Ida heading toward SoWal [downgraded to tropical storm]
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My weather lab predicts a light drizzle and some downed pine cones. Even if this thing hits us it will be wimpier than the tropical storm that struck earlier in the year. Relax all, and enjoy this fine fall weather
Hopefully you don't mind if I switch your phrasing slightly, depending on how much swell it creates...
"don't forget about the extra sand it could push onto the beach."
Nice morning and temperature about 60F. Clouds on the southern horizon with blue skies overhead. But, instead of quiet gulf we've had the past few days could hear a pretty good surf this morning. At sunrise, couldn't really see waves breaking from about 1000 feet away, however, now about an hour later waves are splashing up against the shore and small white caps visible. On this coastal dune lake, winds are about 8 mph NE. Only one old coot (not me or the neighbors - we've had hundreds quacking about in the past
on the lake with waves about 1 inch. Update: three old coots on lake.
on the lake with waves about 1 inch. Update: three old coots on lake.
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Ida becomes hurricane a 2nd time off Mexico coast *| ajc.com
Ida is once again a HURRICANE!
"The hurricane center forecast that Ida could strengthen to Category 2 later Sunday."
Ida is once again a HURRICANE!
"The hurricane center forecast that Ida could strengthen to Category 2 later Sunday."
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Latest discussion from Crownweather.com
Discussion
Hurricane Ida :
Here is the 6 am Eastern Time/5 am Central Time Information On Hurricane Ida:
Location: 20.8 North Latitude, 85.7 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 mph.
Movement: Northwest or 325 Degrees at a forward speed of 12 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 millibars or 29.03 inches.
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found a 90 mph hurricane late last night with a 984 millibar central pressure. I expect Ida to strengthen some more today and for it to reach Category 2 strength either today or tonight. The reason for this thinking is because Ida will be over some very warm ocean waters for the next 24 hours or so and the environment is somewhat favorable. I suspect that Ida will peak at between 100 and 105 mph later this afternoon and tonight. As we get into Monday and Tuesday, Ida will start to track into cooler sea surface temperatures during Monday and also into an area of higher wind shear; although I continue to believe that Ida's forward motion will line up with the southwesterly wind shear and cause a net shear of nearly zero and thus not weaken as quickly as you would normally see. The global models forecast that Ida will start to become extratropical during Tuesday. I'm not convinced that Ida will be extratropical by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The latest GFDL model forecasts that Ida will come ashore as a Category 1 hurricane near Mobile, Alabama late Monday night. The latest HWRF model forecasts that Ida will come ashore as a Category 1 hurricane near Pensacola, Florida around midnight Monday night. In addition, the cyclone phase evolution webpage forecasts that Ida will remain a warm cored tropical system right through landfall. So, I have to disagree with the National Hurricane Center and I do believe that Ida will still be a tropical system and come ashore as a tropical system.
Ida is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph. Ida is forecast to come very close to the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula by early this afternoon and Ida will then track into the Gulf of Mexico tonight and then speed up in forward speed on Monday. Based on the latest model guidance and also the strength of the incoming trough, I have to disagree with the NHC on the timing of Ida. I think the storm will reach the northern Gulf much quicker than the NHC forecast; in fact, the GFS model forecasts Ida will make landfall in the extreme western Florida panhandle on Tuesday morning. The European model forecasts that Ida will be ashore on Monday night as does the GFDL, HWRF and Canadian models. So, my thinking is that Ida will be in the northern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening and then come ashore somewhere between Apalachee Bay, Florida and Gulfport, Mississippi with the most likely area being between Mobile, Alabama and Fort Walton Beach, Florida. The time of landfall will be between midnight Monday night and 9 am Tuesday morning. The strength of Ida at landfall looks to be somewhere between a 65 mph tropical storm and a 80 mph Category 1 hurricane.
The northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel will have hurricane conditions today, especially late this morning into this afternoon. Very heavy rainfall, hurricane force winds and a storm surge of up to 4 feet above ground level is likely in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today.
Ida will effect much of the northern Gulf coast with heavy rainfall of 2 to 6 inches, tropical storm force winds, high seas and coastal flooding starting on Monday and continuing through Tuesday. I understand, but respectfully disagree, on the National Hurricane Center letting the local NWS offices handle Ida with local watches and warnings and not issue a Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane Watch for parts of the northern Gulf Coast. So, residents and vacationers along the northern Gulf coast should closely monitor local media or their local National Weather Service office for the latest watches and warnings.
Discussion
Hurricane Ida :
Here is the 6 am Eastern Time/5 am Central Time Information On Hurricane Ida:
Location: 20.8 North Latitude, 85.7 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 mph.
Movement: Northwest or 325 Degrees at a forward speed of 12 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 millibars or 29.03 inches.
Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found a 90 mph hurricane late last night with a 984 millibar central pressure. I expect Ida to strengthen some more today and for it to reach Category 2 strength either today or tonight. The reason for this thinking is because Ida will be over some very warm ocean waters for the next 24 hours or so and the environment is somewhat favorable. I suspect that Ida will peak at between 100 and 105 mph later this afternoon and tonight. As we get into Monday and Tuesday, Ida will start to track into cooler sea surface temperatures during Monday and also into an area of higher wind shear; although I continue to believe that Ida's forward motion will line up with the southwesterly wind shear and cause a net shear of nearly zero and thus not weaken as quickly as you would normally see. The global models forecast that Ida will start to become extratropical during Tuesday. I'm not convinced that Ida will be extratropical by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The latest GFDL model forecasts that Ida will come ashore as a Category 1 hurricane near Mobile, Alabama late Monday night. The latest HWRF model forecasts that Ida will come ashore as a Category 1 hurricane near Pensacola, Florida around midnight Monday night. In addition, the cyclone phase evolution webpage forecasts that Ida will remain a warm cored tropical system right through landfall. So, I have to disagree with the National Hurricane Center and I do believe that Ida will still be a tropical system and come ashore as a tropical system.
Ida is currently tracking northwest at a forward speed of 12 mph. Ida is forecast to come very close to the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula by early this afternoon and Ida will then track into the Gulf of Mexico tonight and then speed up in forward speed on Monday. Based on the latest model guidance and also the strength of the incoming trough, I have to disagree with the NHC on the timing of Ida. I think the storm will reach the northern Gulf much quicker than the NHC forecast; in fact, the GFS model forecasts Ida will make landfall in the extreme western Florida panhandle on Tuesday morning. The European model forecasts that Ida will be ashore on Monday night as does the GFDL, HWRF and Canadian models. So, my thinking is that Ida will be in the northern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening and then come ashore somewhere between Apalachee Bay, Florida and Gulfport, Mississippi with the most likely area being between Mobile, Alabama and Fort Walton Beach, Florida. The time of landfall will be between midnight Monday night and 9 am Tuesday morning. The strength of Ida at landfall looks to be somewhere between a 65 mph tropical storm and a 80 mph Category 1 hurricane.
The northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel will have hurricane conditions today, especially late this morning into this afternoon. Very heavy rainfall, hurricane force winds and a storm surge of up to 4 feet above ground level is likely in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today.
Ida will effect much of the northern Gulf coast with heavy rainfall of 2 to 6 inches, tropical storm force winds, high seas and coastal flooding starting on Monday and continuing through Tuesday. I understand, but respectfully disagree, on the National Hurricane Center letting the local NWS offices handle Ida with local watches and warnings and not issue a Tropical Storm or even a Hurricane Watch for parts of the northern Gulf Coast. So, residents and vacationers along the northern Gulf coast should closely monitor local media or their local National Weather Service office for the latest watches and warnings.
I envision some happy surfers over the next couple of days.