a reality check on "The Bubble" and fear of hurricanes

[ecopal]

I agree a cat 4 or 5 could hit here(and I have done all I can do to prepare),but obviously from the data the probability for such a storm is less than in Louisiana, Texas and south Florida.

Storm surge is a danger to low elevation areas. Thats why when we moved here we made sure we built our house in an area on 30a that is over 30ft. above sea level.

Areas like Grayton Beach, Eastern Lake (and most of our coastal lake aeas and also along the bay) would be under water and could look like coastal Mississippi does now if hit by a Cat. 4 or 5.

When we first came here and looked at Pensacola beach and Destin's Holiday Isle we were not interested-in fact we were shocked that anyone would or be allowed to build there. I would doubt that any reasonable person would buy in such low areas after seeing what devastaton storm surge could do. The people who previously did buy there should have read 'Issacs Storm" about the hurricane storm surge that destroyed Galveston in the early 1900s.

Living close to the beach-about 1 to 2 blocks- actually reduces your chance of being hit by a strong spin off tornado because the Gulf actually is not a good spawning "ground" for tornados. So for some storms it would be safer in some areas of 30A than further inland. Most of the houses built here to the new building code enacted 3 years ago would stand up fairly well to most hurricane wind-not storm surge- and that is why the severity level of historic hurricane data is so relevant.

The value of property in low storm surge areas will be diminished if not from the safety concerns but from the cost of coastal flood insurance. Areas near the beach with high elevation will likely eventually "surge" even more in value.

 

[OnMackBayou]

As they say in the stock market biz: "Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance."

So true. I was in The Palm Beach/Jupiter/Stuart area several years ago looking at real estate. I asked the Palm Beach realtor about Andrew in '92. I couldn't remember if her area had any effects from that one. I'll never forget her oh so haughty answer, "We don't get hurricanes here." She said it in a disgusting way as if to imply hurricanes were not allowed in that area.

I often wondered about her and if the two storms that hit there last year changed her mind.

This year I had a friend from Jacksonville say their area was somehow topographically protected from storms. I wonder if Tammy at all shook his confidence. Probably not.

 

[SHELLY]

I asked the Palm Beach realtor about Andrew in '92. I couldn't remember if her area had any effects from that one. I'll never forget her oh so haughty answer, "We don't get hurricanes here." She said it in a disgusting way as if to imply hurricanes were not allowed in that area.

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." -- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." -- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.

"No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris." -- Orville Wright.

"Living close to the beach-about 1 to 2 blocks- actually reduces your chance of being hit by a strong spin off tornado because the Gulf actually is not a good spawning "ground" for tornados. So for some storms it would be safer in some areas of 30A than further inland. Most of the houses built here to the new building code enacted 3 years ago would stand up fairly well to most hurricane wind-not storm surge- and that is why the severity level of historic hurricane data is so relevant." -- Ecopal

 

[OnMackBayou]

Aren't we all just hoping for that 20 year window where nothing really bad happens?

 

[SHELLY]

Aren't we all just hoping for that 20 year window where nothing really bad happens?

Hoping for it is one thing....using it in a sales pitch is quite another.

 

[ecopal]

Shelly,
I am sorry I wrote something you could not understand, but that does not give you the right to belittle it. I agree I wrote it a bit clumsily but would have been glad to clarify it for you.

I have always enjoyed reading your input and am greatly disappointed in your arrogant response. You appear to be quite well informed in some areas but it is obvious that neither meteorology or statistical probability are among them.

 

[SHELLY]

>>but it is obvious that neither meteorology or statistical probability are among them.<<

OK I'll bite.....what's the standard deviation of a hurricane (which will have any type of damaging impact) hitting the 30A area in any given year?

 

[Bob]

>>but it is obvious that neither meteorology or statistical probability are among them.<<

OK I'll bite.....what's the standard deviation of a hurricane (which will have any type of damaging impact) hitting the 30A area in any given year?

answer: after taking a rather long hit off the bong, "It's whatever you want it to be mannnnnnn."

 

[bsmart]

This year I had a friend from Jacksonville say their area was somehow topographically protected from storms. I wonder if Tammy at all shook his confidence. Probably not.

A lot of people say this about the Georgia coast also, because the GA coast is somewhat enclaved by the coasts FL and SC. However, there is some interesting research floating around out there, which indicates that the GA coast was hammered by three strong storms in the mid to late 19th century. At least one of these storms is thought to have been a Cat 5, because a soil core taken several miles inland, in present day Long County, GA shows that there is a layer of paleosand that was churned up from the ocean floor and deposited on the site the core was taken by means of a massive storm surge.

 

[bsmart]

Living close to the beach-about 1 to 2 blocks- actually reduces your chance of being hit by a strong spin off tornado because the Gulf actually is not a good spawning "ground" for tornados.

That sounds correct because the tornadoes form because of friction--to borrow this example from someone its like if you take a pencil and roll it on a solid surface with your hand, then imagine something tilting that spinning motion upwards--this is done by a thunderstorm updraft or sometimes by topographical features (possibly the reason why north GA saw 20+ tornadoes when Katrina came through, most of which occurred in Northeast GA, the foothills). So, this means that the areas most vulnerable to tropical spawned tornadoes are those areas well inland from where the rainbands come ashore, as this is where the greatest friction is. But it all depends on the angle the storm is moving. If you have a thunderstorm which is associated with a tropical entity come ashore out in say Bay or Gulf County and it is moving west/northwestward, it could get that frictional spin going with it and drop a tornado over coastal Walton County in theory.