Just Got An Email From A Realtor

[monty]

That place is an old dump! With all the new stuff in PC, no one wants those old units, gulf front or not.

The unit listed on this thread may be a dump, but there are plenty of brand new units in this price range. Some of these gulf front units are priced at under $400 per square foot and they aren't moving. Check it out on the MLS by going to the property search area of this website.

 

[monty]

A whopping 600 s/f unit. Doesn't look like such a deal to me.

Look at the price per square foot and you will find that prices in PCB are actually a great deal compared to many other areas of the gulf and east coast.

 

[monty]

People considering purchasing a home or vacation home in this area need to get a well-rounded view of the costs/potential. It makes a lot of sense for some people to buy in SoWal (or Panama City Beach) now, and not much sense for other people to buy in SoWal (or Panama City Beach) now. It's silly to be overly optimistic or pessimistic about this area or any area or any investment...or to let any message board commentators influence your home-purchase decision in any way other than food for thought or entertainment (but not considered balanced or "looking-out-for-your-best-interests" advice).

Our personal experience is this: We are so happy that bought into the SoWal community and that we made some wise well-thought out lifestyle and financial choices. We did a lot of "homework" before buying here. We listened to naysavers, advocates, and good friends who lived in the area and had a realistic view of the benefits and costs (and who introduced us to a realtor who would look out for our best interests). Most importantly, we met with our unbiased accountant who made sure we weren't getting in over our heads and could afford to weather a bad market if necessary for a while (he told us where he thought our financial limits were and, though we planned to have rental income, he told us not to count on rental income to pay the mortgage). Also, we didn't buy into SoWal as an "investment" so we don't have the "time the market" worries. We bought here to enjoy the area and figured over the long-term our property would gain value at least at an average rate. We also figured it was better spending our income on real estate than new cars and other things that don't increase in value (I read the books The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad/Poor Dad which influenced our decision to put money toward mortgages rather than into things that don't gain value.)

It would be useful to hear other stories about people's experiences buying in SoWal, including stories of people who lost a lot of money. These first-hand experiences would provide useful advice as well. Other than one (maybe two) people on this board, I haven't heard any gloom and doom stories because most buyers are thoughtful about their decisions -- and few people who purchase in places like SoWal think owning real estate anywhere is free from risk so they plan accordingly. Most people already know that markets go up and down, so that's nothing new.

Every now and then out of curiosity I look at the real estate listings in the area and I still see some homes/condos that seem reasonably priced now. They're not cheap, of course, (though some seem to be reasonable to me for a place on the coast) but SoWal isn't the area to look for great deals anymore, just lovely places that will build memories for family and friends and that have the potential to be solid investments.

The only thing that worries me about the area is the risk of hurricanes. To make sure I keep perspective, I have to keep reminding myself that (1) the odds of a home being severely damaged by hurricanes is still very low even if hurricane activity increases; (2) our places are built to recent hurricane codes and we're up on high dunes so we're protected somewhat from storm surge; (3) we have insurance and keep some savings in the banks in case we need it to take care of our SoWal property; (4) even after the most recent hurricanes, the area still looked beautiful to me (the sunset is still awesome);(5) I sure gained more appreciation for Mother Nature, learned about the changing coastline, and felt even more a part of the community for having weathered a few storms together (and this message board was an absolutely wonderful source of information and support before and after the hurricanes thanks to Kurt and others who kept us all informed with your photos and up-to-date information).

Not sure if you bought during the height of the craze, but I would bet that people that bought a home at the height of the craze probably don't feel quite as cozy about their investment/home as you do. Prices have fallen a lot since the peak and many people are under water on paper.

 

[SHELLY]

Are there really that many properties on 30-A? Is your point that these "100's" of investors have driven up the price on 30-A and will not see a huge profit? You are entitled to your opinion, but I don't understand the one note quality of your posts. People make bad decisions everyday with their money. How has this affected you?

The "other kind" I was referring to are the "investors." I couldn't care less if they make a gazillion or have to sell their property short and bring a bunch of money to the closing.

The greed during the tech/dot-com crash resulted in little more than a bunch of paper losses, job losses and tears--bad, but repairable.

The real estate greed is much more destructive--upsetting towns' infrastructure and economies; destroying wetlands and animal habitats; clearcutting trees and flattening dune systems; and replacing the view of sun, stars and sky with towers of concrete and glass. All gone....never, ever to be seen again--and not repairable.

 

[Amp22]

The real estate greed is much more destructive--upsetting towns' infrastructure and economies; destroying wetlands and animal habitats; clearcutting trees and flattening dune systems; and replacing the view of sun, stars and sky with towers of concrete and glass. All gone....never, ever to be seen again--and not repairable.

So you are so negative about the world and upset about rising real estate prices because you are concerned about the environment and the plight of Floridians? Whatever the case, almost everyone is tired of you dumping on every thread.

 

[Smiling JOe]

Not sure if you bought during the height of the craze, but I would bet that people that bought a home at the height of the craze probably don't feel quite as cozy about their investment/home as you do. Prices have fallen a lot since the peak and many people are under water on paper.

True, but a gain or loss on paper is neither until you sell. If you are buying a beach home for lifestyle, as many people do, you don't worry about the numbers. How many people look at their homes value on a daily basis, like investors looking at a stock ticker? I bet it is less than you may think.

