Invest 93 -- Big storm looks like it's still heading toward NOLA

SoWal Expert

Sep 20, '07 · 6:55 PM2,6571

From Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:38 AM EDT on September 20, 2007

This second low pressure system was identified as "93L" by NHC beginning at 2 pm EDT yesterday. However, now that the low has weakened crossing the Florida Peninsula, the "93L" designation has been taken away from it, and attached to the upper level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Recent Satellite loops and the Tampa Bay long range radar show that this non-tropical low pressure system is beginning to get more organized and is acquiring tropical characteristics. Substantial pressure falls are occurring at the surface underneath the upper level low, and this system is on its way to becoming a subtropical depression. A surface low pressure system vertically aligned with a cold-cored upper level low will usually take two or more days to make the transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. Rapid intensification cannot occur until the system is fully warm-core. Since landfall is expected Saturday between the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Louisiana, 93L probably does not have time to become fully tropical. If 93L makes landfall Saturday, it should not have winds stronger than about 55 mph. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all keep 93L's winds below 55 mph. If the storm spends an extra day over water and makes it to Texas, as the ECMWF model predicts, 93L could become fully tropical and make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds. However, there is plenty of dry air in the environment, and I don't think the storm will be able to intensify to a strong tropical storm. The primary threat from 93L will be heavy rain, and the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas border can expect a soaking from this system.

Replies

SoWal Expert

Sep 20, '07 · 8:21 PM#2

Sounds like a rainy weekend is shaping up! :clap:

SoWal ExpertAuthor

Sep 20, '07 · 8:32 PM#3

Re: Invest 93 -- Big storm heading towards Panama City? !!!

Sounds like a rainy weekend is shaping up!

That is not good for getting your screened porch completed.

Edited Sep 20, '07 · 8:48 PM

SoWal Expert

Sep 20, '07 · 8:34 PM#4

That is not good for getting your screened porch completed.

I am looking forward to hearing rain on that tin roof!

SoWal ExpertAuthor

Sep 20, '07 · 8:45 PM#5

Re: Invest 93 -- Heading Toward Panama City now? !

I just checked the models. :shock: Of the three computer models shown, one track is headed for Mississippi, one for Alabama, and one for the Panama City area!

If it grows and heads this way, you can join me as I head across the Bay and well hang out at Camp Smiling JOe in Freeport and boil some Crabs on the propane burner, but bring some pillows and sleeping bags.

As another note, my trick knee is hurting now, so I know we are in for some weather of some sort.

Edited Sep 20, '07 · 8:50 PM

SoWal Expert

Sep 20, '07 · 8:50 PM#6

I just checked the models. :shock: Of the three computer models shown, one track is headed for Mississippi, one for Alabama, and one for the Panama City area!

If it grows and heads this way, you can join me as I head across the Bay and well hang out at Camp Smiling JOe in Freeport and boil some Crabs on the propane burner, but bring some pillows and sleeping bags.

I need an RV. :blink:

SoWal ExpertAuthor

Sep 20, '07 · 8:52 PM#7

I need an RV.

I have a few tents you could borrow, but I wouldn't trust the big limbs in the Oak Trees. We could set you up a bed on my screened porch (no tin roof though).

SoWal Expert

Sep 20, '07 · 9:00 PM#8

I spent the afternoon somewhere around Alaqua- the cross country team ran hills (big ones) on Eglin land. It was absolutely beautiful. But the snake skeleton I found (still with skin and looked to be a pygmy rattler) reminded me that there are too many critters out there to sleep on the ground.

Beach Fanatic

Sep 20, '07 · 9:05 PM#9

Turned over the weather channel and Jim Cantore (sp?) is in Pensacola! :creepy:

I like the guy... but generally he seems to be in the center of the storm. I want rain, but I don't want rain that bad. :roll:

hmmmm......can't remember

Sep 20, '07 · 9:35 PM#10

I just checked the models. :shock: Of the three computer models shown, one track is headed for Mississippi, one for Alabama, and one for the Panama City area!

If it grows and heads this way, you can join me as I head across the Bay and well hang out at Camp Smiling JOe in Freeport and boil some Crabs on the propane burner, but bring some pillows and sleeping bags.

As another note, my trick knee is hurting now, so I know we are in for some weather of some sort.

Would someone please bring some trick knees up here? My dogwood is dying!!! And all that rain looks like it's going west of here. :bang:

I need an RV.

If you need to come to the nice, dusty foothills of beautiful North Georgia, I have a couple of extra places to sleep!

hmmmm......can't remember

Sep 21, '07 · 6:17 AM#11

Al Roker just said that y'all are getting nasty weather today...Be safe!!!

SoWal Expert

Sep 21, '07 · 6:30 AM#12

Would someone please bring some trick knees up here? My dogwood is dying!!! And all that rain looks like it's going west of here.

