Good New for Real Estate

[SHELLY]

How accurate is this? (margin of error)

In the Single Family Cat. 14 to 20 months of total inventory is not bad considering much is priced high. If there is a pickup in May and June the numbers could become under 12 months of inventory real easily. I know that as inventory decreases the rate of absorption increases dramaticly.

How did you come up with the 14-20 month figure?

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[AAbsolute]

How did you come up with the 14-20 month figure?

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Did I mention I only have a GED? I divided the number sold into the number listed. Thanks for bringing my attention to the fact that I attributed a variable of only one month to the time sample.

That seemed far to great of news.

 

[SHELLY]

Did I mention I only have a GED? I divided the number sold into the number listed. Thanks for bringing my attention to the fact that I attributed a variable of only one month to the time sample.

That seemed far to great of news.

...no sweat--I'm working on my Post-Doctorate in NAR-Math.

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[Busta Hustle]

there is about 4 years of inventory for single family houses in all of sw. I trust you both can convert that to months.

 

[beachmouse]

FAR only publishes numbers available to the general public for MSAs, no Walton numbers, but it seems like the markets on either side are startng to stabilize a little. Of course when you're talking real estate in Florida right now, the Panhandle can't help but look stable compared to a place like Ft, Myers (median single family price February 2008- $211,000; median single family sales price in F/09- $97,500 for a 54% decrease in average sales price)

Panama City MSA
Single family January 2008- $205,000
Single family January 2009- $163,300
percentage change -20

Condo january 2008- $275,000
Condo January 2009- $212,000
percentage change -23

Single family February 2008- $175,000
Single family February 2009- $185,000
percentage change -6

Condo February 2008- $255,000
Condo February 2009- $245,000
percentage change -4

Ft. Walton Beach MSA
Single family January 2008- $205,400
Single family January 2009- $188,300
percentage change -8

Condo january 2008- $375,000
Condo January 2009- $268,800
percentage change -28

Single family February 2008- $187,000
Single family February 2009-$197,000
percentage change -5

Condo February 2008- $335,000
Condo February 2009- $237,000
percentage change -29

 

[SHELLY]

the Panhandle can't help but look stable compared to a place like Ft, Myers (median single family price February 2008- $211,000; median single family sales price in F/09- $97,500 for a 54% decrease in average sales price)

Even though Ft Myers' sales prices were down by 54%, their sales were up 97% y-o-y, whereas Ft Walton Beach showed decreases in prices AND decreases in sales. One could say based on the statistics given, that Ft Myers has found its "pricing bottom" and Ft Walton Beach has not--making Ft Myers more "stable" than FWB. But it's all NAR-math. The Titanic found its bottom too.

 

[gmarc]

Don't get too excited. On the front page of investors business daily is a big article about how banks are hiding 800k of foreclosures on there books and they're not on the market or mls yet. They said its about 22% of all inventory and its not been unleased on the mkt as banks are scared of writing it down and being termed insolvent. So we have many years of problems to work threw. That said theres some great deals out there.

 

[TheSheep]

Don't get too excited. On the front page of investors business daily is a big article about how banks are hiding 800k of foreclosures on there books and they're not on the market or mls yet. They said its about 22% of all inventory and its not been unleased on the mkt as banks are scared of writing it down and being termed insolvent. So we have many years of problems to work threw.

So, surely not, you're saying we haven't hit bottom?



I heartily, completely and with great impudence disagr....who said that?......who said that commercial real estate hasn't yet begun to avalanche? That apartments were built on crystal ball prognostifications on which was heaped the dung of overvalued appraisals? That com developers took cheap, easy money, financed out and put 3-10% in their pockets (for rainy days of course).

If I catch that lying beetard, I''ll........

U.S. programs seen too late to stem foreclosure wave | Special Coverage | Reuters


nevermind.

:leaving: