Price Drops and Inventory

[fisher]

As noted in my summary, those 98 sales were for combined residential, which includes homes, townhomes, and condos. If you want the break down, you should subscribe to my emails with spreadsheets.

Again, you are misreading my summary. The 98 sales is combined residential for South Walton.

Here is your quote from the blog--

"Starting with the big picture first, home sales continue to be fairly level with 98 selling in South Walton, though we are down slightly compared to May of 2008 (110 sold)."

You did not clarify that the 98 included condos, SFH and townhomes. You said homes which in my simple mind means houses, not condos. I misinterpreted your words.

I appreciate the fact that you post specific data on sowal, but the blog entries make it sound as if the market is on the upswing which is in actuality it is not. That is why I used the term spin.

 

[30ashopper]

Here is your quote from the blog--

"Starting with the big picture first, home sales continue to be fairly level with 98 selling in South Walton, though we are down slightly compared to May of 2008 (110 sold)."

You did not clarify that the 98 included condos, SFH and townhomes. You said homes which in my simple mind means houses, not condos. I misinterpreted your words.

I appreciate the fact that you post specific data on sowal, but the blog entries make it sound as if the market is on the upswing which is in actuality it is not. That is why I used the term spin.

Sales volume is on an upswing while prices are still dropping. IMHO prices will continue to drop over the next three years or so as foreclosure activity is still picking up.

I think this is just getting started. Realtors though will do well, they'll need to move property in larger volumes but I doubt that will be an issue. I'd be willing to call a bottom on sales volume. Prices however are a long way off from bottoming out.

 

[Em]

See comments above.

34 % increase in qty of sales over 2007 (51 sales in June 2007)

My typo. Should read (and I edited my post):34 % increase in qty of sales over 2007 (51 sales in June 2008)

(single family detached homes between Mack Bayou and Inlet Beach)
month year qty avg sale
Jan 2008 23 $876,036
Feb 2008 29 $687,420
Mar 2008 42 $605,784
Apr 2008 32 $1,082,743
May 2008 43 $719,194
Jun 2008 51 $831,649

 

[Em]

Here is your quote from the blog--

"Starting with the big picture first, home sales continue to be fairly level with 98 selling in South Walton, though we are down slightly compared to May of 2008 (110 sold)."

You did not clarify that the 98 included condos, SFH and townhomes. You said homes which in my simple mind means houses, not condos. I misinterpreted your words.

I appreciate the fact that you post specific data on sowal, but the blog entries make it sound as if the market is on the upswing which is in actuality it is not. That is why I used the term spin.

You are correct that I began with "home sales." I followed that with "lot sales." People consider their townhome, condo, and single family detached homes as their homes. I have started each of my real estate blogs with the combined residential, and this was no exception, but I apologize if that was misleading.

You say that may blog entry sound as though the market is on the upswing. I encourage you to go back and read my June 2008 blog, and tell me what in specific or general makes you think that. I went so far as to compare and contrast June 2008 to June in the peak of the market, 2005. I noted that inventory is more than twice what I'd like to see for both lots and homes. We are still in a down market, make no mistake, but we have seen a few months of steadiness in many areas. My post above, was to rebut your language that we are seeing our worst month this year. That is just not true for certain areas.

I sincerely invite you to subscribe (FREE) to my monthly email which includes the quantity of sales, ave list price, average sales price, and inventory quantity, breaking it out by area, type of property, with some areas and types combined. I also encourage questions, because as I mention, numbers can be deceiving sometimes.

 

[Kurt]

Murray is always smiling, but he doesn't "spin". Thanks for sharing Murray> I hope that others appreciate it as much as I do. I would enjoy hearing about specific deals from time to time that you find interesting. I don't just mean properties currently for sale but also details about interesting transactions pending or closed.

 

[TooFarTampa]

Sales volume is on an upswing while prices are still dropping. IMHO prices will continue to drop over the next three years or so as foreclosure activity is still picking up.

I think this is just getting started. Realtors though will do well, they'll need to move property in larger volumes but I doubt that will be an issue. I'd be willing to call a bottom on sales volume. Prices however are a long way off from bottoming out.

While I always find your 30-A Shopper Charts™ very interesting, what makes you think that foreclosure activity is picking up and not close to peaking? And why do you believe prices are a long way off from bottoming out?

Is there any way to tell how many more foreclosures might be coming down the pike?

 

[ClintClint]

The foreclosures are the pig in the python!!!! Until they clear the market, all the graphs and intuition don't mean squat. While all real estate is local, to a large extent, the ability for Buyers to buy has nothing to do with local conditions and many of the buyers are from non-local areas. If you want to know when the real estate market first starts ( 6-9 months before all these charts reflect changes) watch the "smart" money on wall street. I know what you're reaction is, but believe me these folks have access to info well before it trickles down to the public. You can't realistically follow the merger and aquisition activity, the hedge funds, or endowment fund activity, but you can follow the Homebuilders stocks thru their ETF sticker symbol XHB. Their loss has been much more extreme in this real estate downturn and their appreciation will far exceed the bouce back in the real estate market. Couple that with the two times leverage of the Proshares Ultra Real Estate, and no holding costs like physical real estate, I contend that you can get just as good R.O.I. with none of the hassle ( and get paid dividends in the meantime ).

 

[30ashopper]

While I always find your 30-A Shopper Charts? very interesting, what makes you think that foreclosure activity is picking up and not close to peaking? And why do you believe prices are a long way off from bottoming out?

Is there any way to tell how many more foreclosures might be coming down the pike?

The chart is a little deceiving, I probably shouldn't have included the month of July. (The last bar is incomplete by two weeks and in general will probably be a slow month for processing and filing.)

I base my assumption on the hunch that a majority of loans along 30-A were ALT-A loans, most of which have yet to reset. The best way to predict what's coming would be to do a survey of loan type and reset date for the area, which as far as I know is impossible without going through every loan contract manually. (Maybe that data is out there some where and I don't know about it?)

As far as prices, it's a general prediction. We're in a housing slump, and slumps last a long time. Plus there is evidence out there that a large cross section of housing along 30-A has yet to correct at all with a lot of people still holding out. Loan reset dates are looming closer however. Overall, I think a safe assumption would be that generally, prices will continue to decline.

In the short term, it's interesting to note that foreclosures in Walton are averaging around 6 months from first filing to landing on the market. So if you look at the graph above, count back 6 months and note that that month is the month that is landing in the market today. What is coming down the pike is everything in between that and now. My guess is the next six months of off season and foreclosures will have a major impact on price. Next years spring season will be very interesting.

"30-A Shopper Charts?" - I think that'll be my new signature!!

 

[SHELLY]

In the short term, it's interesting to note that foreclosures in Walton are averaging around 6 months from first filing to landing on the market. So if you look at the graph above, count back 6 months and note that that month is the month that is landing in the market today. What is coming down the pike is everything in between that and now. My guess is the next six months of off season and foreclosures will have a major impact on price. Next years spring season will be very interesting.

"30-A Shopper Charts?" - I think that'll be my new signature!!

Can you post your foreclosure chart?

.

 

[30ashopper]

Can you post your foreclosure chart?

I only have pre-foreclosure data. I've not found a way to get actual foreclosure counts out of county records.