Niceville's seen home prices pretty much double in the past 2 years, though they're still significantly cheaper than South Walton. Problem is that there isn't much buildable land in circulation right now for new arrivals, so the new development that does go in tends to command a premium. There's also been some massive flipping involved in a couple of new townhouse developments in the pipeline.
There's been some rumblings that the Ruckel family is finally going to start developing parts of 1400 acres they're holding north of the airport and east of the college. Based on prices that homes in other Ruckel developments are going for, I'd guess single family would start in the $500K range.
And to think when we bought in Bluewater in 2001, most homes were going for $75/sf.