For those of you that disagree, let?s revisit this post at the end of ?07, ?08 and ?09. The data will speak for itself.
Yes, let's do that. Let's see if you're the new Oracle of SoWal.
For those of you that disagree, let?s revisit this post at the end of ?07, ?08 and ?09. The data will speak for itself.
Reading threads a few years back you see very few people with the courage to voice pessimistic views of the real estate outlook in South Walton. They received scathing responses. Today these people look like oracles. I applaud the dissidents who through careful analysis of the market, not hope or any other irrationality, knew it was and still is falling substantially.
Real estate as an asset class doesn?t turn around in 1-2 years as so many people on these boards purport. Cycles typically run 8-10 years or more. For the next 2 years you will see prices decline as much as 50% off current levels, then flat or gains of 1-3% over the next decade (factoring inflation you will have net losses).
Look at the current institutional community. The last 10 years saw a very large runup of investment allocated to R.E., today you can?t find a CIO who isn?t quickly reducing exposure to R.E. and reallocating into different asset class such as fixed income, private equity or traditionals.
You ask, what does the institutional community have to do with me Joe Citizen? If you study the market over long periods, let?s say 30 years, the residential market trails the institutions by 12 ? 18 months and follows the trend line quite remarkably.
Analyzing macroeconomic factors such as defaults in subprimes and now Alt-a?s looming, plus microeconomic factors such as higher insurance, taxes, etc?you see significant losses and erosion of value in real estate over the next 5 to 10 years. Bernanke will try to stave off the hemorrhaging real estate market with adjustments to the money supply but the bubble will burst and burst louder than tech in 2000.
We have had a second home in 30-a since the early 80?s and have heard varying degree?s of commentary on the market but nothing like the current optimistic dogma being spewed today. The reason I posted is to address those giving investment advice to home owners like ?hold on? and ?weather the storm.? You are doing a great disservice to the average home owner (Unless they are prepared to hold on for 10 years).
For those of you that disagree, let?s revisit this post at the end of ?07, ?08 and ?09. The data will speak for itself.
For those of you that disagree, let?s revisit this post at the end of ?07, ?08 and ?09. The data will speak for itself.
Let?s see now; rapidly increasing inventory, major uncertainty over insurance and taxes, seemingly unprecedented pessimism from some normally optimistic Realtors. Sounds like capitulation to me. Maybe it?s time to break out the checkbook.
Actually, I was feeling pretty good until I read this thread. The weather has been beautiful at the beach, the canals north of Grayton are finally being dredged, I just finished building a great dock for my bay boat, and I was looking forward to a really great summer in SoWal.![]()
The buyer pool never left. The perception of value left! We need to help folks see the value by getting some of this inventory that is not selling off the market.
Actually, I was feeling pretty good until I read this thread. The weather has been beautiful at the beach, the canals north of Grayton are finally being dredged, I just finished building a great dock for my bay boat, and I was looking forward to a really great summer in SoWal.![]()