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fisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 19, 2005
822
76
Fisher, I believe your post which brought all of the attention mentioned that June 2008 was the worst month we've seen this year. All of the information provided since that post shows otherwise. I don't recall saying that the avg sale price has been trending up since last year. What I have said is that the avg sales price for June 2008, for detached homes in areas 16-19, were in line with the avg sales price for all of 2008. I'm not sure how you are reading my posts as sales price of home sales is taking off to the sky, but that is what it sounds like you are suggesting that I'm saying. Would it help if I concur that the avg sales price for June 2008 for detached homes in areas 16-19 was significantly lower than June 2007? I do agree with that very narrowly-focussed assessment.

Actually, I said that June was the worst month we have seen in a long time (and remember that the comment was based on the Real Trend report. Overall, the comment was dead on for Walco as a whole). So, those subsequent posts do not show my comments to be wrong. No one questioned the stats for all of Walco. The subsequent posts by you and others are focused on Sowal not Walco like my real trend posting that started this line of posts.

My subsequent posts started looking at year over year trends to counter the Sowal directed comments that April, May and June numbers look good compared to Jan, Feb and March of the same year (no kidding, the late spring numbers look better than deep winter numbers? Now thats a revelation!). My points were that prices continue to be on a downward spiral in Walton County as a whole and in Sowal too. In fact, with the additional info that Murray supplied, I posted that prices are down more in Sowal than they are countywide.

I was told that my comments regarding the real trend report were too BROAD and that I needed to look more closely at the Sowal only market. So, I did focus on Sowal. Now you are saying my comments regarding both June AND June year to date price trends for Sowal are too NARROW. You also specifically asked for a look at the rolling 3 months average and I provided that too. Those numbers look bad too. So, where is the sweet spot for doing a bit of analysis of trends in the market? Is it all of walco or just sowal? Is it a 6 month average or a 3 month average or a 1 month average. I provided all of those trend numbers in posts above. And, none of the trends seem to be relevant be they broad or narrow. What gives? Give me the 12 month numbers or the 24 month numbers, I can crunch those quickly too. They will likely tell the same story of a rapidly declining market.
 
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fisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 19, 2005
822
76
Joe,

Let's say hypothetically that in January 2008, I posted the comment that volume in January was at the lowest level since March 2007 (not sure it's true, but it could be based on seasonal trends). I would have gotten a huge amount of grief. Why, because it is a very narrow comment and an apples and oranges comparison. Sales in January are generally very, very low compared to most other months--especially spring months.

So, when Murray posts things like this--"Regarding home sales (detached, attached, and condos) for April 2008, I am glad to see the sales numbers hold tight to March 2008 sales, which were up over Jan and Feb '08. That gives us two fairly strong, consecutive months of sales, and the average sales price is up 30% over March 2008, " I call BS. Just like you would have done to me if I had made a comment about January sales being low compared to spring months.

So, it's hard for me to swallow your comments about being narrow compared to the fluffy spin from Murray.
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
I think you forget that several people have been saying that business is down, and that they didn't believe the "Realtor hype" when some Realtors posted that they had been busy. Having increased sales for a few months does back up what they said about writing contracts and being busy.

I think you just want to disagree, and that is fine.
 
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