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futurebeachbum

Beach Fanatic
Jul 11, 2005
1,100
375
69
Snellsburg, GA
www.myfloridacottage.com
I saw this headline today in the McNews:

Now I am really worried...

I think it is safe to assume that the so-called 'experts' are wrong at least as much as they are right about anything related to weather and climate that is happening more than 1 week in the future.

Based on their past performance (such as the 'heavier-than-normal' hurricane predictions for the past few years which didn't ever happen) there's a good chance that we are gonna have a heavy storm year this year.

Ouch!
 

Miss Kitty

Meow
Jun 10, 2005
47,011
1,131
70
I refuse to discuss this! Sunshine, rainbows, and green flags all summer!

Add some unicorns and annoyingly happy fairies to that thought!

fbb...go pack. :wave:
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,644
1,773
I use the WYSIWYG (What you see is what you get) forecast model for weather and hurricanes.
 

grammyc

Beach Comber
If you live south of I-10 that "H" word only comes to your mind when someone of higher authority says LEAVE its gonna get you. Even then you don't really want to talk about it, you just think real hard about your OWN ideas as to wether or not you should. Life on or really near the beach has its price to be paid! Lets just say I"VE PAID already , so that's all I need to say! Will be in Santa Rosa Beach next week, can't wait! Maybe I'll see some of y'all! If I see ya, say HELLO! :clap:Diane
 

Lynnie

SoWal Insider
Apr 18, 2007
8,151
434
SoBuc
Pay attention to millipedes, yellowflies and turtle nests......all in late May, early June.

In 2004 and 2005, thousands of dead millipedes and horrific yellow fly seasons.
A friend informed me last year (I will try to locate the email) that turtles nest in safe areas. Turtle season is exactly the length of hurricane season - turtle nests mean no hurricanes.

I follow nature and the Farmer's Almanac ('cause they post great dates for baking and hair cuts, too!) ;-)

And, I heard something else today (maybe from Jim Cacciatore??), but now I can't remember! When I remember, I'll post it!!

Clear skies for 2009!

Cheer~~~~~~~~~
 
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Lynnie

SoWal Insider
Apr 18, 2007
8,151
434
SoBuc
Email about hurricanes and turtles~~~~~~




Where Fay might go then is still a matter of considerable disagreement among the models, with the GFDL eying Miami, the NOGAPS and UKMET the Florida Panhandle, and the HWRF, ECMWF, and GFS the west coast of Florida. One interesting forecast, relayed to me by a gentleman who lives by the coast in Magnolia, Alabama, concerns sea turtle nesting behavior along the Alabama coast. Here's the email I got before last year's hurricane season:


Dear Dr. Masters,


I live in Magnolia Springs, Alabama, just 15 miles from the direct path of Hurricane Ivan. I have a friend of mine who has been an in-shore charter boat captain in this area for 30 years. He has the answer to all the failed hurricane predictions we keep making. He told me that Sea Turtles have the answer. Every year sea turtles start nesting around the first of June, unless a hurricane comes that year. Well, storms usually come after June, right? So how could they know? Well he stated last year that I had nothing to worry about because the turtles were on point, even though hundreds of scientists had predicted the worst season in history. Well he made a believer out of me. 2006 nesting, 2005 no nesting, 2004 no nesting and so on. My memory is not that good. He said that when nesting, a hurricane will not hit within 200 miles of the area. Now, I'm no betting man, but I will put $1000 on this year that we won't get hit. How about it?


Thank you,


TH


Well, Mr. Henry's sea captain friend was right last year, and I'm glad I didn't bet the $1000! I contacted Mr. Henry again this June to ask him what the sea turtles were forecasting for the 2008 hurricane season. The forecast: the sea turtles are nesting, so no hurricanes on the Alabama, Mississippi, or nearby Florida Panhandle coasts this year. Thus, the sea turtles think the most westerly path over the Florida Panhandle favored by the NOGAPS model will not happen. We shall see! It would be nice to have another reliable forecast method to use.

 
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