Hurricane Katrina - II

[drsvelte]

Check this latest GFS projection:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_85v_mu_loop.shtml

Unfortunately, I am in Red Stick right now. Amazingly, there is a lot of complacency here. The TV stations in BR mention a perhaps western shift but not alot of concern. I understand that NOLA TV is about the same. Not good.

It looks like an Andrew wannabe.

 

[lollygal]

Disagree. We need some positive karma here and you ain't providing it, bro.

Amen, brother!

 

[WaltonUndercurrent]

Well, thanks Travel2Much. I'm well known as an overly dramatic cry baby lose my **** at the first sign of trouble sorta guy. Thanks for slapping me sober. I feel much better now.

 

[aquaticbiology]

Finally read the old Katrina thread - best was (paraphrased) "maybe we'll see how the GeoTubes do".

And so, just for kicks (and since there's really nothing we can do about it anyway regardless until Monday AM), and just in case it does hit or affect the area, betting may now begin on the following:

GeoTubes:

1) Missing (and not abducted by aliens thinking they were huge albino cows)

2) Popped (with the appropriate leaking of yecchy fill)

3) Intact (whether or not they did their job of protecting whatever)

GeoTube Impact:

1) Nothing Whatsoever (No worse or better protection, no sand capture)

2) Worse! (This does not include yecchy fill leaks, but washouts behind, etc)

3) Amazing! (It protected the beach and there's sand dunes up to the sky!)

I say:

Five bucks on missing GeoTubes.

and

Five bucks on a popped Tube mess, but the tubes are still there.

Put a drink in those wringing hands and relax until there's more data.

oh yeah, five more on Worse! (almost too relaxed!)

 

[aquaticbiology]

And no huge bets on popped Tubes and Navy Seal knife work in the middle of the night, ya'll!

That's it - relax.

 

[pgurney]

Here comes a really boring post. Borage, but heartfelt.

Folks, I'd like to point out here that we're not out of the woods. The models have recently shifted west to the Mississippi area, but this type of storm is very hard to predict....both the path and the intensity. Any slight change of path when a recurvature is predicted can amount to a very large difference in landfall location. Please don't get complacent now. This could be a very serious storm and it still has the possibility of turning this way...and it could do that with little warning. Stay on the toes por favor?

 

[JB]

Here comes a really boring post. Borage, but heartfelt.

Folks, I'd like to point out here that we're not out of the woods. The models have recently shifted west to the Mississippi area, but this type of storm is very hard to predict....both the path and the intensity. Any slight change of path when a recurvature is predicted can amount to a very large difference in landfall location. Please don't get complacent now. This could be a very serious storm and it still has the possibility of turning this way...and it could do that with little warning. Stay on the toes por favor?

Truer words have never been spoken. I will not begin to relax until it has passed 87 degrees longitude with no significant northerly turn. I imagine I will wake up several times during the night to check position/model changes.

 

[pgurney]

Oh no! This is really, really not a good thing. A hit on New Orleans like this would be catastrophic. Keep going west!

 

[Miss Kitty]

IMHO...Be careful what you wish for...and remember it's all wishful thinking! I continue to keep an eye on the storm...but, I'm trying my best to not watch TWC!!!

 

[aquaticbiology]

Data coming in (at last)

from the data bouy 260 nm South of Panama City, FL
at 26?00'32"N 85?54'50"W:
--------------------
Wind Speed: 33 knots
Gusts To: 38 knots
Wave Height: 20 feet

from the data facility at the PCB fishing pier:
-------------------
Wind Speed: 10 knots
Gusts To: 15 knots
Wave Height: not measured

The hurricane is still way more than 200 miles offshore, therefore computer models can be pretty much ignored, however it seems to generally still want to go to NOLA.

Marine forecast now includes the forboding Ivan-esque statement:
"WINDS AND SEAS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN KATRINA TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH."
In other words, contact with the front is what's going to turn Katrina north again, like a bumber on a pinball machine. It wants to keep going west but instead tracks right up the front (deja vu anyone?).

Enough doom and gloom, have a banana and go for a walk on a local beach wherever you are. Thought for today: There is sand everywhere in the world.