Back to SoWal Lounge

Invest 93 -- Big storm looks like it's still heading toward NOLA

Smiling JOe avatar
SoWal Expert
2,657 views1



From Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:38 AM EDT on September 20, 2007


This second low pressure system was identified as "93L" by NHC beginning at 2 pm EDT yesterday. However, now that the low has weakened crossing the Florida Peninsula, the "93L" designation has been taken away from it, and attached to the upper level low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Recent Satellite loops and the Tampa Bay long range radar show that this non-tropical low pressure system is beginning to get more organized and is acquiring tropical characteristics. Substantial pressure falls are occurring at the surface underneath the upper level low, and this system is on its way to becoming a subtropical depression. A surface low pressure system vertically aligned with a cold-cored upper level low will usually take two or more days to make the transition to a warm-cored tropical storm. Rapid intensification cannot occur until the system is fully warm-core. Since landfall is expected Saturday between the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Louisiana, 93L probably does not have time to become fully tropical. If 93L makes landfall Saturday, it should not have winds stronger than about 55 mph. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all keep 93L's winds below 55 mph. If the storm spends an extra day over water and makes it to Texas, as the ECMWF model predicts, 93L could become fully tropical and make landfall as a strong tropical storm with 60-70 mph winds. However, there is plenty of dry air in the environment, and I don't think the storm will be able to intensify to a strong tropical storm. The primary threat from 93L will be heavy rain, and the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas border can expect a soaking from this system.

Replies

54
Beach Fanatic
#52
The Weather Channel guy that was on awhile ago seemed really disappointed. What a bust for them.

Mom said there is a double red flag and the sheriffs are patrolling the beach in Seagrove and making everybody get out of the water. Yes, there were people swimming.:blink: :bang:

It has ended up being a really nice day!:clap:

Does anyone know if there is a double flag in Okaloosa County? I'll melt if I got out in the rain.....:blush: The lifeguards told me that the only time there is a double red flag is if someone drowns.

On another note, Kurt, how much trouble would it be if you could somehow show the date and time on post?

Edited

Beach Runner avatar
beats on hood
#53
The Weather Channel guy that was on awhile ago seemed really disappointed. What a bust for them.
You are correct. They were totally wishing for a bad storm to give them a raison d'?tre.
TreeFrog avatar
Beach Fanatic
#54
You are correct. They were totally wishing for a bad storm to give them a raison d'?tre.

A couple of weeks ago Jim Cantore was somewhere in the Caribbean for a storm. He's out on the beach in his rain slicker and hat, doing his best to look grim and hunkered down. Behind him in the shot, people are strolling along the beach in T shirts, shorts, and bathing suits... I think he's still bummed over having to ride out Katrina in that hospital with no power and his satellite truck washed away by the storm surge.

You know, the Weather Channel used to be pretty calm and informative about storms. Then, Anderson Cooper went and stood out in the wind for Ivan, I think, and gave us the high drama of a motel sign blowing down. But his ratings blew the Weather Channel out of the water, so now we've got all this sensational horse exhaust from them.

For my part, I just keep on reading Jeff Masters' blogs. Not only does he avoid the drama, he knows WAY more about tropical storms than anyone on TV, and he's willing to share what he knows. Just recently, he correctly predicted that Invest 93/TD10 wouldn't develop, while it was still over the Bahamas over a week ago.

Edited

NoHall avatar
hmmmm......can't remember
#55
A couple of weeks ago Jim Cantore was somewhere in the Caribbean for a storm. He's out on the beach in his rain slicker and hat, doing his best to look grim and hunkered down. Behind him in the shot, people are strolling along the beach in T shirts, shorts, and bathing suits... I think he's still bummed over having to ride out Katrina in that hospital with no power and his satellite truck washed away by the storm surge.

You know, the Weather Channel used to be pretty calm and informative about storms. Then, Anderson Cooper went and stood out in the wind for Ivan, I think, and gave us the high drama of a motel sign blowing down. But his ratings blew the Weather Channel out of the water, so now we've got all this sensational horse exhaust from them.

For my part, I just keep on reading Jeff Masters' blogs. Not only does he avoid the drama, he knows WAY more about tropical storms than anyone on TV, and he's willing to share what he knows. Just recently, he correctly predicted that Invest 93/TD10 wouldn't develop, while it was still over the Bahamas over a week ago.

I love how one of the stations here does there little teasers for the news: "We have Glen Burns standing by in the Severe Weather Center keeping an eye on Storm Tracker 2..."

I'll drop everything and turn up the volume, only to realize that it's 70 degrees out with a two-mile-an-hour wind blowing. I always feel so duped.

But I guess they know that I'm not going to drop everything when they start playing "Beautiful Day" and announce that Glen Burns is standing by in the Perfect Weather Center keeping an eye on the clear blue skies...

Checking your forum account

Please wait while we verify your forum account.

New posts