Bob,
I hope you aren't betting your life savings on the up, up and up theory. I agree wth pg0178. The demographiscs and prices and inventory don't add up to any more growth. In fact, all the signs point to a nasty fall. Any historical runup in stocks, real estate, bonds, gold, silver, etc. like the current runup in real estate has ALWAYS historically ended in a crash. If you own property, but your life, net worth and living don't depend on these high prices, you will be fine. But, watch out if you're betting the farm.
The market in SoWal isn't just frothy, there is "irrational exuberance" abounding with all of those that don't see the warning signs staring them in the face.
Within 12 months, come back and read these posts by us pessimists (I believe most of us on the pessimistic side are trained financial professionals). I hope you can call me chicken little at that time, but I wouldn't bet on it. 100% appreciation over the course of a year of two is not reasonable. Those that have been in for a couple of years should be okay. those that got in the last 12 to 18 months will get slaughtered if they were counting on flipping at a profit and they don't have the staying power to hold the property (or in the case of some of the developments, heaven forbid that must build a house within 2 to 3 years of purchase).
I remember having these exact same conversations with the stock market Bulls in 1999. They were sure the model had changed forever and that the old ways of looking at the market were no longer valid. They laughed at me for putting my money in money market funds. they weren't laughing in 2000/2001. And, look at the market since the crash. It's basicaly been flat for 5 years. Look at Japan. Stagnant for 20 years after huge runups in real estate and then a crash. The current runup looks too good to be true--so it probably is.
All that said, I still love my home in SoWal.
good luck.
