A commentary on the bubble

[Miss Kitty]

Skier I enjoy your posts. Here's your dilemna - post your MLS# or house address here and someone on the board is likely to buy it just to shut you up.

Of course we all know that you wouldn't. Shut up that is.


The real estate craziness has ended in SoWal. Not much is moving now until all the dust settles. I expect that to be in the Spring/Summer next year. Then things will start moving again at a "normal" pace, but it still may be a little wierd until the truly "normal" cycle begins the year after. A lot of speculators and realtors will be gone soon.

I have yet to see any panic or dumping on the market. Until that happens - keep your "I told you so's" in check.

You are correct on this one...I asked for the MLS# months ago and was told by skier that he would not divulge that info!!!! Fear for his privacy or just a bad business move (?), I'm not sure, but you echo my feelings...post it here and it just might sell...if priced sensibly!!!

 

[skier]

I can't believe I am arguing about a real estate bubble with all the tragedy unfolding in New Orleans, Miss and Ala. Sorry.

That's it for me. I'll lurk from time to time. But, no more arguing. Good luck everyone.

 

[Miss Kitty]

I can't believe I am arguing about a real estate bubble with all the tragedy unfolding in New Orleans, Miss and Ala. Sorry.

That's it for me. I'll lurk from time to time. But, no more arguing. Good luck everyone.

You don't need to argue skier...just asking for info on your sale. BTW...IMHO, life goes on around the country and it needs to, that's what will help this disaster in the long run. Sitting around wringing our hands is fruitless.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Ladies and gents--it's great to have a debate about whether there is a bubble or not and whether or not prices will go up or go down. What I find amazing is that none of you pie in the sky folks will admit that there is a glut in the market--especially in the high end areas of 30A. There may be some home selling in the 300's or 400's in other areas. But, the million dollar plus properties aren't moving, period. Those of you that see the returns of the last 2 years and think that they can continue are not dealing with reality. Too few people can afford the homes at the current prices. Greater than inflation growth would leave only a handful of people in the US capable of affording to buy. And, comparing a market like Orlando where most of the people need the homes to live in to a market like south walton is preposterous. As you said, real estate is local. And the local market in south walton stinks.

I did lower my price a couple of weeks ago. It is now below the most recent prices paid per square foot. It is also beautifully decorated, a stones throw from the beach, has top of the line finishes, is extremely well built and relatively new. Still, not even one call and only a couple of lookers (not capable of affording the home) at an open house. I also walked through a couple of the homes during the parade of homes a couple of weeks ago. One was in Watercolor. The builder had huge numbers of lookers. The house is beautiful and as close to the beach as you can get in Watercolor. It did not sell. In fact, I saw on the MLS that he just lowered his price by $400k. Those builders that don't have lots and lots of financial backing will be lowering prices like crazy to get rid of their inventory.

Sorry guys--it ain't happening in south walton right now. It may come back next spring or later, it may not. Time will tell and I may be a long term owner whether I like it or not.

Addressing the bold statements:
-While I am not a Pie in the Sky person, I have been saying that there are too many listings on the market. The majority are unmotivated sellers like yourself. If they were motivated, they would find a price point that moves. I you don't have people looking at your house, it is overpriced. For the right price, I know many people that would buy your home.

A motivated seller prices his property to sell. Dropping your price below recent sales price, does not mean much of anything if you still don't have lookers. You may take a loss to move your property. A truely motivated seller would do so.

I know plenty of builders, none of which is looking to decrease inventory. If they decrease inventory, they will not be able to build anything, thereby losing their job. Builders are not going to be selling at losses. They cannot operate if they do so.

Skier, I don't disagree with some of your statements. There is much inventory on the market. Buyers, as we have known them, are getting outpriced. (I think the people we call buyers will be changing over the upcoming years.) Many people are speculating and will get hit hard. If you want to dance, you have to pay the band. While there are many speculators, there are also many people who are looking ahead to their retirement. As long as people have some retirement years ahead of them, buying a house in this area for retirement, will probably pay off much more greatly than protecting the money in a Roth IRA.

 

[TooFarTampa]

Well said SJ!! :clap_1:

 

[Rita]

.........
I have been saying that there are too many listings on the market. The majority are unmotivated sellers like yourself. If they were motivated, they would find a price point that moves......

Skier, I don't disagree with some of your statements. There is much inventory on the market. Buyers, as we have known them, are getting outpriced. .... While there are many speculators, there are also many people who are looking ahead to their retirement. As long as people have some retirement years ahead of them, buying a house in this area for retirement, will probably pay off much more greatly than protecting the money in a Roth IRA.

:clap_1: Agreed.
Flippers and speculators are willing to take the risks. Some will lose this time around. So, what else is new? - this happens other places also and will happen again. That just slows the market in that respect, it will make the adjustments needed and that is a good thing.

If Skier was truly interested in selling his property, he would be marketing it the best way he could. My GUESS is that it is an overpriced property which is not in MLS. (Are you a speculator that got caught in this and really couldn't afford the risk you took?)

 

[Paula]

I recommend for those who can do so to have the property and the roth IRA (diversify, diversify, diversify). And, as SJ said, for people who want to move to this area for life style now and in the future (rather than just speculation and flipping), they should be quite fine with their choice. I just don't have enough info to know how the speculators will fare.

 

[Smiling JOe]

WaterColor detached sing. fam. homes for sale (listings)
active listings 79
avg price $2,197,595
avg price per sq ft $849.46
median price $1,875,000
low price $1,250,000
high price $3,895,000


Currently, there are 79 homes actively listed for sale in WaterColor. No wonder Skier has not found any lookers. Really high prices and way too many choices. Keep lowering that price and you will find a buyer.

 

[Bob]

I can't believe I am arguing about a real estate bubble with all the tragedy unfolding in New Orleans, Miss and Ala. Sorry.

That's it for me. I'll lurk from time to time. But, no more arguing. Good luck everyone.

Skier, my comments were meant as an answer to Shelley about here sweeping statements about the whole of Florida. Living in Pensacola does not make you knowledgeable about Orlando and vice versa. A tradgedy elsewhere does not preclude discourse about much of anything the way I see it. In fact, I think it's healthy to not be overwrought about any one thing. Argument brings about knowledge if both sides listen. I understand the top half of SoWal's market is rather dead now. The high end of any market is the first to pause or contract. So be it, but that does not dovetail into Florida/SoWal going straight to hell. SoWal has so many submarkets within it's narrow area proving the statement about real estate and locality.

 

[Miss Kitty]

WaterColor detached sing. fam. homes for sale (listings)
active listings 79
avg price $2,197,595
avg price per sq ft $849.46
median price $1,875,000
low price $1,250,000
high price $3,895,000


Currently, there are 79 homes actively listed for sale in WaterColor. No wonder Skier has not found any lookers. Really high prices and way too many choices. Keep lowering that price and you will find a buyer.

This has been like pulling teeth....is skier's property in WC? This has been like some state secret!