Coastal Resort Mrket - How did we get here?

[coastal-edge]

I've read so many RE reports from folks who claim to know where RE is heading; I like to read their take on RE during the "bubble years" of 2004-05 and then during the "it's the bottom" years of 2006-07 before I determine their credibility of projecting the value of RE going forward. It's just too easy to look back and say, "this is what happened" -- that's all.

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Well, it should be hindsight is 20/20, but it's not for everyone. Now, I too personally see the whole picture quite clearly, but I didn't see it entirely until it hit me in the face like many others in 2005. I was hired by some of the most successful companies in the resort industry to complie reports to substantiate decisions that had already been made before they got to me. It was my job to find the "good news" and help to fend off the repurcusions of what was happening with the flippers.

I knew that things were getting bad when I saw properties being flipped for excesses of 5-7 times. Building permits were SKY HIGH and the PCB and Defuniak Springs planning commissions had stacks of requests dozens deep.

So, did I forecast this? Not to the public. Did I see the huge national and international impact prior to Katrina? No. But when Katrina hit and I saw the sell-off, well, hind-sight became 20/20. I did provide a private study that provided the basis to stop plans for construction of several very large, very prominent developments from going further. If they had continued, it would have been disasterous. I know you'd like to ask which ones, but let's just say they were in Bay County.

I think that most analysts would agree that when you look at the graphs, charts, etc that take into consideration the price of oil, political stability/National events and the stock market, you can see definite patterns. But I want to be clear, I'm not a FINANCIAL ANALYST. I include numerous financial factors for those experts to consider.

I'm a Mrket Analyst or Market Intelligence Analyst. I focus on research, demographic statistics, Boomer research, technology jobs, employment in general, net migration into the area, Airport Case studies, as well as sector or area specific (down to number of feet/lots from the ocean) real estate sales stats.

I hope this sheds some light. I'll try and find something of interest to post, but I'd prefer not to be "tried and hung" until then. k?

Look forward to gaining the respect of the forum. I'll work on that sincerely.
Suzette

 

[coastal-edge]

If you're looking for a job, there's a Help Wanted area of SoWal.com.

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[SHELLY]

It was my job to find the "good news" and help to fend off the repurcusions of what was happening with the flippers.

OK, thanks, I understand now. I imagine your stuff published around the bubble pretty much contained the same upbeat forecasts as others I've read.



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[coastal-edge]

OK, thanks, I understand now. I imagine your stuff published around the bubble pretty much contained the same upbeat forecasts as others I've read.



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I knew I was setting myself up when I made that statement, but if I responded like many, I wouldn't be honest. So, calling me, or anyone out for not knowing what was "blowing" back then, I'm sure happens a LOT, on this, and all forums.

If you read my reports, (and I plan on sending or posting SEVERAL, you would see that my intentions were always to look at the coastal areas for the LONG-TERM benefits.

When I compiled reports for developments, they contained the good and the bad. To "trash" this, or any other beautiful coastal community, or saying that in the LONG-TERM it would be anything short of a great opportunity, wouldn't be accurate either. It was NOT my job to entice FLIPPERS. Just the opposite, all developments need REAL buyers, REAL end-users. I described who those could be and where they might come from. REAL buyers, not flippers.

So the GOOD NEWS that I spoke of in my blog, is that I believe (and I'm not alone) that the coast, specifically this area, will come back. Even the naysayers agree on that.

Do you, or I, or anyone else on this forum know for sure when? I guess not. But if you do not believe it will, then why are we posting here? Why be involved in a community that believes in what it has?

I'm on this forum to give input, I know you have been posting for years, and I appreciate your dedication.

I'm new to posting here, but I've been reading this blog since about the same time you began posting. I just listened.

I'll continue to introduce myself and hope not to ruffle any feathers. Hope we can agree on one thing, this area is worth discussing.
Suzette

 

[coastal-edge]

Tried to PM you but got this message:

1. SHELLY has exceeded their stored private messages quota and cannot accept further messages until they clear some space.

Looking for an email address to send you a CMS. You can PM me, I've got lots of space.

 

[Matt J]

OK, thanks, I understand now. I imagine your stuff published around the bubble pretty much contained the same upbeat forecasts as others I've read.



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You clearly haven't seen the new NAR video with the perky woman in the hideous dress saying your favorite line...

Now's the time to buy!

 

[SHELLY]

You clearly haven't seen the new NAR video with the perky woman in the hideous dress saying your favorite line...

Now's the time to buy!

...isn't that the same one they've been using since 2004?

..and who can forget this ditty from 2006: Newspaper Ad Says It's a Great Time to Buy

WITH THE MARKET CORRECTION
NEARING AN END, HOME PRICES
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN.

Research indicates that home prices will not
go any lower. While certain local markets
may see limited price declines, the national
picture remains bright. Pending home sales
were up 4.3% in August, an early indication
that buyers are returning to the market.

The national median home price will rise
1.6% in 2006 and prices are expected to
rise again in the first quarter of 2007. As
prices begin to rise again buyers who do
not act now could be making a costly
mistake.

I quite enjoy the new commercial where they kick themselves in the arse...but they fail to warn about the possibility of a brain concussion.

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[coastal-edge]

...I quite enjoy the new commercial where they kick themselves in the arse...but they fail to warn about the possibility of a brain concussion.
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Good Morning. I had a look at some of your photographs on your website and they paint a pretty bright picture of life at the beach. Beautiful.

I really didn't see any negative. Great perspectives. You truly do capture what living at the beach is.

 

[Matt J]

Good Morning. I had a look at some of your photographs on your website and they paint a pretty bright picture of life at the beach. Beautiful.

I really didn't see any negative. Great perspectives. You truly do capture what living at the beach is.

SHELLY has a website?

 

[ASH]

Oh, this is about to get good.



Going into lurk mode now.