 

[Cork On the Ocean]

Not sure if you bought during the height of the craze, but I would bet that people that bought a home at the height of the craze probably don't feel quite as cozy about their investment/home as you do. Prices have fallen a lot since the peak and many people are under water on paper.

You guys really keep us working with some of the remarks about the doom of the market up here but it helps me keep up with what's going on so here goes:

I ran sold sales of gulf front condos less than 1 year old between corresponding dates for 2005 and 2006 in Tampa Bay (Sarasota to Hudson), South Florida (Jupiter to Ft Lauderdale) and Panama City Beach. There are 3 different systems that produce data differently so the Cma's look different but all produce the ave sq ft price for the subject searches. You'll see that:

Tampa Bay had an increase in value and in the number of sales this year.

South Florida had a decrease in both value and the number of sales this year but have to say that with only 2 sales this year, the tremendous drop in value is highly suspect. It could be indicative of a decrease in high-end buyers down there over last year and/or the production of more affordable housing. Or it could just be not enough data because of the 2 month time frame. It's really late and if anybody cares I'd be happy to look into it more closely.

I restricted Emerald Coast Search to Panama City Beach as a result of some comments about the flooding of condos over there but you will see that this year so far, we've had a flattening of prices from 1st quarter 2005 (which was before the drop so prices were at peak) but they have not fallen a lot as Monty stated. Also the number of sales have nearly tripled since Jan 2005 which is the first significant increase I've seen since 1st quarter last year. Number of sales have been up and down every other year since 2002 and if that trend were to continue, they would rise again this year since last year was down but as we all know, in the short term anything can happen and as everyone knows there is a lot of inventory on the market.


Tampa Bay - 01/01/05 - 02/26/06 - Ave sq ft Price = $478.26 (3 sales)
Tampa Bay - 01/01/06 - 02/26/06 - Ave sq ft Price = $507.04 (8 sales)

SE Florida - 01/01/05 - 02/26/06 - Ave sq ft Price = $717.69 (4 sales)
SE Florida - 01/01/06 - 02/26/06 - Ave sq ft Price = $396.47 (2 sales)

Panama City Bch - 01/01/05 - 02/26/06 - Ave sq ft Price =$452.85 (3 sales)
Panama City Bch - 01/01/06 - 02/26/06 - Ave sq ft Price = $450.03 (8 sales)

To those making predictions based on heresay or isolated cases, I can only say that everybody has an opinion, some people may have rushed to judgement and "dumped" their property too quickly . Some people may have acted foolishly and gotten in over their heads as Paula mentioned. The information that we have a lot of inventory right now is correct, as is the fact that some investors are running but they really have no one to blame but themselves for getting greedy and overextending themselves to make that quick buck. I see no current foundation for this whole hullabaloo about the crashing real estate market. And for those making predictions based on mortgage rates, they probably will go up but as of yesterday, I believe interest rates were right about the same as 4/2004 which was right in the middle of the "craze".

If you are or want to be active in this real estate market, work with somebody that can give you numbers not premonitions and if you're not active in the market, why do you care?

Paula's a wise investor and has the spirit to enjoy and appreciate this beautiful place that's been put here for us, as do many of the people on this board.

 

[Miss Kitty]

Thank you cork...I enjoyed reading this and even learned some things!

 

[SHELLY]

"And for those making predictions based on mortgage rates, they probably will go up but as of yesterday, I believe interest rates were right about the same as 4/2004 which was right in the middle of the "craze"."

Mortgages and loans are a big piece of the puzzle.

The 4 things that fueled the hot real estate market (cheap land, cheap loans, fast appreciation and speculation) are pretty much gone.

Many "investulators" bought pre-construction with money they most likely pulled out of home equity. They were planning on a quick flip before or on-the-day the mortgage was due. When the developer comes knocking for the rest of his money, many of these folks will find it difficult to get a mortgage let alone have enough money to pay out carry costs (assn fees, taxes, property mgt, insurance). And the "boomers" that they hoped to sell them to are having an equally hard time unloading their 5-Bedroom homes into a slow market in Bayonne, NJ.

Many other "investulators" bought actual condos, houses and property using a variety of short-term ARMs or other exotic financing whose rates have shot up substantially over the last 2 years thanks to the Fed. (investulators don't use 30-year fixed mortgages). These folks never intended to hold them beyond the initial ARM period, but needed to hold them long enough to qualify for long-term capital gains. They might have been able to afford the payments at first, but the new mortgage and increased carrying costs will be a burden the longer they sit on the market.

"Investulators" are the fly in the ointment of the real estate market and will level and cause some decreases in property "values." ("Values" meaning what some folks think their property is worth based on what the 'guy down the street' got for his lot/house/condo in July 2005.)

Not all these people are rolling in dough like those of us here on the boards.

 

[Jellyfish]

I had lunch with a business associate Friday who was stressing over just that. Had his lot on market, approaching build out date, never intended to build, 3 year option ARM adjusting soon...etc. Said if he does not sell by July payment will double. His problem is not "crashing values", it's the carrying costs/transaction costs/mortgage cash flow dynamic vis a vis what he can sell it for. For buy and hold/build/keep the market is not an issue. For those who lived on the edge, problems for sure.

I am hoping for some great deals this year so I can buy in...I'm long term.