skier said:
Ladies and gents--it's great to have a debate about whether there is a bubble or not and whether or not prices will go up or go down. What I find amazing is that none of you pie in the sky folks will admit that there is a glut in the market--especially in the high end areas of 30A. There may be some home selling in the 300's or 400's in other areas. But, the million dollar plus properties aren't moving, period. Those of you that see the returns of the last 2 years and think that they can continue are not dealing with reality. Too few people can afford the homes at the current prices. Greater than inflation growth would leave only a handful of people in the US capable of affording to buy. And, comparing a market like Orlando where most of the people need the homes to live in to a market like south walton is preposterous. As you said, real estate is local. And the local market in south walton stinks.
I did lower my price a couple of weeks ago. It is now below the most recent prices paid per square foot. It is also beautifully decorated, a stones throw from the beach, has top of the line finishes, is extremely well built and relatively new. Still, not even one call and only a couple of lookers (not capable of affording the home) at an open house. I also walked through a couple of the homes during the parade of homes a couple of weeks ago. One was in Watercolor. The builder had huge numbers of lookers. The house is beautiful and as close to the beach as you can get in Watercolor. It did not sell. In fact, I saw on the MLS that he just lowered his price by $400k. Those builders that don't have lots and lots of financial backing will be lowering prices like crazy to get rid of their inventory.
Sorry guys--it ain't happening in south walton right now. It may come back next spring or later, it may not. Time will tell and I may be a long term owner whether I like it or not.
Addressing the bold statements:
-While I am not a Pie in the Sky person, I have been saying that there are too many listings on the market. The majority are unmotivated sellers like yourself. If they were motivated, they would find a price point that moves. I you don't have people looking at your house, it is overpriced. For the right price, I know many people that would buy your home.
A motivated seller prices his property to sell. Dropping your price below recent sales price, does not mean much of anything if you still don't have lookers. You may take a loss to move your property. A truely motivated seller would do so.
I know plenty of builders, none of which is looking to decrease inventory. If they decrease inventory, they will not be able to build anything, thereby losing their job. Builders are not going to be selling at losses. They cannot operate if they do so.
Skier, I don't disagree with some of your statements. There is much inventory on the market. Buyers, as we have known them, are getting outpriced. (I think the people we call buyers will be changing over the upcoming years.) Many people are speculating and will get hit hard. If you want to dance, you have to pay the band. While there are many speculators, there are also many people who are looking ahead to their retirement. As long as people have some retirement years ahead of them, buying a house in this area for retirement, will probably pay off much more greatly than protecting the money in a Roth IRA.