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traderx

Beach Fanatic
Mar 25, 2008
2,133
467
Interesting.

I have never mastered TA, as you clearly have. Indeed most traders. The human mind has a need to see patterns I guess, and you guys obviously do, but to me short term moves just look totally random.

Also you wonder why TA would actually work? Why would (say) a head and shoulders pattern be a predictor of a move just because it did once? If some great shocking news event takes place the stock flies or tanks accordingly whatever the chart might indicate. If the Bollinger bands are tightening or not!

The nearest I can think of to get my head round it is that so many pro traders use it that the perceived TA points of resistance and support actually become so. Like a self fulfilling prophecy. Then if the traded instrument breaks out there is a rush for shorts to cover or longs to bail perpetuating the move in whichever direction this takes place.

Still it works for some people. And not just the vendors of charting software!

I am a fundamentalist myself, although obviously I keep a close watch on the charts. With a long term time frame by your standards.

Was going to swap trading ideas but if you are a chartist we aren't really on the same page unfortunately.

Best of luck anyway!

In no way have I mastered TA. I actually prefer to keep my graph setups simple as possible. I don't do H&S, necklines, pitchforks, Fibonacci, etc. I am naturally analytical so it presented a challenge early in my trading career. After some time, I learned that I needed to simplify.

The overarching success pointer is trader psychology. Dr. Alexander Elder writes extensively about this. I was very fortunate to find his book early in my endeavors. As for actual trading, what distinguishes successful trading IMHO is a solid program of risk management. I had to learn this the hard way but I learned it completely. Why do lessons have to be so expensive? :lol:

After the 2000 tech bubble collapse, CNBC loved to say that daytrading was dead; however, studies by the likes of Laszlo Birinyi showed they were more active than ever. There is good money to be made trading but like any other profession, few make the top money. The best trader I know made 1,000% in 2002 trading SMH on hourly graphs. I have had some good years but nothing like that. He has icewater in his veins. :shock:
 

traderx

Beach Fanatic
Mar 25, 2008
2,133
467

yorkshireman

Beach Comber
Jul 4, 2005
24
12
In no way have I mastered TA. I actually prefer to keep my graph setups simple as possible. I don't do H&S, necklines, pitchforks, Fibonacci, etc. I am naturally analytical so it presented a challenge early in my trading career. After some time, I learned that I needed to simplify.

The overarching success pointer is trader psychology. Dr. Alexander Elder writes extensively about this. I was very fortunate to find his book early in my endeavors. As for actual trading, what distinguishes successful trading IMHO is a solid program of risk management. I had to learn this the hard way but I learned it completely. Why do lessons have to be so expensive? :lol:

After the 2000 tech bubble collapse, CNBC loved to say that daytrading was dead; however, studies by the likes of Laszlo Birinyi showed they were more active than ever. There is good money to be made trading but like any other profession, few make the top money. The best trader I know made 1,000% in 2002 trading SMH on hourly graphs. I have had some good years but nothing like that. He has icewater in his veins. :shock:

Come into my trading room was one of the first trading books I ever read. And it is still one of the best. I don't agree with everything, we all have our own styles, but in general terms he nailed every trading principle around.

As he says it is all psychology. In fact you could make a case that successful traders are abnormal psychologically. Manys the time I have mooted what I think to be a brilliant idea to friends and they just can't see it. Intellectually they understand the case, but it is beyond their comfort zone. The idea of risk terrifies them. Opportunity cost doesn't bother them at all.

Then you point out after it has been successful and they rationalise their reasons for not getting in. But you know if the opportunity presented itself again they still wouldn't take it.

We are not hard wired to make money in the market. Our primitive responses of fear and flight may have been great in pre history but they prompt exactly the wrong reaction under extreme market stress. To sell when you should buy, and buy when you should sell.

Great traders go against the herd. Average ones go with it in a disciplined way. And the sheep get sheared. :D

So personally I think traders are born not made. Yes you can learn and get better. In fact you have to, as you say or you'll go bust. The market finds out your weaknesses. It is brutal in that way. But some people are way better than others naturally and they are actually the most abnormal. In usual human terms.
 

Bob

SoWal Insider
Nov 16, 2004
10,366
1,391
O'Wal
SEC boss promises action on short-selling - Stocks & economy- msnbc.com
WASHINGTON - The Securities and Exchange Commission is carefully weighing options for reining in rushes of short-selling that can sink stock prices and will work seriously on a plan to give shareholders access to annual corporate ballots for directors, the agency's chief said Monday.

SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro and the other four SEC commissioners are scheduled to vote Wednesday on new short-selling rules ? a change being pushed by investors and lawmakers ? and are expected to put forward several separate proposals for public comment.

"We will be very deliberative in our effort to determine what is in the best interest of investors," Schapiro said in an address to a conference of the Council of Institutional Investors, a group representing public, corporate and union pension funds that together have an estimated $3 trillion in assets.
 

Miss Kitty

Meow
Jun 10, 2005
47,011
1,131
71
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