June 2006 Real Estate Sales

[spinDrAtl]

I can speak only for myself, but I'm still trying to digest the June 2006 figures for SoWal condo sales:

Avg List Price $644,094
Avg Sale Price $580,625
% Diff Sell/List 90.15%

Any hopes we might have had of selling our condo at a decent price and upgrading to a larger one are now indefinitely delayed thanks to those figures. That's why I'm quiet!

Buy your new place now during the low and then sell your current place later when prices rebound. :shock:

 

[goofer]

Shelly- Moto
Just like you took candy from us in the early 80's with your astute purchases in NYC and Hawaii, not to mention Pebble Beach !! :funn:

 

[SHELLY]

Why so quite? Too much information? Did anyone notice that inventory in a few categories actually decreased for the first time in a long time?

SJ,

I didn't comment since the numbers pretty much speak for themselves.....but since you asked..........

I don't see the inventory decreases in the stats given for June (neither Y-O-Y(!) nor M-O-M).

Discusing the Y-O-Y would be frivolous, but month-over-month:

I see a decrease of "1" for Det SF Sandestin-Ok, but they sold 19, which means the inventory was increased by 18 before the sales were booked.

In Attached SF Sandestin-Ok, they sold 11 but there was no change in inventory, which means the inventory was increased by 11 before the sales were booked.

The only "real" decrease I see is in Residential Land SoWal where they sold 21 and the inventory dropped by "34", which means 13 must have been taken off the market? Still that leaves 114 months (9.5 yrs) of supply up for sale.

All this inventory and JOE and others are still carving out more subdivisions and throwing up more houses and condos as we speak.

People!!....the Emperor is walking around bare-arsed naked!

I'd really like to know what folks think is going to turn this situation around in the next year or so? That "1,000" baby boomers per day/week/month flooding into Florida isn't it.

<I've declined the blindfold...fire when ready!>

 

[Smiling JOe]

SJ,

I didn't comment since the numbers pretty much speak for themselves.....but since you asked..........

I don't see the inventory decreases in the stats given for June (neither Y-O-Y(!) nor M-O-M).

Discusing the Y-O-Y would be frivolous, but month-over-month:

I see a decrease of "1" for Det SF Sandestin-Ok, but they sold 19, which means the inventory was increased by 18 before the sales were booked.

In Attached SF Sandestin-Ok, they sold 11 but there was no change in inventory, which means the inventory was increased by 11 before the sales were booked.

The only "real" decrease I see is in Residential Land SoWal where they sold 21 and the inventory dropped by "34", which means 13 must have been taken off the market? Still that leaves 114 months (9.5 yrs) of supply up for sale.

All this inventory and JOE and others are still carving out more subdivisions and throwing up more houses and condos as we speak.

People!!....the Emperor is walking around bare-arsed naked!

I'd really like to know what folks think is going to turn this situation around in the next year or so? That "1,000" baby boomers per day/week/month flooding into Florida isn't it.

<I've declined the blindfold...fire when ready!>

Man you are brutal. When I noted that a few categories saw decreases in inventory, I am referring to the net. Three out of ten categories DID see net decreases in inventory and one category saw no change in the net number of inventory. Sure, inventory is still very heavy. I totally agree with that, but to say that the slight decreasing shift in inventory isn't noteworthy is just wrong. This is the first time we have seen a decrease, as slight as it may be, in the past 2.5 years.

 

[SHELLY]

Man you are brutal. [/b]

I like ya Joe....consider it "tough love."

(Surely when you solicited comments, you weren't expecting a rah-rah-real estate post from me? )

 

[Dbaby]

Sherrey is right. U serry um uricans don't know how buy low , serul high. u pray
fur ree state market turn round. you bank count go berry up while u pray.
u buy big um urican car, when u courd own great japan car like toyota or honda.
Instead u buy gas drinking hummer. you need think like sherrey. she murst be japan worman.

 

[Smiling JOe]

I like ya Joe....consider it "tough love."

(Surely when you solicited comments, you weren't expecting a rah-rah-real estate post from me? )

I always enjoy reading your slant on things. The greater the number of accurate perspectives, the better information we can milk from the data. We have to stay in check. ;-)

 

[PTWizard]

People!!....the Emperor is walking around bare-arsed naked!

I'd really like to know what folks think is going to turn this situation around in the next year or so? That "1,000" baby boomers per day/week/month flooding into Florida isn't it.

Much as I hate to admit it Shelly has been right for a long time. It amazes me that developers still insist on creating new projects in this market! For me, it's reached the point of absurdity, although I am accumulating cash for buying opportunities down the road, maybe next year. I believe the worst is yet to come and we'll probably see a lot of bankrupt projects if not companies before this is over.

 

[monty]

Why so quite? Too much information? Did anyone notice that inventory in a few categories actually decreased for the first time in a long time?

The numbers speak for themselves . In South Walton, inventories continue to be sky high (I guess St Joe easing build out deadlines didn't have the desired impact of reducing inventory ) . They can't go much higher--it seems 1 out of every 3 or 4 properties are already on the market. This is especially true in the newer planned communities. And, sales are absolutely in the toilet. In many categories, sales in May and June, the busiest time of year, aren't any higher than November-February, the slowest time of the year. The only stuff selling is priced way below market highs. In some cases, lots are selling for 50% below prices of 18 months ago.

Why not simply admit that the market is tanking like other resort markets around the country? And contrary to some opinions on this board, this market is not priced way below California, Naples, and other high priced areas of the country. The market high prices were approaching $800 to $1000 per square foot or more for nice homes in this market and these homes are on postage stamp sized lots. Naples, Palm Beach, Hilton Head, Kiawah homes actually are built on lots that can accomodate more than the house and a pool the size of a jacuzzi. This market is ultra expensive by anyone's standards.

 

[SHELLY]

Much as I hate to admit it Shelly has been right for a long time.

Like they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day..

I've been watching this Real Estate run-up and the economics behind it for the last couple of years--there was no way the fundamentals could justify continuous, double-digit y-o-y appreication in SoWal real estate or real estate in any other part of the country for that matter. I observed the same thing happen with tech stocks and buyers of stock in bankrupt companies (even Beanie Babies)--the speculative frenzy fueled by the desire for a quick and substantial return on one's money was IDENTICAL in all cases.

It amazes me that developers still insist on creating new projects in this market! For me, it's reached the point of absurdity, although I am accumulating cash for buying opportunities down the road, maybe next year. I believe the worst is yet to come and we'll probably see a lot of bankrupt projects if not companies before this is over.

For homebuilders and developers it's a matter of "Build...or Die." That's why they keep doing what they're doing.