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Buckhead Rick

Beach Lover
Feb 15, 2005
140
5
Current Barron's mag. has three interesting articles. One by a Yale prof who says the R/E bubble is nationwide and we could see a drop of 50%, latter he says it could be only 2.6%-that's why he is at Yale and I'm not, he covers all bases.
Two, Alan Albelson writes that he feels all the popular mags are right this time in calling for a bubble burst, though he admits they have never been before.
Last, Ryan Beck & co. stock analyst boosts her target price on JOE to $92, because of the projected 80% population increase in the next 10 years. Maybe they'll all be right, I sure do not know.
 

beachmouse

Beach Fanatic
Dec 5, 2004
3,504
741
Bluewater Bay, FL
A short article from the National Review:

http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlow200506201040.asp

The Housing Bears Are Wrong Again

"None of this is to argue that low mortgage rates haven?t been a plus in the housing picture. Of course they have. But the imbalance between excess demand over limited supply, resulting from tax factors and land-use restrictions, has made home buying even more profitable in recent years than has been the case in the past. "

As for South Walton, I can see some moderate/modest price drops in the next year or two. But in the end, the amount of land south of the bay is pretty limited, as is the total number of allowed units.

It's Panama City Beach that's in trouble. Major surplus and not scarcity situation coming up when those new buildings start coming online in 2006/07. How many people who would have bought in SoWal end up buying foreclosed condos in PCB instead because it's cheap? In theory, you're probably talking two very different groups of buyers, but when something starts looking dirt cheap compared to SoWal prices, it's tempting to buy low if you're willing to wait for ten years for PCB to redevelop itself and for the market to turn around.
 

Philip_Atlanta

Beach Lover
Mar 1, 2005
140
1
www.rosemaryrental.com
thumper said:
At the risk of over stepping my bounds as a new forum member, I'm going to call this one as I see it:

When Skier was asked some intelligent rebuttal questions in recents threads, asking him to elaborate, he responded with sarcasm and avoided the questions completely. Until then he was helping drive an interesting debate, but he dropped the ball once he was challenged directly. I stopped reading his posts with interest after that, I'm afraid. Started to sound like someone who is baiting for pointless debate.

Skier, we get your point. Yes, there are definitely some over inflated properties out there. Some. Humans are greedy, it's guaranteed to happen in a market like this. I'm glad you are providing food for thought, but please, if you want to retain credibility, have the courtesy to respond to those who have different opinions without resorting to sarcasm.

Respect, Thumper

I agree. I LIKE to see a counter-point and certainly those predicting a bubble burst are in abundance. However; sarcasm lessens an argument significantly.

Regarding the two articles Skier put out, they seem to correlate crashes and market indicators of stock markets in comparison to a real estate market. Apples and oranges in my opinion. The article on the 20's Miami market was quite interesting and will prode me to reasearch that market some more to see if there are some lessons - thanks for the heads up, Skier.
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
skier said:
Florida Real Estate Bubble :bang:

The 1920?s, in America, were a time of great prosperity. Skilled and educated working Americans had jobs providing numerous fringe benefits, paid vacations and pensions. In addition, automobiles were becoming commonplace for the wealthy and middle class allowing cross country travel. This good fortune set the stage for the Florida real estate bubble.

Starting in 1920, many Americans became enamored by the materialistic and prosperous lifestyle of the time. During this time, the stock market was moving forward at an extremely fast pace. Many investors were becoming quite wealthy. Florida became a hot spot for these newly rich people, who didn?t enjoy the cold. Many whole families took vacations to Florida. It was at this point that tourism started booming and land prices were skyrocketing. Many astute investors took notice and started buying Florida real estate. The population in Florida was growing exponentially and housing couldn?t meet the demand. Florida became the ?playground of the rich and famous?. Illegal casinos and drinking parlors became widespread in Miami.

At this point, almost anybody could invest in Florida, even without much money. Credit was plentiful and soon everybody in Florida was either a real estate investor or a real estate agent. In 1922, the Miami Herald became the heaviest newspaper in the world as a result of its humongous real estate advertisements. People in the North heard about the real estate prices ?doubling and tripling?, causing a snowball effect. Capital was rapidly pumped into the real estate market. Whole golf communities were developed, such as Temple Terrace. Resorts and retirement communities were developed almost overnight. Mansions were sprawling in every area, as were swimming pools. As always, waterfront property was the most desirable. Florida was seen as a veritable Utopia.

Real estate prices quadrupled in less than one year. An elderly man invested $1,700 in property and by 1925 the property was worth over $300,000! It seemed you could do no wrong by just buying any property in Florida and become a millionaire. By 1925, real estate prices had become so exorbitant that buying land wasn?t affordable any longer. New investors failed to arrive and old investors started to sell. Panic arrived, as it always does, and the real estate market crashed. Prices kept moving downwards as heavily indebted investors tried to sell to avoid bankruptcy. In most cases, no buyers arrived, and the investors were bankrupt from the enormous mortgages.

