if you feel the market is only in a temporary lull rather than in a decreasing mode, these are outstanding buys. If however, you are like me, keep your powder dry because IMO the deals will only get better over the next year or two, especially on lots in neighborhoods with buildout deadlines that are rapidly approaching.

I'm familiar with a lot of the homes you talked about in Rosemary and you can't compare them only by price per square footage. There is a lot more to it than that. The house on Spanish Town is magnficent and is 1 lot back from the gulf, the one on Rosemary Avenue is a carriage house and is north of 30A. Your stats also don't take in to account build-out times, need of owner to sale, etc. Your comparisons are too simplistic.

I am still waiting to see the listings offered at 60% the last sale price -- apples for apples. CCK is dead on as for the sq ftg. That alone tells me nothing more than half of the picture.

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)

Any update on the progress/ projected completion date of the new Airport?

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)

That has been the thought all along. Not only the midwest, but the northeast, and the west coast as well as more international flyers are expected to come. Already, people from as far away as TX and OH have no problems driving here, and those people will most likely continue to drive to the area. With the new airport, they are looking for a different source of money -- places where money is cheaper (if you no what I mean). That is why I keep saying that ten years from now, you will wish you had bought back when the real estate was "overpriced."

Any update on the progress/ projected completion date of the new Airport?

It has been delayed slightly. The final yes or no was supposed to take place in Nov '05. Currently, the (I think) Airport Authority is still studying the impact issues associated with development of the existing airport and they are expected to give the final yes or no vote in the summer of this year. Plenty of money has already been placed in the coffers to begin costruction when the word is given. Expected date of operation of the new airport is 2009.

It has been delayed slightly. The final yes or no was supposed to take place in Nov '05. Currently, the (I think) Airport Authority is still studying the impact issues associated with development of the existing airport and they are expected to give the final yes or no vote in the summer of this year. Plenty of money has already been placed in the coffers to begin costruction when the word is given. Expected date of operation of the new airport is 2009.

Thanks for this. I was nosing around on the Dept of Environmental Protection site and saw that the wetlands permit for the airport was still being reviewed. Since some of the permit applications date back a couple of years, I guess this could take awhile. Wonder what this issues are exactly.

Thanks for this. I was nosing around on the Dept of Environmental Protection site and saw that the wetlands permit for the airport was still being reviewed. Since some of the permit applications date back a couple of years, I guess this could take awhile. Wonder what this issues are exactly.

To my knowledge, and I have been known to be incorrect, the only thing holding up the project now is the impact study of the existing airport.

I believe there is a link posted somewhere regarding the updates on the airport. Run a search and see what you find.

Edit: here is the link to the pcairport.bechtel.com/
Once on that page, click on "project schedule." I don't think they updated it recently.

http://www.1-888baysite.com/Home.htm


mind blowing - the scale

I know the "investors" say this RE boom is "different" from the tech bubble....but seeing on TV the Mayor of Orange City (AL), an ex-councilman, the city attorney, and a condo developer doing the "perp walk" on bribery charges last week was eerily reminiscent of daze gone by. :shock:

I suspect this is only the tip of the iceberg.

Dot-Condo at Enron-by-the-Sea

We were down last week and had a long talk with our realtor at Watercolor. It seems the new (proposed) airport at PC will have a MUCH bigger effect on real estate values than I would ever had thought. This may come as a surprise but the airport isn't being build to give southerners better deals from Atlanta but to open the mid-west i.e. Chicago et al to the panhandle. As he said these folks now go to Napels (sp) and the south west coast of Fla because it can handle the larger planes but when you compare panhandle real estate prices to that part of Fla we are all most cheap. I guess JOE had a reason to "donate" 4000 ACs to the county. Here come the cheeze heads!(with check books)

I still think that the reality of the new airport is really not going to come close to what everyone seems to be expecting from it. Southwest is not going to set up shop. If you look at their route maps, they don't go into areas with less than half a million people, (save for a couple intra-Texas flights where they can legally use Love Field) and prefer metros of more than a million. Panama City has less than 200K people.

Winter in Naples is appreciably nicer- generally no freeze warnings, and it will be a while before the golf options here are as good there. People in the Midwest are not going to go to Florida for summer vacation when they've got Saugatuck, Charlevoix, Mackinac Island, Petoskey, etc. as a closer trip without the insane summer humidity.

