I wanted to ask it here too. We are to arrive in Seagrove Beach on Saturday. With the tracking of TS Chris looking like it will enter the gulf, it will effect Seagrove during our trip in some way. For those with experience in these things, at what point should we reconsider our trip? What are the chances of this thing going across the gulf versus turning to the NW and hitting the panhandle. I know its early but we need to plan if we can. I would hate to get caught in a mass evacuation with eight kids.
I posted this ? on the Environmental board, but..
- Thread starter Paige
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You can see 5-day forecasts for tropical storms and hurricanes by accessing the National Hurricane Center site. Google it up. It will give you a complete assessment of the chances of the tropical storm increasing or dissipating, based on meteorological measurements and aircraft assessments. At present, TS Chris is at 40 mph max wind strength, with very unfavorable conditions, in fact expected to dissipate because of windshear. Keep in mind that tropical storms are NOT hurricanes, just a good rain in most cases. The main concern about the TS is potential beach erosion because of high surf, and you would want to stay out of the Gulf waters because of rip tide conditions. If it was my vacation, I would certainly not curtail it on the basis of a tropical storm, especially one with this kind of forecast.
When you access the Web site, click on the "maps" and look at the 5-day forecast. You may also want to read the advisory text, which will tell you whether meteorlogocial conditions favor strengthening or dissipation. This information is now pretty accurate. Go and enjoy!
When you access the Web site, click on the "maps" and look at the 5-day forecast. You may also want to read the advisory text, which will tell you whether meteorlogocial conditions favor strengthening or dissipation. This information is now pretty accurate. Go and enjoy!
I like to read Dr. Jeff Masters' informative blogs on www.wunderground.com/tropical. He interprets the current situation clearly and without the rampant sensationalism you find on TV. He also offers his informed assessments of the prospects for development, path, and landfall.
He currently only gives Chris a 10-15% chance of becoming a hurricane. His opinion is that it stands a good chance of getting torn up by wind shear unless it successfully avoids winds from 2 nearby low pressure systems.
Also at wunderground, monitor the computer model predictions over the rest of the week. They may diverge from the official NOAA/NHC forecast.
The good news is that by Thursday or Friday, you will know enough to decide whether your trip is in jeopardy, so you can avoid coming altogether if there is bad weather coming.
He currently only gives Chris a 10-15% chance of becoming a hurricane. His opinion is that it stands a good chance of getting torn up by wind shear unless it successfully avoids winds from 2 nearby low pressure systems.
Also at wunderground, monitor the computer model predictions over the rest of the week. They may diverge from the official NOAA/NHC forecast.
The good news is that by Thursday or Friday, you will know enough to decide whether your trip is in jeopardy, so you can avoid coming altogether if there is bad weather coming.
The Hurricane Hunters found much stronger winds than expected in Chris this afternoon. The 2:50 pm EDT eye report indicated a central pressure of 1007 mb, down 2 mb from the most recent advisory. Most surprising were the winds in the southeast quadrant, which were in the 55-60 mph range. Radar out of Guadeloupe shows this intense band thunderstorms rather nicely. The northern side of Chris is still devoid of thunderstorms due to the dry air and wind shear. The storm's appearance on satellite imagery is improved from this morning, and shows the beginnings of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature typical of strong tropical storms. Wind shear has dropped another 5 knots this afternoon, down to 10-20 knots, so some continued strengthening is possible. The latest set of model runs are quite divergent on what Chris might do, and I think we really need to wait until the next set of model runs is in before we can rely on the computer models. Unfortunately, tonight's flight of the NOAA jet was cancelled, so we'll have to wait until Wednesday night for the jet to fly. Most of the computer models are still dissipating Chris by five days from now.
I'll be back with an update in the morning with the latest.
Jeff Masters
I'll be back with an update in the morning with the latest.
Jeff Masters
Well, I'm pretty glad I already took my trip to the Abacos in June.
"yboi_kma" dr m!since this is the first real baby of this year (and right on time, btw), the attention is all upon it
everyone will keep expecting the worst, some wishing to be proved 'right' and some wishing to be proved 'wrong'
again, welcome - would you like a beer or a cocktail? i would...but i'm working out fish growth ratio's and it might make it all go pear shaped