It's pretty early to call it, but this non-system does in fact have many forecasters' attention ... from this morning's
www.crownweather.com tropical discussion:
Now to talk about the system that may get all of the headlines over the next 7 to 10 days and beyond. I am closely monitoring a tropical disturbance that is located over the Windward Islands this morning. This system has been bringing squally weather to these areas and this squally weather will continue today. This disturbance is forecast to track westward over the next few days and I think it stands a good chance of developing into Tropical Storm Matthew by the end of this week or at the very latest this weekend when it is located in the western Caribbean.
The global forecast models continue to differ wildly on how this system will develop and where it will eventually track. The latest GFS model forecasts a track that first takes it into Central America this weekend and then forecasts it to turn northeastward early next week and eventually track over Cuba and the Bahamas missing Florida. I?m pretty skeptical with this type of track as this is the type of track you see in late October. I think the GFS model may be overdoing the strength of the trough and I think in the end you will see a track further west due to a stronger ridge of high pressure. Also, there is a couple of other reasons to find the GFS model suspect, the first is that the energy associated with this system is currently located around 11 North Latitude and will stay at about that latitude over the next few days. The second is that the model consensus moves the trough of low pressure over the eastern United States to near 80 West Longitude by early next week which is either due north or slightly northwest of the western Caribbean disturbance which would cause a northward track. Where the disturbance develops exactly in the Caribbean highly dictates where it?ll go, but I favor a more northward or northwestward track rather than the northeast track forecast by the GFS model.
Looking at the other model guidance, the Canadian model forecasts development of this system in the southwest Caribbean late this week and forecasts it to track into Central America this weekend and then slowly meander its way up to the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week. Ultimately, the Canadian model pulls this system northward into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week and forecasts it to be located in the central Gulf of Mexico by next Thursday.
The European model is forecasting development in the southwest Caribbean late this week and forecasts this system to turn northwestward missing Central America this weekend. By next week, the European model forecasts this system to slow way down in the northwestern Caribbean during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday before being pulled northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next Thursday. Looking at the upper air pattern for 10 days out forecast by the European model, it shows a track that would put the west coast of Florida at risk from this system.
Now, what should we take away from this?? As of this morning, we are already seeing convection increasing across the Windward Islands and I think you will see slow development until it gets west of 75 West Longitude late this week. The model guidance as a whole now are trending towards faster development late this week in the southwestern Caribbean and I have every reason to believe this given the favorable environmental conditions and very warm ocean waters. At some point, this system will be pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico given the overall weather pattern and I think you will see this happen around the middle part of next week. In addition, based on the overall pattern, areas from New Orleans and points east should be most concerned with this system due to the weakness forecast over the eastern United States.
I realize that this system will be causing a lot of concern over the coming days. I want you to come away from this discussion informed, but not alarmed. We are talking about a system that hasn?t even formed yet. So, for now, we should just monitor this potential system closely and look for model trends and consistency in the model guidance. Once this system develops into a tropical cyclone, we should be able to get a much better idea on where it may track. So, for now, it is best to be informed and prepared and I will be keeping you all updated on the latest regarding this potential system.
