Correction: Panhandle real estate sell off just starting

[30ashopper]

However, having said all that, although I expect real estate values to resume a normalized annual appreciation rate of 7-9 % per year, after the next 12-18 month downturn, which I would ballpark at roughly 15-25% depending on the kind of property and location.

He was right to predict a major decline, but even his dower predictions were off - we're 30 months out from his original prediction and we've seen declines of 30%-50%.

Has anybody else noticed those lots in Watersound Beach that are selling at 50% discount from 2005, and 10% discount from 2003? That really caught my eye, I was wondering when the Joe properties would start to correct, it's finally happening.

An interersting historical perspective for sure. The doomers sure got beat up a lot back then.

 

[AAbsolute]

I bought a property in Watersound Beach in '05 for 30% less than the original purchaser bought it from JOE for 5 months earlier. I thought for sure he was crazy. He actually brought about 300,000 to the closing just to sell it. In his particular case I can understand it now. I think he had some real good capital gains that year and saw the 5 year outlook.

 

[fisher]

He was right to predict a major decline, but even his dower predictions were off - we're 30 months out from his original prediction and we've seen declines of 30%-50%.

Has anybody else noticed those lots in Watersound Beach that are selling at 50% discount from 2005, and 10% discount from 2003? That really caught my eye, I was wondering when the Joe properties would start to correct, it's finally happening.

An interersting historical perspective for sure. The doomers sure got beat up a lot back then.

Check out the sales history on this Watersound property.

Five sales with the latest being about 40% below the original purchase price from Joe in 2003 after being up over 100% at one time.

http://64.234.218.210/cgi-bin/walton_display.cgi?KEY=20-3S-18-16012-000-0020&

Here is one from Watercolor showing similar pattern with four sales. Price off 70% from peak and 25% off original 2003 price.

http://64.234.218.210/cgi-bin/walton_display.cgi?KEY=14-3S-19-25400-000-0430

 

[AAbsolute]

Check out the sales history on this Watersound property.

Five sales with the latest being about 40% below the original purchase price from Joe in 2003 after being up over 100% at one time.

http://64.234.218.210/cgi-bin/walton_display.cgi?KEY=20-3S-18-16012-000-0020&

Here is one from Watercolor showing similar pattern with four sales. Price off 70% from peak and 25% off original 2003 price.

http://64.234.218.210/cgi-bin/walton_display.cgi?KEY=14-3S-19-25400-000-0430

I understand the Watercolor where Wachovia took possession through deed process, but who is this JMB LLC in Watersound?

Did you notice these lots placement in their neighborhoods? I know of a lot on the same street in Watersound that Trustmark is controlling that will sell for 4 times the Black to JMB lot. It's all about location.

 

[30ashopper]

I understand the Watercolor where Wachovia took possession through deed process, but who is this JMB LLC in Watersound?

Did you notice these lots placement in their neighborhoods? I know of a lot on the same street in Watersound that Trustmark is controlling that will sell for 4 times the Black to JMB lot. It's all about location.

Watercolor does seem to be somewhat of an enigma. If you're already built out, pirces seem to be holding pretty well right now. Lot prices though are getting pummeled. I wonder if it's comps - I haven't seen any foreclosed build outs sell, but there are a few foreclosed lots that have closed at discount.

For build outs, looks like 1.5 - 2 mil for the lower area near seaside, 1.0 - 1.2 mil for the northern part, and over on the east side 700K - 900K are the current comps. I'd bet in two years those numbers will have shifted down another 20%-30%. I doesn't look like homes have corrected much (yet).

 

[30ashopper]

Although, price/sq ft in 2003 looks to be around 320, with 2005 highs around 450-500? Maybe it has corrected somewhat, current homes looks to be going for around 320-420.

 

[Little Fish]

Anyone know what risk owners face if they purchase a WS homesite below the original sale price and do not build on time?

Little Fish

 

[30ashopper]

There's a thread right below this one discussing Joe build out extensions - you might dig through that.

Build-out extensions - SoWal Beaches Forum

 

[AAbsolute]

Anyone know what risk owners face if they purchase a WS homesite below the original sale price and do not build on time?

Little Fish

That was why I was so surprised at the time I bought the one for 30% below its original sales price. I said to myself, this Owner should be able to just not build it out and JOE will buy it back for its original sales price. I asked JOE to buy it back for the original purchase price from me, but they declined.

It's a pretty interesting legal theory, and might be one for a test case.

 

[robertsondavies]

That was my way of being polite, calling for a 25% decline - at the time - i was being sensitive to those close to me that were not selling at the time - I also suspected that markets overshoot both ways. my suspicions were more in the 50% range, thats why i called for folks to short JOE - at the time JOE was in the mid 60's.

What I can share with the group is that I just bot a lot a few weeks back with smiling joe's able assistance in non-pud part of Seacrest Beach , that was way way below any REO or foreclosure then availabe in the area. My wife and I absolutely have fell in love with South Walton since first visiting in 1998. Our first home we had bilt in Seagrove Beach in 1999, we sold in early 2005, and so part of my rant at that time, was just trying to prove myself corrrect. Vanity? sure, but the decision to sell was emotional since we loved the area so much - I just felt like the valuations were ridiculous at that point in early 2005 - a feeding frenzy really.

I have no crystal ball, but having travelled around the country extensively to beach locales and paid attention to prices everywhere I go, there is NO BETTER DEAL that makes sense for us than SOWal at current prices.

My other strong convictions right now are as follows:
1. Long US Dollar vs. Euro - vehicle is symbol " DRR"

bot 5 new stocks today (August 19th).. they are:
TLM - Talisman Resc.
CVP - Centerplate Inc.
RF- Regions Financial
GA- Giant Interactive
TAST- Carrolls Restaurant Grp.

Your results may vary.

He was right to predict a major decline, but even his dower predictions were off - we're 30 months out from his original prediction and we've seen declines of 30%-50%.

Has anybody else noticed those lots in Watersound Beach that are selling at 50% discount from 2005, and 10% discount from 2003? That really caught my eye, I was wondering when the Joe properties would start to correct, it's finally happening.

An interersting historical perspective for sure. The doomers sure got beat up a lot back then.