To make matters even worse, a highly destructive hurricane ravaged South Florida in September 1926. The 125 mile an hour winds eventually turned Palm Beach County into swamp lands. After the storm, a huge tidal wave crashed upon the towns of Belle Glade and Moore Haven. Due to these horrible turn of events, over 13,000 homes were destroyed and 415 people died. Additionally, the arrival of the Mediterranean fruit fly obliterated the large citrus industry. It took years for Florida to fully recover, even through the highly prosperous time from 1925 to 1929. Florida was barely affected in the stock market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression, because of its poor financial state from the start.

Market crashes always occur in the same manner. Regardless of the market, the same simple psychological underpinnings are always at work. People who are caught up in a bubble never look back for historical examples. For this folly, they become paupers.

?Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.?


Are these your words, Skier? If not, please quote your source and author.
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
I will remind everyone, that during this country's economic downturn following Sept 11, 2001, this area's businesses were booming. We are not the norm. We are the exception. Sure, there is some cause for caution, and buyers should rely on trustworthy folks who know this market. We have come to the point where not every listing is a bargain. However, there are plenty of bargains available right now.
 

GVM

Beach Lover
Dec 25, 2004
109
0
Joe:
Send us to a few MLS listings that you consider bargains, unless, of course, you're bidding for them! I would genuinely appreciate your opinion. I expect, indeed, there are a few bargains...but there's a lot of junk...overpriced junk...on the market currently.
I've been very fortunate with South Walton real estate transactions in the past 24 months...but I declared myself out of the game 4 or 5 months ago. Maybe too soon. Whether or not the bubble bursts will be determined by the strength of the borrowers. It's the loosey-goosey lending practices (which I took full advantage of) that have me concerned. What percentage of the borrowers won't be able to 'tote the note' in the face of the current 'flattening' of the market, plus the approaching time limits for build out in some developments. There are a gah-zillion lots currently in South Walton MLS between $400,000 and $550,000. The folks holding 3, 4, 5 or 6 of those lots might be feeling a little queasy. Also, I'm skeptical that the market for vacation rentals will be able to absorb the available inventory over the next couple of years. After all, lots of folks got in the game with the notion that rentals are assured. We shall see.
 

phdphay

Beach Fanatic
Mar 7, 2005
297
0
GVM said:
Joe:
Send us to a few MLS listings that you consider bargains, unless, of course, you're bidding for them! I would genuinely appreciate your opinion. I expect, indeed, there are a few bargains...but there's a lot of junk...overpriced junk...on the market currently.
I've been very fortunate with South Walton real estate transactions in the past 24 months...but I declared myself out of the game 4 or 5 months ago. Maybe too soon. Whether or not the bubble bursts will be determined by the strength of the borrowers. It's the loosey-goosey lending practices (which I took full advantage of) that have me concerned. What percentage of the borrowers won't be able to 'tote the note' in the face of the current 'flattening' of the market, plus the approaching time limits for build out in some developments. There are a gah-zillion lots currently in South Walton MLS between $400,000 and $550,000. The folks holding 3, 4, 5 or 6 of those lots might be feeling a little queasy. Also, I'm skeptical that the market for vacation rentals will be able to absorb the available inventory over the next couple of years. After all, lots of folks got in the game with the notion that rentals are assured. We shall see.
So, neighbor, does that mean we shouldn't raise our rental prices for next summer? Our place got rented up so fast that we can hardly even use it. So we were considering increasing our rental rates. I mean, if it rents at x dollars per week and fills up in a week, why not tack on another 10-20%?

Things *will* slow down. Those people who have bought recently have discovered that construction costs are too high for them to have any confidence that they can get their money out. I think you know who I'm talking about.
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
phdphay said:
So, neighbor, does that mean we shouldn't raise our rental prices for next summer? Our place got rented up so fast that we can hardly even use it. So we were considering increasing our rental rates. I mean, if it rents at x dollars per week and fills up in a week, why not tack on another 10-20%?
It is all about supply and demand. Remember, we are seeing numerous people, whom we have not seen before, vacationing in this area. These folks are have been vacationing in other Florida areas that were trambled by the Hurricanes of '04, especially the areas between Destin and AL. When those places are rebuilt, we may lose those folks. However, they may find this area much more attractive, and you may keep the renters for life. It is just something to consider.
 

skier

Beach Lover
Mar 7, 2005
116
0
Smiling JOe said:
Are these your words, Skier? If not, please quote your source and author.

Joe,

Those were not my words. Sorry for being unclear on that point. Unfortunately, the author of this article I found on the net did not put his or her name on the site or the article. It did not appear to be copyrighted so I simply did a cut and paste of the article.
 
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