If you need to come to the nice, dusty foothills of beautiful North Georgia, I have a couple of extra places to sleep!

Wow- it is not only missing you, it is heading in the opposite direction! Sorry NoHall!

Looks like I will need to get out a big stack of towels- we are going to have some wet dogs.

SoWal ExpertAuthor

Sep 21, '07 · 7:15 AM#13

Would someone please bring some trick knees up here? My dogwood is dying!!! And all that rain looks like it's going west of here.

If you need to come to the nice, dusty foothills of beautiful North Georgia, I have a couple of extra places to sleep!

My knee predicts that you are going to get some hard fast rain tomorrow or Sunday.

SoWal ExpertAuthor

Sep 21, '07 · 7:20 AM#14

A slight rain has started in SoWal.

SoWal Expert

Sep 21, '07 · 7:21 AM#15

I just discovered that I no longer own a decent raincoat.

Guess I'll just have to go shopping. :lol:

SoWal ExpertAuthor

Sep 21, '07 · 7:28 AM#16

I just discovered that I no longer own a decent raincoat.

Guess I'll just have to go shopping.

I think all of my raincoats are in boxes somewhere, not even in this house. Guess I'll just have to wear my swimsuit and Chacos.

SoWal ExpertAuthor

Sep 21, '07 · 7:31 AM#17

The computer model maps just updated. Look at the linked photos above, which are updated now. One model has moved more toward SoWal (was closer to Panama City) and one towards Navarre. The storm's center is currently reported about 100 miles south of Apalachicola, and heading NNW. Batten down the hatches, close the sunroofs and close the windows unless you want boats, cars and your house, filled with water.

Beach Fanatic

Sep 21, '07 · 7:40 AM#18

Here, check this out -

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif

Jim Cantori - He is the reason I stopped watching the weather station. It is all BS for him. He WANTS to be in the middle of everything, so he tries to create excitment and create situations. The guy was laughable during Hurricane Dennis.

SoWal ExpertAuthor

Sep 21, '07 · 7:44 AM#19

Here, check this out -

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif

Jim Cantori - He is the reason I stopped watching the weather station. It is all BS for him. He WANTS to be in the middle of everything, so he tries to create excitment and create situations. The guy was laughable during Hurricane Dennis.

Thankfully, I no longer watch TV unless I catch a glance at the gym.

Beach Fanatic

Sep 21, '07 · 7:56 AM#20

Had a little teaser shower that came and went.
Bring on the downpour!

Darlene is my middle name, not my nickname

Sep 21, '07 · 7:57 AM#21

Well this is just great....my co-worker and friend, and her 2 sisters and another friend are at Emerald Hill Condos. (the one I stayed in in July) for the weekend. They got there yesterday afternoon. I guess they are going to get wet. I hate that for them, but I am glad that you all will be getting some much needed rain. Hopefully the storm will not be too bad. We sure could use some up this way.....

SoWal ExpertAuthor

Sep 21, '07 · 8:01 AM#22

Well, your friends certainly aren't getting any sunshine. Been overcast for two days.

Beach Fanatic

Sep 21, '07 · 8:34 AM#23

Here, check this out -

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_93.gif

Jim Cantori - He is the reason I stopped watching the weather station. It is all BS for him. He WANTS to be in the middle of everything, so he tries to create excitment and create situations. The guy was laughable during Hurricane Dennis.

I agree. The hype is way over-done.

Last night they were hyping "The Disturbance along the Gulf Coast" (cue the ominous music). How lame, it's not even a Tropical Storm and they are still trying to wip up excitement.

bean

Sep 21, '07 · 8:41 AM#24

Well this is just great....my co-worker and friend, and her 2 sisters and another friend are at Emerald Hill Condos. (the one I stayed in in July) for the weekend. They got there yesterday afternoon. I guess they are going to get wet. I hate that for them, but I am glad that you all will be getting some much needed rain. Hopefully the storm will not be too bad. We sure could use some up this way.....

bummer

Stay safe and dry everyone!

Skunky

Sep 21, '07 · 8:43 AM#25

I agree. The hype is way over-done.

Last night they were hyping "The Disturbance along the Gulf Coast" (cue the ominous music). How lame, it's not even a Tropical Storm and they are still trying to wip up excitement.

You know they are praying for a New Orleans event. Instant drama and ratings.

SoWal Expert

Sep 21, '07 · 8:59 AM#26

I agree. The hype is way over-done.

Last night they were hyping "The Disturbance along the Gulf Coast" (cue the ominous music). How lame, it's not even a Tropical Storm and they are still trying to wip up excitement.

Well, they got the "Disturbance" part right. I'm pretty disturbed. :blink: