Jan Metro Mkt #'s

[Cork On the Ocean]

Cork, I would respectfully take issue w/several statements..
1st..the numbers were from walton county tax sale records based on subdivision...i'm not referring to list prices...i believe closing prices have dropped...

Red, I don't disagree with you that particular subdivisions have some sales that have sold at lower than comparables. First, keep in mind that you are apparently using tax records for your data which is a couple of months behind and include sales that are not arm's length transactions. Also, while I haven't reviewed every subdivision on 30A, it's common knowledge that the JOE communities have taken a hit. I think this is largely due to excessive penalties for buildout times. Alys prices have sold for significantly more and I'd have to check but Im not aware of any properties that have had bargain sales in Rosemary.


however, i don't see what difference it makes...lower listings create lower closings....its arbitrary calling some prices ridiculous...ridiculous or not, those are closed prices that serve as valid comps regardless of opinion...and to your point r/e "realistic" prices, these jan volume numbers indicate that they aren't realistic enough yet...

To me it does make a difference. I can ask for $15 million for my house but it doesn't mean I'm gonna get it. This is what happened and a few people took the bait. My point being that there are not that many comps at those "ridiculous" prices relative to the total sales.

2nd..As stated previously, traditional demand theory suggests that volume is the leading indicator-pricing is the more lagging indicator...in fact, the reluctance of sellers to adjust prices could be secondary contributor to the severity of the downturn...

I'm sure that seller reluctance to drop prices is fueling the slowdown in sales but that tells me that the majority of owners on 30A are more resistant to economic changes. They don't all need to dump their places which will drive prices down.

so, for you "Cork" to be able to pinpoint the two months (which you did correctly) when volume dried up...you would almost have to shorten the horizon of data to determine position in the cycle...we only have #'s for jan 06...it seems to me that yoy comparisons at this point offer only consolation...thanks, Red

If you'll note my post stated "What makes this particular data difficult to use in predicting where we are in the cycle is " and "My thoughts are that it probably will be May 2006 until we see if we're gonna start a meaningful upward trend".

Not quite sure why you want to debate it. I make no predictions whatsoever. Didn't say everything will be Rosey in May. You seem to have a prediction that we're ready to crash and burn which in my opinion has no foundation at this point. Returning to a healthy market with modest appreciation is not mass forclosures, bankruptcies and people losing their butts. Are you an economist? Not intended to be sarcastic Just asking if you are a professional from the language you use.

I would hope that some people would appreciate the honest data that is being posted on this board rather than receiving anectdotal reports of a strengthening market. They'll sit tight, watch their market and make wise decisions.

 

[redfisher]

Cork, it was not my desire to seem confrontational and I don't have a negative bias (Nobody wants to hear good news more than you and I) It just doesn't look like we're low enough yet...How low?-I don't have a clue...But wherever it is, let get there and get it over with...

If I were to debate anyone (which I won't), it would be those who see a slowdown and throw their property out at an unrealistic price just to make themselves feel better about taking "some" action...that just seems to waste everyone's time...if you want to sell it, price it to move...

To your point, I rely on the honest data and have thought that a lot of what gets posted in these real estate threads is just baseless venting...As an aside, the Walton County Clerk's website has tax data w/scanned forms updated as of yesterday-extremely current...thanks, Red

 

[Cork On the Ocean]

Red,
Let's all keep our fingers crossed! Not sure if you're a full time resident or not but Summer's coming! Soon it will be back to free movies, concerts, soaking in the sun and chilling. My favorite time in South Walton.

 

[Bob]

Bob, I believe the history is an average of 6-12 mos from the time the fed has stopped raising to when it begins cutting again...Red

thanks redfisher