Invest 93 -- Big storm looks like it's still heading toward NOLA

SoWal Expert

Sep 20, '07 · 6:55 PM2,6571

From Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:38 AM EDT on September 20, 2007

This second low pressure system was identified as "93L" by NHC beginning at 2 pm EDT yesterday. However, now that the low has weakened crossing the Florida Peninsula, the "93L" designation has been taken away from it, and attached to the upper level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Recent Satellite loops and the Tampa Bay long range radar show that this non-tropical low pressure system is beginning to get more organized and is acquiring tropical characteristics. Substantial pressure falls are occurring at the surface underneath the upper level low, and this system is on its way to becoming a subtropical depression. A surface low pressure system vertically aligned with a cold-cored upper level low will usually take two or more days to make the transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. Rapid intensification cannot occur until the system is fully warm-core. Since landfall is expected Saturday between the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Louisiana, 93L probably does not have time to become fully tropical. If 93L makes landfall Saturday, it should not have winds stronger than about 55 mph. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all keep 93L's winds below 55 mph. If the storm spends an extra day over water and makes it to Texas, as the ECMWF model predicts, 93L could become fully tropical and make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds. However, there is plenty of dry air in the environment, and I don't think the storm will be able to intensify to a strong tropical storm. The primary threat from 93L will be heavy rain, and the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas border can expect a soaking from this system.

Replies

Meow

Sep 21, '07 · 9:01 AM#27

Well, they got the "Disturbance" part right. I'm pretty disturbed.

...that you are! P, L and L!

SoWal Expert

Sep 21, '07 · 9:03 AM#28

...that you are! P, L and L!

;-)

I just noticed that The Weather Chammel is switching gears- now we are calling our little disturbance "drought relief" and making a big deal about that!!

Beach Fanatic

Sep 21, '07 · 9:05 AM#29

You know they are praying for a New Orleans event. Instant drama and ratings.

Hmm yes, but on the positive side -hotels in Nola are probably filling up as every TV anchorman and woman from around the globe flock to film Katrina Part Deux; only to witness what is inevitably going to be just a rainy weekend.

.....but those hotels need the business so alls well that ends wet.

Beach Fanatic

Sep 21, '07 · 9:08 AM#30

Well, they got the "Disturbance" part right. I'm pretty disturbed.

Yes, but we all know your disturbance is clinical, not meteorological. :cool:

SoWal Expert

Sep 21, '07 · 9:27 AM#31

Yes, but we all know your disturbance is clinical, not meteorological.

Depends on the day- sometimes it is both. Like today. :rolling:

beats on hood

Sep 21, '07 · 9:36 AM#32

They just said on TV that it is turning north rather than its former westerly track. We were gonna drive to the beach this weekend, but decided not -- the weather is gonna be wet and windy. Yuck!

Beach Fanatic

Sep 21, '07 · 9:48 AM#33

Navy NRL is now identifying the blob as TD Ten. In all likliehood, we'll probably get a nice shiny NHC 10am advisory complete with tropical storm watch/warning areas.

Beach Fanatic

Sep 21, '07 · 10:29 AM#34

Here it is, 10 a.m. tropical storm warning, even though NHC is calling it a subtropical depression:

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Beach Fanatic

Sep 21, '07 · 2:04 PM#35

Turned over the weather channel and Jim Cantore (sp?) is in Pensacola!

I like the guy... but generally he seems to be in the center of the storm. I want rain, but I don't want rain that bad. :roll:

_______________________________________________________________
It is amazing how The Weather Channel has found it convenient to boost ratings by instilling fear and aprehension into everyone along the Gulf Coast. It has been a "non-event" huricane season so far in the U.S, and frankly, that is not really good business for the Weather Channel.

In actuality, the Weather Channel can do a service and a dis-service at the same time...

Thus, I am sure, is the reason for Jim Cantore's over dramatization (he should have gone into acting really) of a sub-tropical sytem that will BENEFIT the Gulf Coast with rain.

Skunky

Sep 21, '07 · 5:57 PM#36

Looks like 'it' will come ashore tonight east of Mobile Bay. I for one have enjoyed the rain and light breeze.

SoWal Expert

Sep 21, '07 · 6:11 PM#37

Yes, but we all know your disturbance is clinical, not meteorological.

Depends on the day- sometimes it is both. Like today.

SoWal Expert

Sep 21, '07 · 9:06 PM#38

Not much dramatic storm action.

But a good rainy night for reading and sleeping!

SoWal Expert

Sep 21, '07 · 9:07 PM#39

Not much dramatic storm action.

But a good rainy night for reading and sleeping!

hmmmm......can't remember

Sep 21, '07 · 9:12 PM#40

My knee predicts that you are going to get some hard fast rain tomorrow or Sunday.

You might want to check with your other knee. Forcast for same ol' nothin' here.

SoWal ExpertAuthor

Sep 22, '07 · 6:26 AM#41

Looks like my knee was wrong about your town getting wet. There was a 50/50 chance of accuracy, as good as the weather man.

I'm not sure what happened to Invest 93. We had some wind whipping around last night. Might have some waves out there this morning, but I see only a very slightly wind in the tree tops right now.

SoWal Insider

Sep 22, '07 · 6:38 AM#42

We have a chance of rain from it tomorrow unless the forecast has changed. We need it bad. Still 16 inches below normal for the year. Hoping for an increase in rain here during the fall and winter months so we can make up some of that rain deficit.

beats on hood

Sep 22, '07 · 8:03 AM#43

A friend of ours who has a house on the west end of 30-A says he saw some beach erosion from the storm. Does anyone know if we got any erosion on the other end, say, on Seagrove Beach?

Beach Fanatic

Sep 22, '07 · 9:27 AM#44

I have heard that in most areas there was only minor beach erosion (if any) and no dune erosion or impacts to seawalls. Has anyone else heard or seen anything different?

beats on hood

Sep 22, '07 · 9:47 AM#45

Thanks for the info. I'm coming down Tuesday -- I'll check out Seagrove then.

SoWal Insider

Sep 22, '07 · 10:17 AM#46

Now they are showing rain for us mostly on Monday and Tuesday instead of Sunday. Sure hope we get it. We like getting the rain from the tropical systems. Bring it on.

hmmmm......can't remember

Sep 22, '07 · 10:19 AM#47

Looks like my knee was wrong about your town getting wet. There was a 50/50 chance of accuracy, as good as the weather man.

I'm not sure what happened to Invest 93. We had some wind whipping around last night. Might have some waves out there this morning, but I see only a very slightly wind in the tree tops right now.

Now they are showing rain for us mostly on Monday and Tuesday instead of Sunday. Sure hope we get it. We like getting the rain from the tropical systems. Bring it on.

Nothin. We got more nothin, with more nothin in the forecast. It gets cloudy and humid, and refuses to rain. :bang:

SoWal Expert

Sep 22, '07 · 1:23 PM#48

I have heard that in most areas there was only minor beach erosion (if any) and no dune erosion or impacts to seawalls. Has anyone else heard or seen anything different?

Our house is still standing. :floor:

;-)

Beach Fanatic

Sep 22, '07 · 3:18 PM#49

A friend of ours who has a house on the west end of 30-A says he saw some beach erosion from the storm. Does anyone know if we got any erosion on the other end, say, on Seagrove Beach?

I went down to the beach at Seagrove this morning. Just the wind and rain filling in all the footprints, nothing else.

beats on hood

Sep 22, '07 · 3:37 PM#50

I went down to the beach at Seagrove this morning. Just the wind and rain filling in all the footprints, nothing else.

Thanks for the info.

SoWal Expert

Sep 22, '07 · 4:29 PM#51

The Weather Channel guy that was on awhile ago seemed really disappointed. What a bust for them.

Mom said there is a double red flag and the sheriffs are patrolling the beach in Seagrove and making everybody get out of the water. Yes, there were people swimming. :blink: