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Em

Beach Fanatic
Sep 18, 2005
1,506
884
Walton Co.
I volunteer with a local organization, and about a week ago, was briefed that by the end of May, we should expect to see a Tropical Storm. I thought to myself, "how the heck can they tell that, this far out?" Well, here it is...

For more information, weatherunderground.com has great resources on Tropical Weather

at201090_model.gif
 

beachmouse

Beach Fanatic
Dec 5, 2004
3,499
741
Bluewater Bay, FL
Some discussion over at storm2k.org that designating the blob right now is probably something of a test to do some model runs on a 'live' storm since the NHC has changed some products and adjusted some models for this hurricane season.

Invest: A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.
 

beachmouse

Beach Fanatic
Dec 5, 2004
3,499
741
Bluewater Bay, FL
And Blob Watch 2010 is underway:

Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook
Sun, 23 May 2010 19:24:24 -0500

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240024
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THE NEXT
STATEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY MIDDAY MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

beachmouse

Beach Fanatic
Dec 5, 2004
3,499
741
Bluewater Bay, FL
Abnt20 knhc 241356
twoat
special tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
955 am edt mon may 24 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
non-tropical low pressure system centered about 475 miles southwest of bermuda has not become better organized since yesterday. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern atlantic ocean along with winds to gale force. The low is expected to move slowly toward the north-northwest and it still has the potential to acquire subtropical characteristics during the next day or so. There is a medium chance...30 percent... Of this system becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. For additional information... Please see high seas forecasts issued by the national weather service...under awips header nfdhsfat1 and wmo header fznt01 kwbc. Another statement will be issued by the national hurricane center this evening.

$$
forecaster pasch/roberts
 
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