Dismal Outlook

[Smiling JOe]

Shelly, I completely agree with you and understand that the type of employment we have here does not make for the most stable form of economy. However, I'm confused by the numbers you posted above.

Per these numbers, the total number of workers for all sectors increased by 7770 jobs, and the total number of the top 5 of the only 7 sectors to post an increase was 2663. The most added jobs that #'s 6 & 7 on the list could be 888 (tying with # 5, Traveler Accomodations), leaving a total gain of 3551 new jobs, 4219 jobs short of the 7770. That's not taking into account the 50 industries reporting a loss.

I'm not trying to challenge, but I do find these types of numbers interesting and am curious what I missed.

Thanks,

I also noticed a discrepancy in the numbers. In particular, the message states, "The employment growth in the Full-service restaurants industry makes up 9.9 percent of the growth in Walton County." If that is true, then the following statement also made, cannot be true: "Full-service restaurants (accounts for) 673 new jobs."

673 new jobs would equate to 8.66% of the total growth in Walton County.

I, too, am not challenging the basis of the premise that the jobs in this area don't equate to the employees being able to afford housing. I do agree with that. I do question the validity of the actual numbers since the math doesn't add up. ;-)

 

[SHELLY]

I'm not trying to challenge, but I do find these types of numbers interesting and am curious what I missed.

Thanks,

Let me try to help clarify the "All Sector" employment increase of 7,700 in Walton County:

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) keeps tabs on over 1100 industries. It breaks them into 2 Major categories: Goods-Producing and Service-Providing, Under these two major headings are 12 "Super Sectors," each super sector is further broken down into 20 industry sectors, each given a 2-digit NAICS (North American Industry Classification System)--see listing below:

Goods-Producing

Natural resources and mining

Sector 11 (Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting)
Sector 21 (Mining)

Construction

Sector 23 (Construction)

Manufacturing

Sector 31-33 (Manufacturing)

Service-Providing

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Sector 42 (Wholesale trade)
Sector 44-45 (Retail trade)
Sector 48-49 (Transportation and warehousing)
Sector 22 (Utilities)

Information

Sector 51 (Information)

Financial activities

Sector 52 (Finance and insurance)
Sector 53 (Real estate and rental and leasing)

Professional and business services

Sector 54 (Professional, scientific, and tech services)
Sector 55 (Management of companies and enterprises)
Sector 56 (Admin and support,waste mgt)

Education and health services

Sector 61 (Education services)
Sector 62 (Health care and social assistance)

Leisure and hospitality

Sector 71 (Arts, entertainment, and recreation)
Sector 72 (Accommodation and food services)

Other services

Sector 81 (Other services, except public admin)

Public administration

Sector 92 (Public administration)

Unclassified

Sector 99 (Unclassified)

Each 2-digit NAICS is further broken down.

Let’s look at Walton’s #1 employment growth area: Full Service Restaurants.
-----------------------------------------------------
The Super Sector is: Service Providing-Leisure and Hospitality

The Industry Sector (2-digit NAICS) is: Sector 72 (Accommodation and Food Service)

The 3-digit NAICS for the industry are:
721: Accommodation
722: Food Services and Drinking Places

The 4-digit NAICS under Food Services & Drinking Places are:
7221: Full Service Restaurants
7222: Limited Service Eating Places (Cafeterias, Snack Bars)
7223: Special Food Service (Caterers, Roach Coaches)
7224: Drinking Places

The 5 & 6-digit NAICS under Food Services & Drinking Places are:
722111 Full Service Restaurants (Fine, Fam Style, pizza etc.)
---------------------------------------------------

So the “57 4-digit NAICS” BLS employment information reported in the above case could mean that there is an employment increase in Full Service Restaurant employees, but a decrease in employment in bartenders, caterers and snack bar attendants.

Over the period of time surveyed (2001-2006) increases in 7 of the 4-digit NAICS (given this area’s reliance on tourism and real estate) and decreases in 50 4-digit NAICS which probably included industries such as agriculture and manufacturing-- was not unlikely as farmers, teachers and truck drivers joined the rush to obtain their real estate licenses or work with homebuilders.

