You see where the projection heads back south....back in the gulf....oh boy!
Hurricane Gustav
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You see where the projection heads back south....back in the gulf....oh boy!
Tornado watch in effect until 7an tomorrow for Walton over to Pascagoula. NOAA weather radio just sounded alarm.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1054&tstamp=200808
Gustav's storm surge is not likely to breach the New Orleans levees--if they perform as designed
Gustav is a very large storm. Like Katrina, Gustav may carry a larger storm surge to the coast than its wind speeds might suggest. Currently, Gustav's diameter of tropical storm force winds is 340 miles. By landfall, this number is forecast to increase to 360 miles, which would make Gustav 80% as large as Katrina was at landfall. NHC's current storm surge forecast calls for a storm surge of 10-14 feet to the right of where the center of Gustav comes ashore. The latest computer generated storm surge map shows that highest surge will be along the levee system along the east side of New Orleans. Storm surge levels of this magnitude are characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. The levee system of New Orleans is designed to withstand a Category 3 storm surge. If Gustav intensifies more than the NHC forecast is calling for, there is a significant threat of multiple levee failures in the New Orleans levee system resulting in flooding of portions of the city. However, the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted their landfall points a bit further west, reducing the odds of a Category 4 storm surge in New Orleans. My best guess is that New Orleans will suffer a Category 2 or 3-level storm surge. The levees will hold with that level of storm surge, if they perform as designed.
The latest track forecast
The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted slightly west, with a central Louisiana landfall still the most popular solution. The GFDL model, which has all along insisted that Gustav would arrive at the coast a day earlier than the other models, has proven to have the correct timing. We should not be surprised if the center comes ashore as far east as New Orleans, or as far west as western Louisiana, given the current spread in the model tracks. Once Gustav makes landfall, it will slow down, and pose a significant rainfall/flooding threat to Louisiana and Texas. Portions of this region are under moderate to severe drought, so the flooding could have been worse. Only the HWRF model is forecasting that Gustav will drift southwestward back over the Gulf of Mexico after landfall. I am not expecting Gustav to be reborn off the Texas coast late in the week.
Gustav's storm surge is not likely to breach the New Orleans levees--if they perform as designed
Gustav is a very large storm. Like Katrina, Gustav may carry a larger storm surge to the coast than its wind speeds might suggest. Currently, Gustav's diameter of tropical storm force winds is 340 miles. By landfall, this number is forecast to increase to 360 miles, which would make Gustav 80% as large as Katrina was at landfall. NHC's current storm surge forecast calls for a storm surge of 10-14 feet to the right of where the center of Gustav comes ashore. The latest computer generated storm surge map shows that highest surge will be along the levee system along the east side of New Orleans. Storm surge levels of this magnitude are characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. The levee system of New Orleans is designed to withstand a Category 3 storm surge. If Gustav intensifies more than the NHC forecast is calling for, there is a significant threat of multiple levee failures in the New Orleans levee system resulting in flooding of portions of the city. However, the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted their landfall points a bit further west, reducing the odds of a Category 4 storm surge in New Orleans. My best guess is that New Orleans will suffer a Category 2 or 3-level storm surge. The levees will hold with that level of storm surge, if they perform as designed.
Where is everybody getting that it's going to curve back?
The purple shows it coming back, but the rest end over land. Whatever might come back will have very little if any strength to do anything.
The latest track forecast
The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted slightly west, with a central Louisiana landfall still the most popular solution. The GFDL model, which has all along insisted that Gustav would arrive at the coast a day earlier than the other models, has proven to have the correct timing. We should not be surprised if the center comes ashore as far east as New Orleans, or as far west as western Louisiana, given the current spread in the model tracks. Once Gustav makes landfall, it will slow down, and pose a significant rainfall/flooding threat to Louisiana and Texas. Portions of this region are under moderate to severe drought, so the flooding could have been worse. Only the HWRF model is forecasting that Gustav will drift southwestward back over the Gulf of Mexico after landfall. I am not expecting Gustav to be reborn off the Texas coast late in the week.
I am back on the "storm comfort food diet". Tonight it's lasagna, garlic bread, red wine, and 5 more pounds!
But it's keeping me sane.
French dip sandwiches with grilled onions, oven fried potatoes, banana pudding. Oh wait....it's not coming here!
It must be updating on sowal too, cause all I see is black, or that's one heck of a wave.
hey, I guess I should have saved it in a pdf and posted it! I didn't think about it actually streaming and updating (or whatever you call that).
Humid and full of mosquitos!
Here too. I kept having to spray Jackson down every time he went out to ride his bike.