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BeachSiO2

Beach Fanatic
Jun 16, 2006
3,294
737
From a simpleton's perspective, the economics of our country makes me scratch my head. Is it correct that for us to have personal responsibility, we should save as much as humanly possible and limit extravagant, non-necessary purchases? However, for our economy to grow (or even survive) we must spend, borrow, use credit to buy cars every 3-4 years (or shorter even though they can last 10+yrs), big screen tv's, Shamwows and other tv gimics, etc.

It seems like what we need to do individually (save money) is the worst thing we can do to support our economy. Can someone set me straight?

P.S. I am not an economist or staying at a Holiday Inn Express so any insight is helpful.
 

SHELLY

SoWal Insider
Jun 13, 2005
5,763
803
From a simpleton's perspective, the economics of our country makes me scratch my head. Is it correct that for us to have personal responsibility, we should save as much as humanly possible and limit extravagant, non-necessary purchases? However, for our economy to grow (or even survive) we must spend, borrow, use credit to buy cars every 3-4 years (or shorter even though they can last 10+yrs), big screen tv's, Shamwows and other tv gimics, etc.

It seems like what we need to do individually (save money) is the worst thing we can do to support our economy. Can someone set me straight?

P.S. I am not an economist or staying at a Holiday Inn Express so any insight is helpful.


Here's an article written by Peter Schiff that sums up our situation nicely:

Credit Where Credit is Due

This week, in a speech before the London School of Economics, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a perverse economic theory in his quest to gather support for never-ending Wall Street bailouts; ?This disparate treatment, unappealing as it is, appears unavoidable. Our economic system is critically dependent on the free flow of credit, and the consequences for the broader economy of financial instability are thus powerful and quickly felt.? In other words, credit is the lifeblood of our economy, and the continued operation of credit providers is an issue of national security.

In truth, not all economies run on credit. But over the last decade, the United States became a bubble economy that needed unlimited credit to keep from collapsing. In a legitimate economy, it is not credit that fuels spending and investment, but simply income and savings. It?s too bad our Fed chairman does not understand the difference.

That American families now routinely rely on credit to make every-day purchases is a habit that needs to be broken and not encouraged. What we need in America is more restraint and less indulgence. For example, Americans in the current economy should not go into debt to buy new cars. Given the level of debt that weighs down the typical family, Americans should defer such purchases until they have paid down existing debt, or replenished their savings to the point where they can afford to pay cash. Until that time, Americans should continue driving their old cars. In the meantime, the untapped savings could be made available to local businesses that would use it to finance badly needed capital investments.

But such a drastic reversal in financial culture represents the kind of change that no one in the outgoing or incoming Administrations appears willing to consider. By providing perpetual support to lenders who have bankrupted themselves through bad loans, the government merely guarantees that bad economic behavior will continue.

Credit is indeed vital to an economy, but it does not constitute an economy within itself. The important thing to remember is that credit is scarce, and is limited by the stock of savings. Savings loaned to one individual is not available to be loaned to another until it is repaid. If it is never repaid, the savings are lost. Loans to consumers not only crowd out more productive loans that might have been made to business, but they have a far greater likelihood of ending in default. In addition, while business loans increase our capital stock and lead to greater productivity, loans made to consumers are merely spent, and do not create conditions that will make repayment easier. When businesses borrow to fund capital investments, the extra cash flows that result are used to repay the loans. When individuals borrow to spend, loans can only be repaid out of reduced future consumption. <SHELLY SEZ: Read this previous statement two or three times till it sinks in!!>

One of the reasons we are in such dire straits is that consumers have already borrowed and spent too much. Many did so based on the false belief that ever-appreciating real estate would ultimately provide the means to repay their debts and finance their lifestyles. Now that reality has finally set in, why should the spending spree continue? The fact that a GDP comprised of 70 percent of consumption is currently contracting should not surprise anyone. In fact, such a contraction is long overdue and the government should not do anything to interfere.

In trying to perpetuate the illusion, the government wants to revive the spending spree that has led us to this disaster. But how can such actions possibly help? How will more debt improve the economy? Wouldn?t our circumstances be vastly improved if we paid off some of our debts and replenished our savings? Wouldn?t we be in better shape if instead of buying more stuff we concentrated on producing it?

The unpleasant reality is that years of bad monetary and fiscal policy have over encumbered our economy with debt and undermined our industrial capacity. The sooner we can begin to repair the damages, the sooner we can right the ship. If instead we merely administer more of the same, the ship will sink in a sea of inflation.
 
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BeachSiO2

Beach Fanatic
Jun 16, 2006
3,294
737
Shelly:

Thanks for the enlightening post (as always). I am just having a hard time buying the argument that more personal spending on "junk" is good for the economy, but personal saving is good for the person. Something seems amiss since a person can only do so much spending if they are a responsible person and thus the economy can't be built responsibly :D
 

Chickpea

Beach Fanatic
Dec 15, 2005
1,151
366
30-A Corridor
Shelly:

Thanks for the enlightening post (as always). I am just having a hard time buying the argument that more personal spending on "junk" is good for the economy, but personal saving is good for the person. Something seems amiss since a person can only do so much spending if they are a responsible person and thus the economy can't be built responsibly :D

I am right there with you and also appreciate Shelley's post.
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,845
3,471
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Right here!
Shelly:

Thanks for the enlightening post (as always). I am just having a hard time buying the argument that more personal spending on "junk" is good for the economy, but personal saving is good for the person. Something seems amiss since a person can only do so much spending if they are a responsible person and thus the economy can't be built responsibly :D

More personal spending will just make the problem worse. We need to let this whole thing unwind, which points to a very long a painful recovery that could last for upwards of a decade or more. Here's a graph that pretty much sums up the problem.

usdebt.jpg



Fixing this will take lots of time. Government will try to "prop" things back up, but that will likely fail, and probably will make problems worse. (Which is a little scary because politicians tend to react even more violently when initial attempts at "fixing things" go awry.) For a good article (where this graph came from) on the subject go here -

Business Feed Article | Business | guardian.co.uk
 

TooFarTampa

SoWal Insider
More personal spending will just make the problem worse. We need to let this whole thing unwind, which points to a very long a painful recovery that could last for upwards of a decade or more. Here's a graph that pretty much sums up the problem.

Fixing this will take lots of time. Government will try to "prop" things back up, but that will likely fail, and probably will make problems worse. (Which is a little scary because politicians tend to react even more violently when initial attempts at "fixing things" go awry.) For a good article (where this graph came from) on the subject go here -

Business Feed Article | Business | guardian.co.uk

That is one scary graph. From a practical standpoint, though, how can we continue to function as a society if our economy grinds to a halt?

We are already in a bad place, but if unemployment continues to climb, think of the weight of this burden on both the federal government and the states. Sharply higher unemployment means fewer taxes collected. In Florida, we are already feeling the strain of record numbers of people applying for unemployment benefits and we are finding that we no longer can count on taxes from doc stamps and are collecting less from retail sales. If this gets really bad, we wouldn't even need a hurricane to wipe us out.

It is obvious we are trying to avoid a complete implosion here. And you know that the economists really have no idea what we should do next. Letting the entire economy collapse does not seem to be the correct option. And I don't think there is any way at this point that tax cuts will significantly boost productivity. I talk to small business owners all the time and many if not most of them are having to be extremely creative to survive. And nobody has the guts to start something new, unless they are forced to via layoffs.
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,845
3,471
59
Right here!
That is one scary graph. From a practical standpoint, though, how can we continue to function as a society if our economy grinds to a halt?

I suspect we're going to find out.

We are already in a bad place, but if unemployment continues to climb, think of the weight of this burden on both the federal government and the states. Sharply higher unemployment means fewer taxes collected. In Florida, we are already feeling the strain of record numbers of people applying for unemployment benefits and we are finding that we no longer can count on taxes from doc stamps and are collecting less from retail sales. If this gets really bad, we wouldn't even need a hurricane to wipe us out.

A precarious position, no doubt.. and it's real.

It is obvious we are trying to avoid a complete implosion here. And you know that the economists really have no idea what we should do next. Letting the entire economy collapse does not seem to be the correct option. And I don't think there is any way at this point that tax cuts will significantly boost productivity. I talk to small business owners all the time and many if not most of them are having to be extremely creative to survive. And nobody has the guts to start something new, unless they are forced to via layoffs.

Well, a couple comments. One, we don't know how much of this debt we have to elliminate to get to a sustainable place. We just know we reached a tipping point that was unstable. Will stability be reached after we elliminate 10%, 20%, 50%? Who knows, we wont until ten years from and we revisit graphs like the one above to see.

The unwinding of debt occurs in two basic ways right, pure destruction of debt, and paying off debt. I think we are seeing the effects of debt destruction in the banking crisis - foreclosures, defaults, value in mbs wiped out - all cause debt to simply vanish as financial institutions take write downs, slamming their balance sheets. The TARP was designed to soften this blow through the injection of capital, and now, the actual purchase of bad securities. In some cases government is simply injecting money into the balance sheets, in others it is taking over the bad debt by buying it. (Maybe Mango can confirm I've got this about right.)

