Alys Beach growth

[ASH]

Interesting thread. Great comments. I have 14 years of code history under my belt personally from product development and marketing of hurricane impact windows and doors at a major manufacturer to now selling these same in the Florida panhandle for the past four years.

Florida state building code is based on a statistical analysis of how large of a hurricane can an area of the state expect to receive within a limited amount of time. Usually based on the life of a 30 year mortgage. Flooding is typically based on a 100 year timeline.

The code requirements for this area are based on no more than a category 3 storm hitting us and there is quite a pile of history to back that from ocean currents to how rare it is to get a storm to get past Cuba and then hook back into our area without heading to Galveston.

There has to be some guesswork involved and you have to draw a line somewhere. It is not reasonable to expect the entire coast of Florida to build to resist a Katrina or Andrew. The cost would be prohibitively high for the low risk of the event. Of course you are not prevented from building above code. Google "Fortified For Safer Living" and see what Alys has been aspiring to do.
Finding all the products that can meet these higher code levels creates challenges. Example from my industry would be windows built to withstand Miami hurricanes are not using insulated glass which I believe is a must in the panhandle, especially on a chilly 31 degree day like this morning. If you have single glass, you probably have water running down the insides this morning. Right?

 

[Chickpea]

Interesting thread. Great comments. I have 14 years of code history under my belt personally from product development and marketing of hurricane impact windows and doors at a major manufacturer to now selling these same in the Florida panhandle for the past four years.

Florida state building code is based on a statistical analysis of how large of a hurricane can an area of the state expect to receive within a limited amount of time. Usually based on the life of a 30 year mortgage. Flooding is typically based on a 100 year timeline.

The code requirements for this area are based on no more than a category 3 storm hitting us and there is quite a pile of history to back that from ocean currents to how rare it is to get a storm to get past Cuba and then hook back into our area without heading to Galveston.

There has to be some guesswork involved and you have to draw a line somewhere. It is not reasonable to expect the entire coast of Florida to build to resist a Katrina or Andrew. The cost would be prohibitively high for the low risk of the event. Of course you are not prevented from building above code. Google "Fortified For Safer Living" and see what Alys has been aspiring to do.
Finding all the products that can meet these higher code levels creates challenges. Example from my industry would be windows built to withstand Miami hurricanes are not using insulated glass which I believe is a must in the panhandle, especially on a chilly 31 degree day like this morning. If you have single glass, you probably have water running down the insides this morning. Right?

After Hurricane Andrew in '92, I recall how drastically the Dade County Building Codes changed - all professionals started off threatening, kicking and screaming - architects, engineers, door and window manufacturers, etc... all saying that obtaining NOA's (notice of approvals) would be impossible, cost prohibitive, etc. Now, more than 17 years later, construction in Miami is infinitely more responsible - and guess what - everyone adapted - they had to! There was no other choice.

Whether one builds with wood or with masonry, in today's climate there SHOULD be very strict regulations governing construction along the coast.

Thanks

 

[homeboy]

I would really like to see some stats for the past 3 years from a realtor that shows sales at Alys versus places like Watercolor, Watersound and Rosemary. It appears that Alys is a total bust based on sales over the past three years compared to these other areas. but I do not have access to the realtors sales database.

Am I wrong or have sales been almost non existent?

 

[RiverOtter]

I thought it was for folks that make good money and like a quality product. None of them seem to have much guilt as far as I can tell. They just seem a bit burnt out on poor quality stick built florida cottage.

Well said Bobby.

 

[Kurt]

I would really like to see some stats for the past 3 years from a realtor that shows sales at Alys versus places like Watercolor, Watersound and Rosemary. It appears that Alys is a total bust based on sales over the past three years compared to these other areas. but I do not have access to the realtors sales database.

Am I wrong or have sales been almost non existent?

2009 was their best year yet - it is still relatively small and we had a little bit of a bubble burst around here.

I don't think you need to compare 1,000 homes in WaterColor to a couple of dozen in Alys Beach.

 

[Paula]

FYI, Alys Beach was featured in Coastal Living this month. It was about Moroccan cooking class in the Calyza Pool area. Nice article. We'll be going to dinner at Calyza restaurant on Easter again this year, just as we did last year. It was quite special and we're making it a tradition.

 

[JUL]

the only thing i don't like about alys beach are the palm trees. everything else is so right on!

 

[homeboy]

2009 was their best year yet - it is still relatively small and we had a little bit of a bubble burst around here.

I don't think you need to compare 1,000 homes in WaterColor to a couple of dozen in Alys Beach.

I am not a realtor and do not have access to sales data. However, I have talked with the realtors at Alys, Watercolor, Rosemary, and Watersound. In addition, I have read through many posts by realtors on this site.

You are clearly not a realtor either and do not have access to the facts.

According to my information, the best year by far in Alys was 2005, not 2009 as you state above. I was also told when looking in Alys that there will be over 800 units in the development which is only about 20 percent smaller than Watercolor. Also, there are not 1000 HOMES in Watercolor. That may be total planned units (like the 800 in Alys) but there are not anywhere close to 1000 homes today. Your info is way off. Comparing 800 potential units to 1000 potential units is not an unrealistic comparison when looking at sales. Are you trying to say that they would not 200, 300 or more units in one year at Alys if the demand was there. Bottom line, demand for Alys doesn't even compare with the demand in Watercolor, or Watersound or Rosemary for that matter. The place is too "unique" and overpriced at current levels. That is why Alys doesn't sell like these other developments.

Based on postings related to Watercolor on this site, there were 50 plus transactions in the development in 2008 and 2009 compared to only a handful in Alys (maybe a realtor can tell us exactly how many each year). So, with 800 potential units and only and handful of sales in 08 and 09, I would say that is a total bust. Not the dramatic year described by you. And, definitely not a record year as described by you (look at 2005 for the record year). I bet that there were more homes and lots sold in Watercolor by the developer (not resales) in the location behind Publix in 2009 (more than a mile from the beach amenities) than were sold by the developer in Alys in 2008 AND 2009 combined.

NOTE --I am not a realtor and have no access to actual data on sales. My info is based on talking with realtors at Alys and Watercolor and review of postings by realtors on this site. It does not appear that Kurt is a realtor or has access to data either because I am certain that 2009 was NOT the record year at Alys.

It would be great if a real estate agent would post some real data on sales to support or refute Kurts and my information above.

 

[Kurt]

It does not appear that Kurt is a realtor or has access to data either because I am certain that 2009 was NOT the record year at Alys.

It would be great if a real estate agent would post some real data on sales to support or refute Kurts and my information above.

True - I am not a realtor, but i do have access to a few facts. The information I stated was what I was told this by several people last year and I have no reason to doubt it, nor guarantee it. Seems like you are very, very interested so dig away and let us know what you find.

As I recall there were about 1,100 units planned for WaterColor. I don't know how many have been completed but it seems like it would be close, but for all I know it could be half that at the moment.

My point is that however many units currently completed in WaterColor, it is such a greater number than those completed in Alys Beach that comparing the 2 problematic at best, and a waste of time at worst.

Alys Beach is a victim of bad timing, which as far as I can tell is the development's only real problem, and a problem everyone has to some extent. If the bubble hadn't burst it, would be at least half built out by now and one of the hottest products in the world in my opinion. It may still be that one day. Alys Beach may not appeal to everyone but the product and planning is unmatched. Only time will tell and it will be interesting to look back 20, 50, 100 years from now.

As an aside, I find it interesting that we get Alys Beach naysayers on this forum in oddly regular intervals with oddly similar-sounding posts. Is Alys Beach an attractive target for some reason?

 

[30ashopper]

True - I am not a realtor, but i do have access to a few facts. The information I stated was what I was told this by several people last year and I have no reason to doubt it, nor guarantee it. Seems like you are very very interested so dig away and let us know what you find.

As I recall there were about 1,100 units planned for WaterColor. I don't know how many have been completed but it seems like it would be close, but for all I know it could be half that at the moment.

My point is that however many homes are currently completed in WaterColor, it is such a greater number than those completed in Alys Beach that comparing the 2 problematic at best, and a waste of time at worst.

Alys Beach is a victim of bad timing, which as far as Ii can tell is the development's only real problem, a problem everyone has to some extent. If the bubble hadn't burst it would be at least half built out by now and one of the hottest products in the world in my opinion. It may still be that one day. Alys Beach may not appeal to everyone but the product and planning is unmatched. Only time will tell and it will be interesting to look back 20, 50, 100 years from now.

As an aside, I find it interesting that we get Alys Beach naysayers on this forum in oddly periodic intervals with oddly similar-sounding posts.

Bad timing and now, a much higher price point compared to surrounding communities. Watercolor seems to have adjusted to the new normal quicker - I give Joe credit for the ability to recognize what was going on. Plus Watercolor is in a more developed area, closer to schools, shops, and seaside, all of which probably helps.

I think Alys is stuck in their situation, the cost of the homes there is so high, they have no choice but to wait it out and see if buyers with enough capital return to the market. If the developers can afford to carry the place they'll be fine, it'll just take a lot of time for it to fill in.

Looking at county records, they had 4 lot sales and one existing sale for 2009. That's not bad considering in 2008 they bought back 4 lots!