a reality check on "The Bubble" and fear of hurricanes

[ecopal]

I just read a very interesting article in the latest Newsweek magazine by Jane Bryant Quinn. Here is an excerpt: "the boomer bulge is reaching 50 to 60?the age group that controls substantial wealth. Besides city condos and houses, they're looking for second homes, driving up prices for any lot with a water view larger than a puddle." It does go on to say that higher mortage rates could slow things down, however in our area many sales are cash.

It also indicates there is a "rolling bubble" where people leave Miami and go to places such as the Florida panhandle where they can get more for their money. However, our area in South Walton is so unique ( including the highest elevaton beach property in Florida and perhaps higher than most of the eastern Atlantic coast) that even when the prices get high here there is really no where else to go in coastal Florida for such beauty and safety from storm surge.

With the new international airport going in it will open up South Walton to the rest of the world.

Also the fear of hurricanes is overhyped for our area: as long as records have been kept (about 1870) South Walton has never had a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. We do have hurricanes here but they tend to be "milder" due to the pool of "cooler" water between us and the "hot water zone" that runs from west of Key West to almost Texas. Also in South Walton most of our homes are newer and are built to higher hurricane codes.

The worst hurricanes (cat. 4&5) historically hit from Pensacola west to Lousiana (5 cat 4&5 since late 1800s)(six if you count Katrina) and Texas(7 cat 4&5). South Florida has had 9 cat. 4&5 in the same time frame.

Don't you all just love it here!

 

[wetwilly]

I just read a very interesting article in the latest Newsweek magazine by Jane Bryant Quinn. Here is an excerpt: "the boomer bulge is reaching 50 to 60?the age group that controls substantial wealth. Besides city condos and houses, they're looking for second homes, driving up prices for any lot with a water view larger than a puddle." It does go on to say that higher mortage rates could slow things down, however in our area many sales are cash.

It also indicates there is a "rolling bubble" where people leave Miami and go to places such as the Florida panhandle where they can get more for their money. However, our area in South Walton is so unique ( including the highest elevaton beach property in Florida and perhaps higher than most of the eastern Atlantic coast) that even when the prices get high here there is really no where else to go in coastal Florida for such beauty and safety from storm surge.

With the new international airport going in it will open up South Walton to the rest of the world.

Also the fear of hurricanes is overhyped for our area: as long as records have been kept (about 1870) South Walton has never had a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. We do have hurricanes here but they tend to be "milder" due to the pool of "cooler" water between us and the "hot water zone" that runs from west of Key West to almost Texas. Also in South Walton most of our homes are newer and are built to higher hurricane codes.

The worst hurricanes (cat. 4&5) historically hit from Pensacola west to Lousiana (5 cat 4&5 since late 1800s)(six if you count Katrina) and Texas(7 cat 4&5). South Florida has had 9 cat. 4&5 in the same time frame.

Don't you all just love it here!

Yes we do love it in SoWal and I love to hear that this article is out there. BTW (by the way), do you have the article or a link to it?

Thanks.

Wetwilly

 

[ecopal]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9555157/site/newsweek/

 

[wetwilly]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9555157/site/newsweek/

Thanks a million (or two).

 

[Beach Runner]

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Sweet!

 

[ShallowsNole]

Uhhhh...actually, very few areas in the U.S. have experienced a Cat 4 or 5. We've had a few Cat 3 storms.

The rest of the info makes sense, though!

 

[SHELLY]

>>Lereah sees a world of "rolling booms," where people priced out of one city migrate to others?if not Miami, then Charleston, Pensacola or Virginia Beach. <<

Pensacola realtors sitting on a GLUT of $800,000 + homes and condos are saying "where are these people????" Owners of the Portifino Penhouses have been advertising and lowering the asking price and still no buyers.

These folks who are sitting in existing homes in the higher priced areas of South Florida know the market is softening and can afford to wait it out until the prices come down to attractive levels--which hasn't happened yet.

 

[ecopal]

Since records were kept in the mid to late 1800s(depending on area) to 2004 these are the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes to make landfall:

Texas: 7
Louisiana: 5
Southeastern Florida: 4
Southwest Florida: 5
Northeast and Northwest Florida: 0
total Cat. 4&5 including U.S. Atlantic east coast and Gulf: 21

The coast of Northeast Florida is low and prone to storm surge-not to meantion Atlantic tsunamis.

Walton beach areas-primarily on 30A- has land 30 to 50 feet above sea level in many locations.

 

[SHELLY]

Since records were kept in the mid to late 1800s(depending on area) to 2004 these are the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes to make landfall:

Texas: 7
Louisiana: 5
Southeastern Florida: 4
Southwest Florida: 5
Northeast and Northwest Florida: 0
total Cat. 4&5 including U.S. Atlantic east coast and Gulf: 21

The coast of Northeast Florida is low and prone to storm surge-not to meantion Atlantic tsunamis.

Walton beach areas-primarily on 30A- has land 30 to 50 feet above sea level in many locations.

As they say in the stock market biz: "Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance."

People who rely heavily on past performance tend to suffer the most. They get complacent and make dangerous bets that set them up for disaster. Whether it's communities that overbuild too close to dangerous areas or folks who stuff their portfolios with tech stocks or speculative real estate--when the day of reckoning comes it always ends ugly.

 

[ShallowsNole]

What was Ivan classified as?

We have had a number of storms for which the wind speed weakened just before landfall but the storm surge still was the same as a Cat 4. Opal and Ivan come to mind. The storm surge in Grayton and Dune-Allen was deeper, more violent and went farther inland for Opal than it was for Elouise, which was Cat 3. Farther back, my father's generation spoke very reverently of the hurricanes of 1926 and 1936.

All I'm trying to say is that the threat for hurricanes exists. If I absolutely did not want my home to be approached by a Cat 4 hurricane, I'd live several states inland.