And increase the number of passengers from PC by 50% and you're not going to get non-stop flights to Chicago or NYC. Instead, you get a couple more Delta routes and a daily flight to Houston. Pensacola does get daily nonstops to Chicago, (but not Boston, NYC, Detroit, DC...) but they get 1.5 million passengers a year. So you're talking about pretty much quadrupling the number of passengers currently going out of PC, and still not getting non-stop service to most of the biggers Northeast/Midwest markets.

You will be astonished to see where people come from when there is a nearby international airport to get them there more directly and in a larger aircraft. Southwest Airlines won't matter at all. In fact, I predict that there will be a southeastern version of SW geared to the northern coastal market area. South FL has become a colony of Brooklyn, its quality of life severely eroded by too many high-rise condo buildings, too much traffic, and a generally tacky landscape. South Walton will seem a paradise by comparison. All these folks will need is some of "our kind" to give them the level of comfort to relocate there. The real estate that we feel is off-the-charts expensive today will seem laughably inexpensive to them, as our house was to us four years ago. Their standard is based on extremely expensive markets in or near large U.S. cities and even in European cities.

People from cold climates will continue to flock to Florida. Places like Charlevoix, Harbor Springs, and other Upper Peninsula Michigan communities are very nice, but they have basically two months of warm weather. And it is hot as seven hells and humid there in those summer months, too. The occasional and short of duration winter freeze will be a small price to pay in order to escape the eight to nine months of snow and ice that they encounter in Northern Michigan and other places like this. We have friends there who can't wait until they can move to Fla.

Developers like those at Seaside, WaterColor, and Rosemary Beach have had the exposure and experience from other areas to know what they are talking about. Within five years, South Walton will no longer be just the bastion of vacationers from the southeastern states and a few explorers from the outer states. Just you wait and see. :shock:

Coming from Michigan, I agree that many people from Michigan go to Traverse City, Mackinac Island, etc. (they call it "up north" here). It is as crowded there in the summer as it is in SoWal in the summer. The cars going from Ann Arbor to "up north" in the summer beginning with Memorial Day is a crawl for hours. I've only been "up north" a few times and thought it was very nice, though people who go up there regularly say it is awesome.

If the midwest becomes a prime target for people who want to go to the Panhandle, then this increase in demand will come from several sources (and the midwest is just one of many potential markets):

1. People from the midwest will be people who want to buy a second home to use in the fall, winter, and spring and then rent it out to people from the south in the summer. (like me)
2. Retirees from the midwest who want warmer weather in the winter but who see SoWal as affordable compared to other parts of Florida (and who like the year-round weather -- e.g., avoiding the extreme heat in the summer).
3. Retirees and others who like the natural environment and a "casual" upscale and active lifestyle.
4. Renters from the midwest who can travel in the shoulder months (retirees, singles, married no children, married young children) and who want nice places to rent for off-season vacations.

Word-of-mouth will probably be central to drawing people from the midwest to SoWal. That's how we heard of the area. Once we came here, we loved it and now we tell people. As someone who lives in Michigan, I can say that there is very little advertising for the Panhandle areas for vacations/retirees at this time in our area.

Of course, I'm sure that not everyone wants to see an increase in demand for the area.

I agree with Donna that we are the on tip of the iceberg.

Look for the airport to supply customers for cruise ships, an increasing number of exclusive all-inclusive resorts, theme parks, and unfortunately numerous casinos.

I don't know what the timetable is for all this but it's already started. The panhandle will actually become the American Riviera people have tried to call it for years.

I agree with Donna that we are the on tip of the iceberg.

Look for the airport to supply customers for cruise ships, an increasing number of exclusive all-inclusive resorts, theme parks, and unfortunately numerous casinos.

I don't know what the timetable is for all this but it's already started. The panhandle will actually become the American Riviera people have tried to call it for years.

I thought people called it the "Redneck Riviera." :funn:

I thought people called it the "Redneck Riviera." :funn:

:funn:American = Redneck

Casinos, Cruise ships...Crapola!!!!

Casinos, Cruise ships...Crapola!!!!

Agreed! Though I would be happy to take a cruise to Alaska someday... but not from SoWal.

This is probably an ignorant question, but what is the situation with gambling in the state of Florida? (I am not big on gambling/casinos so have not made it my business to find out.)

BTW
Did y'all know Gulf County is completely dry on Sundays? I mean, you can't even buy a drink in a restaurant. Our neck of the woods should be called "American Never-On-Sunday Riviera."

This past week I have seen three different cars with Michigan plates. They are making their way down here and I am glad our weather is nice for them.