(BTW, the above statistics are from ecanned.com)


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[elgordoboy]

Let me try to help clarify the "All Sector" employment increase of 7,700 in Walton County:

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) keeps tabs on over 1100 industries. It breaks them into 2 Major categories: Goods-Producing and Service-Providing, Under these two major headings are 12 "Super Sectors," each super sector is further broken down into 20 industry sectors, each given a 2-digit NAICS (North American Industry Classification System)--see listing below:

Goods-Producing

Natural resources and mining

Sector 11 (Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting)
Sector 21 (Mining)

Construction

Sector 23 (Construction)

Manufacturing

Sector 31-33 (Manufacturing)

Service-Providing

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Sector 42 (Wholesale trade)
Sector 44-45 (Retail trade)
Sector 48-49 (Transportation and warehousing)
Sector 22 (Utilities)

Information

Sector 51 (Information)

Financial activities

Sector 52 (Finance and insurance)
Sector 53 (Real estate and rental and leasing)

Professional and business services

Sector 54 (Professional, scientific, and tech services)
Sector 55 (Management of companies and enterprises)
Sector 56 (Admin and support,waste mgt)

Education and health services

Sector 61 (Education services)
Sector 62 (Health care and social assistance)

Leisure and hospitality

Sector 71 (Arts, entertainment, and recreation)
Sector 72 (Accommodation and food services)

Other services

Sector 81 (Other services, except public admin)

Public administration

Sector 92 (Public administration)

Unclassified

Sector 99 (Unclassified)

Each 2-digit NAICS is further broken down.

Let?s look at Walton?s #1 employment growth area: Full Service Restaurants.
-----------------------------------------------------
The Super Sector is: Service Providing-Leisure and Hospitality

The Industry Sector (2-digit NAICS) is: Sector 72 (Accommodation and Food Service)

The 3-digit NAICS for the industry are:
721: Accommodation
722: Food Services and Drinking Places

The 4-digit NAICS under Food Services & Drinking Places are:
7221: Full Service Restaurants
7222: Limited Service Eating Places (Cafeterias, Snack Bars)
7223: Special Food Service (Caterers, Roach Coaches)
7224: Drinking Places

The 5 & 6-digit NAICS under Food Services & Drinking Places are:
722111 Full Service Restaurants (Fine, Fam Style, pizza etc.)
---------------------------------------------------

So the ?57 4-digit NAICS? BLS employment information reported in the above case could mean that there is an employment increase in Full Service Restaurant employees, but a decrease in employment in bartenders, caterers and snack bar attendants.

Over the period of time surveyed (2001-2006) increases in 7 of the 4-digit NAICS (given this area?s reliance on tourism and real estate) and decreases in 50 4-digit NAICS which probably included industries such as agriculture and manufacturing-- was not unlikely as farmers, teachers and truck drivers joined the rush to obtain their real estate licenses or work with homebuilders.

(BTW, the above statistics are from ecanned.com)


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Think I'm gonna have to have 6thGen's better than %99.99999999999999 of humanity's IQ to get my mind around this.

 

[BrettMan]

I'm sticking with my prediction....

[ame="http://www.sowal.com/bb/showpost.php?p=167637&postcount=12"]SoWal Beaches Forum - View Single Post - Stick Your Neck Out and Predict[/ame]

 

[GRAHAM GINSBERG]

Is this the future of SOWAL beaches? You think you got problems...

New Jersey & New York Public Trust Doctrine
http://www.apublicrock.com/theugly.htm

 

[Mango]

 

[BlueMtnBeachVagrant]

:shock:
I can't believe I actually made a post like this. Feels good!;-)

 

[John R]

could this be what your public trust doctrine link was supposed to go to?

 

[sandflea]

Actually 6th, it IS the best time to buy

There is NO doubt our market is down. With the spike in prices we experience in 2004, the market had to stabilize. No way could have continued on that path. Will we ever get to that stage again? I certainly hope not.

Real Estate is cyclical- the good thing about being on the down side is we know there is going to be an upside. We've been down for a while so nowhere to go but UP

 

[Kurt]

Actually 6th, it IS the best time to buy

There is NO doubt our market is down. With the spike in prices we experience in 2004, the market had to stabilize. No way could have continued on that path. Will we ever get to that stage again? I certainly hope not.

Real Estate is cyclical- the good thing about being on the down side is we know there is going to be an upside. We've been down for a while so nowhere to go but UP

There may still be room to go downward but much success can be had buying on the way down and the way up if you are able. For many investors buying at the nadir is not, and should not, be the primary goal.