.
Fact-checking the Ryan budget plan
"Ryan on Tuesday suggested he was going to get rid of ?these accounting tricks, all these budget gimmicks? in writing his budget plan. So how did he do?
His budget presentation shows a scary-looking graph depicting an ocean of red stretching out into the future. The graph is titled, ?We are in a Spending-Driven Debt Crisis? and says it is based on ?CBO?s Alternative Fiscal Scenario.? But then when you actually look at one of CBO papers that outlines this scenario, it turns out that the scary scenario is also based on taxes being too low, not just spending being too high.
he alternative fiscal scenario also accounts for other aspects of current law, such as assuming discretionary spending will match the rate of growth of the nation?s economy (gross domestic product). But a large part of the ocean of red comes from the revenue side of the equation, not just the spending side, as Ryan implies.
Ryan also claims that his proposal has the imprimatur of the Congressional Budget Office. The budget document declares: ?According to the Congressional Budget Office, this budget charts a path to complete balance. By 2040, the CBO estimates that this budget will produce annual surpluses and begin paying down the national debt.?
though Ryan relies on the CBO to vouch for his plan, he appears to ignore CBO estimates that a repeal of the health care law would lead to an increase in the deficit. Instead, a substantial part of his claimed deficit reduction ? $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years ? comes from repealing the health care law. Where do those numbers come from? Ryan does not explain, and his spokesman did not respond to a query.
In one of the more dubious assertions, Ryan relies on a report from the conservative Heritage Foundation?s Center for Data Analysis to claim his budget would result in a gusher of jobs.
The Heritage uses ?dynamic? budget analysis, which assumes such things as lower tax rates and less government spending will result in a burst of economic growth and thus more tax revenues, higher wages and more jobs. There has been a long dispute among economists about the actual effect ? and whether it can be accurately measured. At first glance, this Heritage model comes up with some numbers that seem rather strange ? in fact, so strange that Ryan does not even claim them in his presentation.
For instance, the Heritage analysis claims that the unemployment rate would hit 2.8 percent in 2021, which is a rate that has never been achieved. ....."
The Pinocchio Test
As with President Obama?s budget, the Ryan budget plan relies on dubious assertions, questionable assumptions and fishy figures. The ideas may be bold, but the budget presentation falls short of his claim that he is getting rid of budget gimmicks.
Fact-checking the Ryan budget plan - The Fact Checker - The Washington Post
.