The other form of debt reduction is where the stimulus comes in. Tax cuts and government spending both solve the long term problem, they allow businesses and consumers to pay off high debt levels over an extended period of time. That component of this is the long term solution, it needs to take place.

As far as tax cuts vs. government spending goes, as you point out, nobody really knows once this money goes out how consumers and businesses will use it. The debate seem to revolve around which area to target. What are the effects of a guy spending a dollar on a candy bar vs. the effects of a guy putting a dollar in his bank account? Some say the candy bar produces more return (Krugman), some say the bank account does (Mankiw). Nobody really knows, it's an experiment. So we have folks saying we should skew the stimulus in the hope that a signifigant chunk of the money might go to spending. Others feel we should hit savings dead on and get this over with. Some feel we should go at it from the middle - I think Obama is clearly one of these folks. (Probably a good thing.)

Overall, whether or not it's enough to have any effect is debatable. A couple hundred billion in stimulus per year feels a lot like squeezing a big tube of tooth paste into Niagra Falls to me. There's also a limit to how much we can do because we are borrowing most of the money, and we start paying it off as soon as we cash the check, raising debt levels back up (at lower interest rates). There are economists out there who are saying the stimulus is a horrible idea, and will make matters worse. Clearly we are going to ignore that segment, lets hope they are wrong.

Getting back to your original comment - we all know this is likely to be a long and painful process. Even with a stimulus the economy may still 'collapse', and after it's all over, we will still have to pay the check. But hey, maybe we get lucky, maybe Keynes and Krugman and Mankiw are all right, maybe all this will work out perfectly and we sail out of this with ease. :D I doubt it. :sosad:
 

traderx

Beach Fanatic
Mar 25, 2008
2,133
467
As to comparing the relative virtues of increased government spending versus reduced income tax rates, the verdict has been printed. Public works programs did not work to bring us out of the Great Depression. Reduced tax rates by Reagan brought us out of the Great Stagflation era and ushered in a incredible period of growth. BTW, according to Keynes theory, stagflation cannot occur.

Obama cannot and will not use lower tax rates as a cure because it crosses the grain of the Democratic Party. Class warfare precedes the good of the country.
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,845
3,471
59
Right here!
I think some of the comparisons between Obama's plans and FDR's New Deal aren't fair. The New Deal was different in a number of ways, and there were other major factors that played into the GD as well we won't see today - FDR's rampage against private business through programs like the TVA and regulation through the NRA, Hoover's Smoot-Hawley which never really got undone completely, FDR's messing with the gold standard, the travesty that was FDR's Wagner Act, tax increases thanks to social security, and high marginal tax rates meant to punish the rich.

As far as government spending goes, a big percentage of the spending Obama appears to be proposing will be channeled through government to the private sector as most of our public works development has been privatized. So far I'm not seeing the reformation of the CCC or the WPA, it's just funding. Granted there is a valid argument that government is inefficient at distributing these funds, meaning that a big percentage will be wasted yielding little return. But it's not going to produce much "crowding out" as far as I can tell.

This is of course preliminary. Things can change. I’ve seen some inklings of some of the mistakes of the past in Obama’s proposals and in laws already passed. Trade changes, the credit card holders bill of rights, the consumer products safety improvement act, talk of heavy regulation of the financial sector, and Obama’s “Corps” programs. So who knows, if things get worse, populism might force them to get more hardcore. We probably wouldn't see the NRA or the CCC, but we might get watered down versions of both with a little perfume sprayed on them. That would be bad bad bad. I’m also worried about his commitment of keeping the 2010 tax rollback in place - right when we might be seeing a glimmer of a recovery. Let’s hope he doesn't make that mistake.
 
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dgsevier

Beach Fanatic
As far as government spending goes, a big percentage of the spending Obama appears to be proposing will be channeled through government to the private sector as most of our public works development has been privatized. So far I'm not seeing the reformation of the CCC or the WPA, it's just funding. Granted there is a valid argument that government is inefficient at distributing these funds, meaning that a big percentage will be wasted yielding little return. But it's not going to produce much "crowding out" as far as I can tell.

The reality will be as you describe above.

I just got off a conference call with federal gov't representatives. The topic was the anticipated nuts and bolts of the stimulus package roll-out. Usually contracting and grant safeguards remain in place (non-supplant, local maintenance of effort, etc.).
 
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