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Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
What is the average price compared to prior year? There have been no chicken littles on this forum. All the bears have been right on the money and the bulls have been dead wrong.

The sky hasn't stopped falling.

Would an ECAR affiliated agent care to publish that data here so we can graph it out and really see where we are headed?



Joe, I respect your view on things. You're a veteran on this board and everyone here respects your opinion, myself included. But come on, is inventory really dropping when you look at the data overall? Are prices really increasing? We both look at the hot sheets. When was the last time we noted a "+10" in a price change hot list? Also, I've published graphs here based on Josh's ECAR inventory data. Is inventory really dropping?

I guess you could call me a bull, as opposed to a bear, but I don't hide from the fact that inventory is still high, and many properties are not listed, as their owners know their property won't sell at the wishful price right now. Prices are down from historic highs in 2005. To not recognize that, one would be blind.

To keep the conversation on the same track, I'll use single family homes and areas 16-19, Inlet Beach to Mack Bayou. However, I will mention that if you look at Combined Residential (detached homes, attached homes, and condos) for all of South Walton, you will see that inventory has steadily decreased, and hasn't been this low since Feb 2006. That said, it still needs to come down. Looking specifically at single family homes and areas 16-19, Inlet Beach to Mack Bayou and comparing June 2008 to June 2007, inventory has decreased by 8%, from 1542 to 1409. Avg sales price appears to be down signicantly, but if you take out the extreme high sale of $7.8 million from 2007, it is right in line, and comparing it to year to date of 2008, which the avg sale price was $803,083, you will see that it is higher than the avg. So you tell me if it is going up or down. Yes, it is below last years single month sales avg for June, but it is in line with 2008 sales, and higher than 3 out of 5 previous months for 2008. A better way to look at these figures is through a 3-month moving average, if anyone wants to run those through a chart.

It is easy to say that we are up or down, depending on the comparisons used.
I will attach a small chart for the last 18 months for you to see the comparisons questioned.
 

Miss Critter

Beach Fanatic
Mar 8, 2008
3,419
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My perfect beach
Regardless of whether inventory is up or down, how long will current supply take to sell, based upon current sales rates? I'd be interested to see that number for both homes/condos and for residential land.
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,852
3,468
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Right here!
I will attach a small chart for the last 18 months for you to see the comparisons questioned.

mmm raw data. thanks Joe.

inventsowal107-608.jpg
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,852
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Right here!
Considering the number of new listings that have landed in the last six months, I'd say a flatline (or even sightly increasing) inventory is good news. But at these inventory levels I think we'll continue to see downward price pressure for quite some time to come. Just my opinion of course, I could be wrong.
 

fisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 19, 2005
822
76
mmm raw data. thanks Joe.

inventsowal107-608.jpg


30a--go back and do a search for sales data and you can find inventory data going back to 2003. Inventory levels were as low as 150 at one point in time. It would be interesting to see you graph the data going back that far.
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,852
3,468
54
Right here!
Regardless of whether inventory is up or down, how long will current supply take to sell, based upon current sales rates? I'd be interested to see that number for both homes/condos and for residential land.

Years considering the current state of the loan market and the country's economic outlook.
 

fisher

Beach Fanatic
Sep 19, 2005
822
76
Avg sales price appears to be down signicantly, but if you take out the extreme high sale of $7.8 million from 2007, it is right in line, and comparing it to year to date of 2008, which the avg sale price was $803,083, you will see that it is higher than the avg. So you tell me if it is going up or down. Yes, it is below last years single month sales avg for June, but it is in line with 2008 sales, and higher than 3 out of 5 previous months for 2008. A better way to look at these figures is through a 3-month moving average, if anyone wants to run those through a chart.

It is easy to say that we are up or down, depending on the comparisons used.
I will attach a small chart for the last 18 months for you to see the comparisons questioned.


Thanks for the additional data. Even more revealing when you dig into it.

I took your numbers. Actually, based on those numbers, avg year to date sales price (eliminating the $7 million sale in 2007) in 2008 is $792k and in 2007 it was $954k. That's down 17%. The three month (vs 6 month) rolling is down slightly more at an 18% decrease. June sales price is down 25% versus prior year even after throwing out the $7 million sale in 2007.

So, where is it easy to show that prices are trending UP over prior year?
 
Last edited:

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
30a--go back and do a search for sales data and you can find inventory data going back to 2003. Inventory levels were as low as 150 at one point in time. It would be interesting to see you graph the data going back that far.
:dunno: Jan 1998 was the lowest inventory I've ever seen for that same area (16-19) for single family detached homes, and it was 266. Maybe you are looking at something else. For that particular area, it sure would be nice to get back to around 500 units of detached homes, like we had in 2001 and 2002. Looking back through time, you can see the major decrease to 311 in June 2004, as people began to hold on very tightly to their property. Every For Sale sign in a yard was already under contract, sometimes before the sign was even posted.
 

Smiling JOe

SoWal Expert
Nov 18, 2004
31,648
1,773
Fisher, I believe your post which brought all of the attention mentioned that June 2008 was the worst month we've seen this year. All of the information provided since that post shows otherwise. I don't recall saying that the avg sale price has been trending up since last year. What I have said is that the avg sales price for June 2008, for detached homes in areas 16-19, were in line with the avg sales price for all of 2008. I'm not sure how you are reading my posts as sales price of home sales is taking off to the sky, but that is what it sounds like you are suggesting that I'm saying. Would it help if I concur that the avg sales price for June 2008 for detached homes in areas 16-19 was significantly lower than June 2007? I do agree with that very narrowly-focussed assessment.
 

30ashopper

SoWal Insider
Apr 30, 2008
6,852
3,468
54
Right here!
30a--go back and do a search for sales data and you can find inventory data going back to 2003. Inventory levels were as low as 150 at one point in time. It would be interesting to see you graph the data going back that far.

From a previous thread, for all of walton from okaloosa to seacrest I believe, the data was provided by Josh McLean -

ecarinventory-05-06-07-08.jpg



I've got raw sales counts and valuation going back to 1990 if anybody wants to see it.
 
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