Asset Reflation Does Not Signal Recovery for U.S.'s Collapsed Economy -- Seeking Alpha If all the highly informed people who?ve been waging a war the past six months against rising stock prices would just step back for a moment, they would perhaps understand better that their macro views are supported, not negated, by asset reflation. For it?s this asset reflation that hints at the singular and doomed strategy of our monetary policy, and its overlay on our collapsed economy.
Just so that I?m clear: there is no macroeconomic recovery occurring in the United States. What?s unfolding currently is snap-back from last year?s crash, which led us to the bottom of a spider-hole. The positive bits of macro data, dribbling out here and there, are really just about getting us back to zero. A kind of steady-state, expected to carry on for some time to come. And that?s a best-case scenario.
Amusement Park
You can think of the US economy as a kind of defunct amusement park, over which the FED has poured trillions of dollars of syrupy goo. The caramel candy is there for tasting, but it doesn?t turn the machines back on. The ferris wheel is silent. Since WW2, Washington has always been able to call upon Housing and Autos as the two areas to stimulate, to pull the country out of recessions. Of course, we just did that in super-sized fashion 6-7 years ago, to extract ourselves from the last recession. So, it?s kind of sad to see policy makers trying this again. Failed thinkers promote failed playbooks.
Just so that I?m clear: there is no macroeconomic recovery occurring in the United States. What?s unfolding currently is snap-back from last year?s crash, which led us to the bottom of a spider-hole. The positive bits of macro data, dribbling out here and there, are really just about getting us back to zero. A kind of steady-state, expected to carry on for some time to come. And that?s a best-case scenario.
Amusement Park
You can think of the US economy as a kind of defunct amusement park, over which the FED has poured trillions of dollars of syrupy goo. The caramel candy is there for tasting, but it doesn?t turn the machines back on. The ferris wheel is silent. Since WW2, Washington has always been able to call upon Housing and Autos as the two areas to stimulate, to pull the country out of recessions. Of course, we just did that in super-sized fashion 6-7 years ago, to extract ourselves from the last recession. So, it?s kind of sad to see policy makers trying this again. Failed thinkers promote failed playbooks.