Price Drops and Inventory

[fisher]

My typo. Should read (and I edited my post):34 % increase in qty of sales over 2007 (51 sales in June 2008)

(single family detached homes between Mack Bayou and Inlet Beach)
month year qty avg sale
Jan 2008 23 $876,036
Feb 2008 29 $687,420
Mar 2008 42 $605,784
Apr 2008 32 $1,082,743
May 2008 43 $719,194
Jun 2008 51 $831,649

Now to take the spin off the numbers.

Using your data, the average sale price in June 2007 was $1.265 million. That's a 35% decrease in average price year over year.

What are total sales dollars and volume year to date June 2007 and June 2008? It would be interesting to see how the average price is doing year to date compared to the huge 35% drop in June.

 

[TooFarTampa]

Now to take the spin off the numbers.

Using your data, the average sale price in June 2007 was $1.265 million. That's a 35% decrease in average price year over year.

What are total sales dollars and volume year to date June 2007 and June 2008? It would be interesting to see how the average price is doing year to date compared to the huge 35% drop in June.

Are you taking out the $7+million closing for the home in Rosemary from June 2007, which as Murray alluded to somewhere, skewed the numbers from that month?

 

[fisher]

Are you taking out the $7+million closing for the home in Rosemary from June 2007, which as Murray alluded to somewhere, skewed the numbers from that month?

The $7 million dollar sale in Rosemary occurred in Sept 2006 according to county records.

There were two fairly decent sized sales in RM in June 2007. Throwing those out of the totals brings the average price down to $1.165 million. However, I guess you need to throw a couple of large dollar sales out of the June 2008 numbers to be consistent. Regardless, the average sales price is still WAY down below 2007. In addition, I'm not sure, but I don't believe that short sales and foreclosures are included in the numbers Murray quotes (????). Those are real sales and are an indicator of the true nature of the market. Excluding those sales from the mix skews all of the numbers to the positive side in 2008 versus 2007. I would like to see the numbers including ALL sales in the market.

That's also why I asked for year to date numbers to get a bigger sample size over a longer period of time. Gives you a little better comparison.


Anyway, are you trying to imply that prices aren't really falling in Sowal? This market is not immune to the problems that are plaguing the rest of the country. In fact it is much worse than the average market. Discretionary income is drying up and luxury purchases are being delayed or forgotten. This includes second homes. Unfortunately, it appears that we are in for a very, very rough ride for a couple of years.

Depending on the outcome of the election. It could get much, much worse for secondary home markets. If the democrats sweep, and tax rates skyrocket, the potential roster of buyers of second homes will shrink dramatically.

 

[TooFarTampa]

Anyway, are you trying to imply that prices aren't really falling in Sowal? This market is not immune to the problems that are plaguing the rest of the country. In fact it is much worse than the average market.

Where on earth did you get that idea? Do you think I am an idiot?

Murray said somewhere on an earlier page that the Rosemary closing for $7 million was in June 2007. That is why I asked the question. It seemed like a valid question.

Here is the link to the original post about the Rosemary house, which also indicated that the house closed in June 2007. Perhaps the original post was wrong. At a later time tonight I can go look it up in the public records. Maybe you have already done so.

http://www.sowal.com/bb/showthread.php?t=18557&highlight=rosemary+teardown

Of course prices are falling. Like everyone else reading this thread, I am trying to figure out how much farther there is to go. That is why I asked 30-A shopper more about his chart, and that is why I asked you the question about the $7 million house skewing the numbers.

I don't have rose-colored glasses on about the economy, the current market, the cost of ownership, or anything. I do however believe that South Walton has and will retain a strong inherent value relative to most other coastal areas. As I have said before, if all the other second home markets/coastal areas collapse in value, all bets are off.

 

[TooFarTampa]

I just looked it up.

Lyle Finley did indeed purchase that parcel in June 2007, according to the property appraiser's website, and tore it down a few months later. Cost: $7.88 million.

The house next door, which sounds like you may have mistaken it for, also sold for over $7 million, in September of 2006.

So: How or did that purchase skew the June numbers? If you throw out the top and bottom values like an Olympic figure skating judge, what do you get for June 07 and June 08?

 

[Smiling JOe]

ECAR sold statistics include any short sales and foreclosures which involve a Realtor on either side of a transaction. ECAR's sold properties are also supposed to include any sold at auction when the auction company is a member of ECAR, per MLS rules.

The average home sale in South Walton is reported in an above post and shows that price increasing over the last two months, and inventory has dropped during that time. Is the sky falling, Chicken Little? Also, using those figures, June's average price is right in line with the average for the year to date.

 

[fisher]

I just looked it up.

Lyle Finley did indeed purchase that parcel in June 2007, according to the property appraiser's website, and tore it down a few months later. Cost: $7.88 million.

The house next door, which sounds like you may have mistaken it for, also sold for over $7 million, in September of 2006.

So: How or did that purchase skew the June numbers? If you throw out the top and bottom values like an Olympic figure skating judge, what do you get for June 07 and June 08?

Okay.. Throw out Finleys house and add back the other two I threw out in the previous summary and you get roughly the same answer--average price is down 30% or so year over year.

 

[fisher]

ECAR sold statistics include any short sales and foreclosures which involve a Realtor on either side of a transaction. ECAR's sold properties are also supposed to include any sold at auction when the auction company is a member of ECAR, per MLS rules.

The average home sale in South Walton is reported in an above post and shows that price increasing over the last two months, and inventory has dropped during that time. Is the sky falling, Chicken Little? Also, using those figures, June's average price is right in line with the average for the year to date.

What is the average price compared to prior year? There have been no chicken littles on this forum. All the bears have been right on the money and the bulls have been dead wrong.

The sky hasn't stopped falling.

 

[30ashopper]

ECAR sold statistics include any short sales and foreclosures which involve a Realtor on either side of a transaction. ECAR's sold properties are also supposed to include any sold at auction when the auction company is a member of ECAR, per MLS rules.

Would an ECAR affiliated agent care to publish that data here so we can graph it out and really see where we are headed?

The average home sale in South Walton is reported in an above post and shows that price increasing over the last two months, and inventory has dropped during that time.

Joe, I respect your view on things. You're a veteran on this board and everyone here respects your opinion, myself included. But come on, is inventory really dropping when you look at the data overall? Are prices really increasing? We both look at the hot sheets. When was the last time we noted a "+10" in a price change hot list? Also, I've published graphs here based on Josh's ECAR inventory data. Is inventory really dropping?

 

[SHELLY]

We both look at the hot sheets. When was the last time we noted a "+10" in a price change hot list? Also, I've published graphs here based on Josh's ECAR inventory data. Is inventory really dropping?

I suspect some inventory drops off the MLS as it is rented out or goes into foreclosure.

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